Valuation engine
Skill alzadjaliaafra-hash/murshidi-knowledge-layer/models/valuation-engine
Modular, fine-tuning-ready knowledge architecture for financial-domain LLMs — 9 domain models, each an activatable skill with knowledge corpus, instruction dataset, and held-out evals.
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Corporate valuation engine grounded in academic finance — DCF family (FCFF, FCFE, APV), CAPM and WACC, beta levering, growth and terminal value, relative valuation multiples, and distressed-firm valuation including equity-as-call-option and private-company adjustments. Activate with /val, "valuation", "DCF", "WACC", "fair value", or "what is it worth".
SKILL.md
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Corporate Valuation Engine
A complete valuation framework grounded in peer-reviewed academic finance (Damodaran, Fernández equivalence proofs, Koller/McKinsey ROIC-growth framework, Ohlson/Feltham residual income). The consistency principle governs everything: match cash flows to their correct discount rate, use market values for weights, normalize cyclical earnings, and adjust explicitly for survival probability in young or distressed firms.
Discounted Cash Flow Family
| Framework | Formula |
|---|---|
| Equity valuation | Σ CF_to_equity_t / (1 + k_e)^t |
| Firm valuation | Σ CF_to_firm_t / (1 + WACC)^t |
| APV | Unlevered firm value + PV(tax shield) − expected bankruptcy costs |
| FCFF | EBIT(1−t) + Depreciation − CapEx − ΔWorking Capital |
| FCFE | Net Income − (CapEx − Depreciation) − ΔWC + (New Debt − Debt Repaid) |
Fernández's equivalence proofs show all discounting variants yield identical intrinsic value when assumptions are consistent — divergent answers signal inconsistent assumptions, not model choice.
Cost of Capital
| Component | Formula |
|---|---|
| CAPM | E(R_i) = R_f + β_i [E(R_m) − R_f] |
| WACC | k_e·E/(D+E) + k_d(1−t)·D/(D+E) |
| Beta unlevering | β_u = β_L / [1 + (1−t)(D/E)] |
| Beta relevering | β_L = β_u [1 + (1−t)(D/E)] |
Growth & Terminal Value
EPS growth = Retention Ratio × ROE. EBIT growth = Reinvestment Rate × ROC. Terminal value follows Gordon Growth: TV_n = CF_{n+1} / (r − g_n). Only growth funded at ROIC > WACC creates value (McKinsey diagnostic) — growth at ROIC below WACC destroys it.
Relative Valuation (fundamentals-anchored multiples)
| Multiple | Driver formula |
|---|---|
| P/E | Payout × (1+g) / (k_e − g) |
| P/BV | ROE × Payout × (1+g) / (k_e − g) |
| P/S | Net Margin × Payout × (1+g) / (k_e − g) |
| EV/Sales | After-tax Op Margin × (1 − Reinvestment) × (1+g) / (WACC − g) |
Forward-looking multiples outperform historical ones; always adjust comparisons for the fundamental drivers above.
Distressed & Private Company Valuation
Equity as a call option (Black-Scholes): Equity = V·N(d1) − D·e^(−rt)·N(d2) — equity in a distressed firm has option value even when firm value sits below the face value of debt.
Distress-adjusted value: Going Concern Value × (1 − π_distress) + Distress Sale Value × π_distress.
Private-company adjustments (Damodaran): Total Beta = sector unlevered beta ÷ correlation with market, relevered at company D/E (owners cannot diversify firm-specific risk); synthetic credit rating from interest-coverage lookup → default spread → pre-tax k_d = R_f + default spread + country risk premium; illiquidity discount 0.25 − 0.04 × ln(Revenue in USD millions), adjusted for profitability and block size, bounded [5%, 40%]; key-person discount 0–25% based on founder dependence and succession readiness.
Output Protocol
Lead with the number that matters (enterprise or equity value, valuation gap, implied ROIC premium). Support with the structural reason. Close with the action it implies. Triangulate at least two methods, name every trade-off, and show the full calculation chain.
Resources
knowledge/methodology.md— formula register with worked examplesdataset/train.jsonl— instruction-tuning pairseval/eval.jsonl— held-out evaluation questions