Board dynamics wargame

Board Dynamics Wargame — CEO 去留的博弈推演

核心命题：Series A 之后，创始人是否能保住 CEO 位置，取决于 board 政治，不取决于业绩。Travis Kalanick 的 Uber 在他被 fire 时 valuation 是 $70B，Sam Altman 在 2023/11 被 fire 时 OpenAI 是全球最重要 AI 公司。业绩不是护身符。

定位：

• founder-fundraising-wargame = 融资阶段博弈（pre-close）
• term-sheet-negotiator = 条款博弈（TS 阶段）
• vc-due-diligence-simulator = DD 博弈（TS 到 close）
• board-dynamics-wargame = 融后董事会博弈（post-close，ongoing）

卫星文件：

• board-coup-casebook.md：10 个 CEO 罢免案例深度拆解 + 5 个 CEO 守位成功案例

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Part 1：董事会的 faction 结构

5 类 board member

类型	行为模式	在 coup 中的角色
Founder（you）	产品/愿景驱动，emotional stake	核心被 target
VC Preferred（Lead VC）	Fund return 驱动	最可能主导 coup 或 veto 你
VC Preferred（Follow-on VC）	跟随 lead VC	Swing vote，可 swing either way
Founder-chosen Independent	你选的 advisor，通常忠诚	Your 核心支持者
VC-chosen or Negotiated Independent	VC network，通常偏 VC	VC 的核心支持者

Typical board 演进

Seed 阶段：1-2 founder only (ideal) 或 1 founder + 1 VC observer Series A：2 founder + 1 VC + 1 independent (5 seats total) Series B：2 founder + 2 VC + 1 independent (5 seats total) Series C+：2-3 founder + 3-4 VC + 2-3 independent (7-9 seats total)

关键数学

创始人被 fire 的数学条件：

• 5-person board：VC + 1 independent vs founder + 1 ally = 2:2 tie → independent 决定胜负
• 7-person board：2 VC + 2 independent = 4 vs 3 founder-aligned

结论：只要 board 不是 founder majority，你 always 在 risk 区。

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Part 2：12 种 Boardroom Move

Move 1：Quiet Polling

VC 在 board meeting 之前 单独 call 每个 independent + other VC，试探意见。如果发现 majority 支持 fire CEO，才在 meeting 提议。

你的 counter：你自己 quiet poll。任何 board meeting 之前，知道每个 member 的 position。

Move 2：CEO Succession Sub-committee

VC 提议成立 "CEO succession planning committee"（看起来是 governance best practice）。这是 coup preparation，目的是 formalize 谁接替 CEO 的讨论。

你的 counter：proactively 提议 succession planning（从位置主导），或者要求 founder participation in committee。

Move 3：Independent 任命

VC 推动 board 加 "independent director"，提供 "industry expertise"。实际是 VC 网络的 loyalist。

你的 counter：Approval right on independent directors 是 TS 时必须争取的。没有这个的话，永远在 risk。

Move 4：Information Asymmetry Attack

VC 要求额外的 monthly CEO metrics + direct access to team（超出 standard info rights）。这是 building own intel channel，绕过 CEO。

你的 counter：所有 team communication 必须 through CEO 或 CEO-approved channel。Info right 不是 "inspect whenever"。

Move 5：Back-channel to Key Employee

VC 直接 call 你的 CTO / CFO / VP Sales，了解 "real situation"。这是 building employee loyalty outside CEO。

你的 counter：在 closing TS 时就 set expectation 「all board/employee interactions go through me」。如果 VC 违反，这是严重信号。

Move 6：Portfolio Founder Referrals

VC 让其他 portfolio company founder "meet" 你，实际是评估是否是 CEO material。这是 secret assessment。

你的 counter：任何 founder intro 要求 context（why are we meeting?）。Proactively propose your own peer groups.

Move 7：Performance Framing

VC 在 board meeting 重新 frame 过去 12 月的执行——把 "original plan" 改为更严厉的 KPI，然后 claim CEO "missed goals"。

你的 counter：每个 board meeting start with a recap of agreed goals (get them in minutes). 不要让 goalpost 被后移。

Move 8："Consultant" Engagement

VC 提议请 "management consultant" 评估 org effectiveness。Consultant 通常 report to VC 不是 founder，结论 predetermined。

你的 counter：Consultant 的 engagement letter 必须 require founder approval + report 必须 simultaneously go to founder and VC.

Move 9：Financial Pressure Tactic

VC 在 budget 审批时 squeeze you——cut budget，force hard decisions，然后 blame "missed metrics" on CEO。

你的 counter：Budget approvals 必须 tied to agreed plan，不是 arbitrary 重新定义。每个 budget cut 的 rationale 必须 documented.

Move 10：Pre-meeting Coalition Building

VC 在每个 board meeting 前 24-48 小时，和 other board members 有 "pre-meeting call"——实际是 alignment session。Founder 通常被 excluded。

你的 counter：Propose "All board members have pre-meeting 1-on-1 with CEO" as standard. Or at minimum, request inclusion in VC pre-meeting.

Move 11：Confidential 1-on-1 with Independent

VC 和 independent director 有 "friendly dinner"，frame 为 board building。实际是 recruit independent 去 coup 阵营。

你的 counter：Proactively have your own dinners with independents. Build your relationship capital before VC does.

Move 12：The Surprise Motion

Coup 的最后一步：在 board meeting 突然 propose "resolution to remove CEO and appoint interim CEO [name]"，before founder 能 prepare。

你的 counter：Pre-meeting，demand 所有 resolutions 24 小时 before meeting 发给所有 member. 如果 surprise motion 出现，你有 standing objection "improperly noticed"（依赖 company bylaws）.

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Part 3：Coup 的 Triggering Events（12 类）

Category A：Performance-based triggers

Trigger 1：Missed 3+ major milestones 连续 Trigger 2：Revenue forecast miss > 30% Trigger 3：Cash runway < 6 months unexpected Trigger 4：Major customer churn concentration

Category B：People-based triggers

Trigger 5：Cofounder departure（especially co-CEO） Trigger 6：C-level turnover > 2 in 12 months Trigger 7：Board complaint from 3+ employees (through VC channel) Trigger 8：Pattern of "bad hire" decisions

Category C：Governance/trust triggers

Trigger 9：Missed board disclosure (material info VC didn't know about) Trigger 10：Related party transaction without approval Trigger 11：Legal / regulatory issue not disclosed Trigger 12：Founder personal issue affecting work (divorce, illness, substance)

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Part 4：Coup-Proofing 7-Layer Defense

Layer 1：TS Level Defense

• Board composition：至少 odd number + founder 或 founder-chosen independent 多数
• Protective provisions 不覆盖 CEO hire/fire（keep this at board level，don't add preferred veto）
• Dual-class stock：如果可以，争取 super-voting on CEO election（controversial but effective）

Layer 2：Relationship Defense

• 每个 board member 每月 1-on-1（30 minutes，formal）
• Every independent 每季度 informal dinner
• Quarterly "where are we heading" alignment discussion
• 知道每个 member 的 personal incentive (what makes their fund look good)

Layer 3：Information Defense

• Weekly or bi-weekly CEO update email 给全 board
• Proactive flagging of 问题 (VC 发现 problem before you told them = huge trust loss)
• Monthly KPI dashboard standardized（保证你定义 the metrics, 不是他们后来重新 frame）

Layer 4：Coalition Defense

• Relationship capital with 2 of 3 non-founder board members
• Cultivate independent directors' loyalty through meaningful engagement
• If possible, have a non-VC institutional investor (like strategic corporate投资 or large angel) on board

Layer 5：Governance Defense

• Enforce proper notice for board meetings + resolutions (24 小时 advance copy)
• Standing "CEO's agenda" 在每个 meeting（不让 VC 主导 agenda）
• Detailed board minutes (prevent revision history of "agreed goals")

Layer 6：Performance Defense

• Over-communicate on execution (weekly metrics + monthly summary)
• Set conservative goals + systematically over-deliver
• If you're going to miss: pre-announce 4-6 weeks before, with mitigation plan

Layer 7：Succession Defense

• Preemptively propose "CEO development framework"（get in front of it）
• Identify + groom 2 internal CEO candidates (gives board comfort that succession doesn't have to be external)
• Counter-intuitive move: make yourself "more replaceable" in operations → harder to fire you for being "indispensable"

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Part 5：Coup 发生的 Playbook

如果 coup 已经在进行（你 detect signals），步骤：

Step 1：Detect (Month 0)

识别信号：

• VC 开始 "pre-meeting" calls
• Independent 变 distant
• VC 提议 new board member / committee
• Info request 变密集
• Key employee 被 directly reached out

Step 2：Assess (Day 1-7)

• Quiet call 每个 board member: assess their position
• Talk to trusted advisors（lawyer + founder mentors）
• Determine if coup is truly happening or you're paranoid

Step 3：Leverage (Day 7-14)

如果 coup is real，你的 leverage 是什么：

• Financial：是否有 cash runway? If crisis needs you to raise, you have leverage
• Operational：是否有 key customer relationships dependent on you? Key employees who would follow you out?
• Strategic：是否有 critical M&A or partnership in flight?
• Legal：founder 的 IP assignments 条款、employment rights

Step 4：Negotiate (Day 14-30)

选择路径：

Path A：Fight to stay

• Line up support from your side (independent you have relationship with)
• Prepare "reconciliation" plan to address board concerns
• Request "cooling off" period

Path B：Negotiate exit package

• Accept you're out，negotiate：
  • Severance (6-12 months)
  • Accelerated vesting (100% preferred)
  • Consulting agreement (stay connected, potentially transition smoothly)
  • Non-compete relaxation
  • Stock / IPO / acquisition participation rights

Path C：Nuclear option

• Resign + take team + sue for contractual violations
• 只在 you have strong legal position + cash to fight + willing to go public

Step 5：Execute (Day 30+)

• If fighting：board meeting prep, line up your votes
• If exiting：ensure contracts signed before announcement

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Part 6：Post-Coup Options

Outcome 1：CEO stays

• 需要 rebuilding trust with VC
• Accept some concessions (more oversight, new hires)
• Document agreements in writing

Outcome 2：CEO stays with reduced role

• "Executive Chairman" or "Chief Product Officer"
• 通常是 transitional (6-12 months)
• Signal is you're being "managed out gracefully"

Outcome 3：CEO transitions out

• Negotiate exit package (see above)
• Retain board seat if possible (for founder perspective)
• Retain meaningful equity

Outcome 4：Nuclear exit

• Legal battle with VC
• Public narrative war
• Often results in years of litigation

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Part 7：经典案例快速回顾（详见 board-coup-casebook.md）

案例	公司	年份	CEO	Outcome
Sam Altman	OpenAI	2023	Fire → Reinstate (4 days)	Full recovery
Travis Kalanick	Uber	2017	Fire	Permanent exit
Steve Jobs	Apple	1985	Fire	Exile + Return
Steve Jobs	Apple	1997	Coup succeeded	Reinstated
Jack Dorsey	Twitter	2008	Fire	Returned 2015
Parker Conrad	Zenefits	2016	Forced resign	Founded Rippling later
Adam Neumann	WeWork	2019	Forced resign	$1.7B severance
Bob Swan	Intel	2021	Replaced	Out
Kenneth Lin	Credit Karma	2020 (acquisition)	Stayed	Full exit
Andy Rubin	Android	2014	Forced out	Founded Essential

Pattern：

• Founder who are visionaries but not operators 最脆弱
• Founder who have super-voting stock 最 resilient
• Timing matters: growth phase 比 maturity phase 更容易 fire CEO

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Part 8：Red Flag / Yellow Flag Catalog

Red Flags (Existential)

• VC 要求 CEO succession planning committee (and you're not leading)
• 3+ board members 有 "quiet 1-on-1s" excluding you
• Key employee 被 VC direct approach
• Board agenda 被 VC 主导
• Protective provisions 新增 CEO-related items

Yellow Flags (Warning)

• VC 开始用 formal language in board meetings (less casual)
• Info requests 超出 standard
• Independent director becomes distant
• Founders being asked "succession plans" more frequently

Green Flags (Healthy)

• Board debates issues openly
• Founder relationship with each board member has trust
• VC supports founder in tough decisions
• Independent directors bring expertise not politics

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执行指令（给 LLM 代理）

使用此 skill 的 prompt 模板：

Scenario A：Board 设计 (Pre-TS)

我在谈 Series A TS，VC 提议 board composition [describe]. 帮我：
1. 分析这个 composition 对 coup risk 的影响
2. 提出我应该 counter 的 TS 条款
3. 给我 independent director 选择的 criteria

Scenario B：Ongoing Board 管理

我是 CEO，我的 board composition 是 [describe]. 最近感觉 [specific signal]. 帮我：
1. 识别这是 Red/Yellow/Green flag
2. 如果 coup is happening，assess my leverage
3. Propose 具体应对策略

Scenario C：Coup 发生时

我 detected coup signals: [list them]. 帮我：
1. 评估 coup 是否 real (or paranoia)
2. 如果 real，我的 4 个 options (fight / negotiate / nuclear / exit) 的 pros/cons
3. Specific playbook for 下 30 days

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与其他 skills 的协作

• 前置：term-sheet-negotiator（board composition 在 TS 时 set）
• 前置：founder-fundraising-wargame（理解融资 + board 整体）
• 并行：vc-due-diligence-simulator（post-close 也需要 ongoing diligence on board）

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校准锚点 (V1.0)

• 2023-2024 environment：LP pressure on VC to show returns → more aggressive CEO replacement
• Post-OpenAI drama：Some VCs more cautious about coups (bad PR)
• AI-native companies：Founder concentration higher → dual-class and super-voting more common

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changelog

• v1.0 2026-04-17：首版。提出「5 类 board member + 12 种 boardroom move + 12 类 coup triggers + 7 层 coup-proofing defense + coup 发生时 playbook + 4 种 post-coup outcomes」。基于 OpenAI/Uber/Apple 经典案例。卫星文件 board-coup-casebook.md 待完成。