Tam sam som
A founder/indie-hacker skills pack for Claude Code, Cursor, Codex and Gemini CLI: market research, competitor analysis, outcome-based pricing, landing-page copy, MVP spec, cold outreach, growth experiments and fundraising narrative.
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Size a market with TAM / SAM / SOM using both top-down and bottom-up methods. Use when the user asks "how big is this market", needs market sizing for a pitch deck or business case, or is validating whether an opportunity is worth pursuing. Produces defensible numbers with stated assumptions.
SKILL.md
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tam-sam-som — market sizing
When to use
The user wants a credible market size for a deck, memo, or go/no-go decision, or asks "is this market big enough?". Investors expect a bottom-up number they can sanity-check — not a "1% of a $X trillion market" hand-wave.
Process
- Define the unit of demand precisely (who pays, for what, how often).
- TAM (Total Addressable Market) — everyone who could ever buy.
- SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) — the slice you can reach with your product, geography, and channel today.
- SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) — what you can realistically win in 3–5 years given competition and capacity.
- Compute it two ways and reconcile:
- Top-down: industry report figure × filters (segment, region, ICP %).
- Bottom-up: (# target customers) × (annual contract value) × (capture %). Bottom-up is the one investors trust; lead with it.
- State every assumption and its source. Show the formula, not just the result.
What to produce
- A short table: TAM / SAM / SOM with the number, method, and key assumptions.
- One bottom-up formula written out (e.g.,
120,000 SMB dental clinics × $3,600 ACV × 3% = $13M SOM). - A sensitivity note: how the SOM moves if capture or ACV is ±50%.
Pitfalls
- Don't inflate TAM to look big — a huge TAM with no bottom-up path reads as naive.
- Don't confuse "market size" with "revenue you'll get" (that's SOM, and smaller).
- Cite the year and source of any top-down figure; stale numbers get challenged.
Report back
Give the three numbers, the bottom-up formula, the assumptions, and a one-line judgement: is the SOM large enough to support the business the user wants?