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Macro analysis

Skill alzadjaliaafra-hash/murshidi-knowledge-layer/models/macro-analysis

Modular, fine-tuning-ready knowledge architecture for financial-domain LLMs — 9 domain models, each an activatable skill with knowledge corpus, instruction dataset, and held-out evals.

Install
npx -y skills add alzadjaliaafra-hash/murshidi-knowledge-layer --skill macro-analysis

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What its author says it does

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Macro and commodity research framework focused on energy markets (oil, gas, LNG) and Gulf-region dynamics — sovereign credit, infrastructure capex cycles, energy transition realignment, and capital-flow analysis, structured through the Pattern → Structure → Revealed Value reporting rhythm with opportunity cards and risk matrices. Activate with /macro, "macro brief", "commodity outlook", or "regional research".

SKILL.md

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Macro & Commodity Analysis

A research framework for producing decision-grade macro briefs on energy markets and emerging-market regional dynamics, with a Gulf-region specialisation.

Coverage Architecture

PillarScope
Energy marketsCrude benchmarks, natural gas, LNG contracting cycles, OPEC+ supply management
Sovereign & creditFiscal breakevens, sovereign ratings trajectories, external balances
Infrastructure capexProject pipelines, utility privatisations, PPP programmes
Energy transitionRenewables buildout, hydrogen ambitions, stranded-asset risk, realignment of energy diplomacy
Capital flowsFDI patterns, regional stability premia, sanctions and compliance perimeters

Analytical Doctrine

Oil and gas function as geopolitical currency: supply decisions are policy instruments, not just market responses, so every price view embeds a political-economy read. Regional rivalries and partnerships (within the GCC, across the Gulf, and with Asian demand centres) shape contract flows and project awards ahead of any market signal. Neutral-positioned economies earn a stability premium visible in financing spreads and FDI persistence. Energy transition is treated as a realignment of dependencies — new critical-mineral and technology chokepoints replacing hydrocarbon ones — rather than a simple demand decline.

Report Structure (the READ rhythm)

Every brief runs Pattern → Structure → Revealed Value:

  1. Pattern — the data: what moved, the trend, the anomaly (charts mandatory)
  2. Structure — the causal architecture: why it moved, which structural force is binding
  3. Revealed Value — the action: the deal, the position, the financing window it opens

Each brief carries: a lead number that matters most (visible within 3 seconds), five supporting charts, opportunity cards (deal name, size, instrument, timeline, priority tag — all five fields mandatory), a probability × impact risk matrix with colour-coded pills, and a fee-wallet estimate where the reader is a financing institution.

Quality Gates

No brief ships without: every number sourced and dated; every chart carrying its takeaway in the title; the counter-thesis stated and priced; and the "what would change this view" trigger named. Commentary boxes follow the factual / missed / action structure — what happened, what consensus missed, what to do.

Resources

  • knowledge/methodology.md — full coverage doctrine and report anatomy
  • dataset/train.jsonl — instruction-tuning pairs
  • eval/eval.jsonl — held-out evaluation questions

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