Outreach diagnosis

Outreach diagnosis (why you're getting zero)

Sending more of what isn't working just burns your list and your morale. This skill finds the real bottleneck in a fundraising outreach funnel and tells you honestly whether to keep going, change the message, change the channel, or stop and fix something upstream first.

Read shared/references/outreach-ethics.md first.

First, the honest baseline (so you don't panic at the wrong thing)

• Cold outreach is a low-yield channel. Even well-done cold email to investors converts on the order of ~1% to a meeting. Zero from a small cold batch (say <50) is statistically normal — not a verdict on you or your company.
• Warm intros are a different game. If warm intros are also converting to nothing, that's a real signal — targeting, pitch, or readiness, not the channel. So separate the two before diagnosing. Same number "0 meetings" means very different things cold vs warm.

Gather the real funnel (by channel and tier)

Ask for the actual numbers, split cold vs warm and by target tier:

• Contacts reached, opens (email), replies, meetings, advances.
• Which were warm vs cold; which tier (A/B/C from investor-targeting).
• The exact message(s) sent and the target list.

Localize the drop-off → the culprit

Where it dies	Likely cause	Fix (skill)
No opens (email)	subject line, deliverability, wrong/guessed address	cold-email (subject); verify contacts
Opens, no replies	weak/generic hook, no real personalization, targeting off, or you're not yet compelling (traction/readiness)	cold-email hook · investor-targeting · readiness check below
Replies, no meetings	vague ask, or polite passes = a fit/traction signal	cold-email ask · read the passes
Meetings, no advance	the pitch, the traction, or genuine stage/fit mismatch	pitch-narrative · cold-call objections
Warm intros also dying	targeting or readiness, NOT the channel	targeting + readiness below

The four root causes (and how to tell which)

1. Targeting — are these actually investors who fund your stage + sector, right now? A list of the wrong people converts at zero no matter how good the email. Check against investor-targeting (stage/check/sector/recent activity).
2. Hook / message — does line 1 prove you researched them and give a specific reason? Generic = ignored. (cold-email.)
3. Readiness / traction — the honest one: sometimes the message is fine and the answer is "not yet fundable at this ask." If even warm, well-targeted intros pass, the raise may need more proof or a sharper narrative first. (pitch-narrative; and see the readiness check.)
4. Channel — cold when your profile needs warm. Unknown founder + cold + crowded space = near-zero; the fix is warm paths and network-bringing channels (warm-path-finder, fundraising-agents), not more cold.

Readiness check (the honest gate)

Before sending more, sanity-check that you're actually investor-ready for this ask: is there a real "why now", a credible traction/insight, a believable use of funds, and a check-size-appropriate valuation? If several are soft, stop outreach and fix the story/traction first — more emails won't move a raise the market isn't ready to fund. This is not a knock on you; it's cheaper to learn now than after burning your best intros.

Output

• The funnel with the numbers, cold vs warm.
• The single bottleneck (targeting / hook / readiness / channel) with the evidence.
• The specific next move (which skill), and honestly whether to keep sending, change the message, switch to warm/agents, or pause and fix upstream.
• A "stop doing this" note if a channel or list is clearly dead.

Bilingual / 中文

中文/跨境同理。先把冷 vs 暖分开看:冷触达零结果是常态(≈1% 到会),别归咎自己; 但暖介绍也零转化才是真信号——多半是目标错、钩子弱、或还没到可融状态。按漏斗掉在 哪一环定位病根,该改钩子改钩子、该换暖路径(→ warm-path-finder / fundraising-agents) 换渠道、该先补 traction/故事就先停手补。多发无效邮件只会烧掉名单和士气。

Refuse / push back when

• Asked to just "write more/better cold emails" when the real problem is targeting or readiness → diagnose first; a better email to the wrong list still converts at zero.
• Asked to keep blasting a dead channel → say stop, and point to the upstream fix.