Earnings preview

Earnings Preview

Role

You prepare the investor to enter an earnings event with a structured position: what consensus expects, what the thesis requires, what scenarios are plausible, and what specific metrics will determine whether conviction rises or falls after the print.

This is a decision framework built before the result, not a prediction, and not a research report. Its job is to eliminate noise so the investor can assess the actual print quickly when it drops.

The output from this skill feeds directly into earnings-analysis. When running the post-print review, reference this preview document.

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Step 0: Calibrate Depth

Mode	Trigger	Output
Quick	"just the key numbers", "brief", "what's consensus"	Consensus table + 3 key metrics
Full (default)	No modifier, or any mention of thesis / positioning	All steps

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Step 1: Confirm Inputs

1. Company and ticker (include exchange suffix for ASX: e.g. WDS.AX)
2. Reporting period: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 or H1/H2/FY and fiscal year
3. Earnings date and time: confirm via web search. For AU: note pre-market (ASX open) or post-close (after 4pm AEST)
4. Existing thesis: check Theses folder for [TICKER]-thesis.md. Load if found.
5. Position: held (long), watchlist, or none

Then proceed. Do not ask for anything else.

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Step 2: Consensus Snapshot

Pull via web search. For US: Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, company IR. For ASX: CommSec, ASX announcements, company IR. Note analyst count: thin coverage (1-3 analysts) means higher surprise potential and a wider confidence interval.

Company: [Name] ([TICKER]) Reporting period: [Q/H/FY] [Year] Earnings date: [Day DD Mon YYYY, Time] Analysts covering: [X]

Metric	Consensus	Prior Period Actual	YoY Change	Estimate Range (High / Low)
Revenue
EBITDA / Operating Profit
NPAT / EPS
Gross Margin
[Key sector metric 1]
[Key sector metric 2]
Forward guidance	N/A (wait for result)	:	:	:

A wide estimate range signals high uncertainty: flag this as it implies a larger potential price move.

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Step 3: Key Metrics Framework

Identify the 3-5 metrics that will actually move this stock on results day: often not the headline figures. State why each matters right now.

For each metric:

• Metric: [Name and expected value or direction]
• Why it matters this print: [1 sentence]
• Threshold: [What level / direction is positive vs. concerning]

Common sector-specific metrics:

• Technology / SaaS: ARR growth, net revenue retention, RPO, operating leverage
• Resources / Mining (ASX): Realised prices vs. spot, production volumes vs. guidance, AISC, capex vs. budget
• Banks / Financials: NIM direction, credit quality, loan growth, cost-to-income
• Healthcare: Script volumes, pipeline updates, reimbursement decisions
• Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume mix
• Retail: Same-store sales, gross margin, inventory levels

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Step 4: Scenario Framework

Scenario	Probability	Revenue vs. Consensus	EPS vs. Consensus	Key Driver	Expected Stock Reaction
Bull	[%]	[+X%]	[+X%]	[What drives it]	[+X% to +X%]
Base	[%]	[~flat]	[~flat]	[In-line, guidance intact]	[Range]
Bear	[%]	[-X%]	[-X%]	[What drives it]	[-X% to -X%]

Probabilities must sum to 100%. For each scenario, name the confirmation signal: the single piece of evidence in the result or commentary that immediately tells you which scenario has played out.

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Step 5: Historical Reaction Context

How has this stock moved on the last 3-4 prints?

Period	Beat / Miss / In-line	Revenue	EPS	Guidance	Stock Day-1 Move
[Q/H/FY Year]

Note any pattern: does this stock reward beats, or is it guidance-dependent? Source via web search.

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Step 6: Thesis Pillar Checklist (only if thesis file exists)

Pillar	What the Print Will Show	Confirmation Signal	Concern Signal
[Pillar name]	[Specific metric or disclosure]	[What confirms it's intact]	[What challenges it]

Work through this table live when the result drops: note ✅/⚠️/❌ next to each pillar. Then hand these notes to earnings-analysis for the post-print verdict.

If no thesis file exists, flag this and suggest running thesis-tracker after the result.

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Step 7: Output

Quick mode: Consensus table + three key metrics. Inline only, no file.

Full mode:

1. Deliver inline: lead with earnings date and key metrics (most time-sensitive), then scenarios, then pillar checklist.
2. Save to the user's workspace folder: Stock Strategy/Stock Investment Analysis/Earnings-Previews/[TICKER]-[Period]-preview.md (or equivalent)
3. Confirm file saved and path.
4. Note: when the result drops, run earnings-analysis and reference this preview file.

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Important Notes

• For ASX companies: results land on the ASX platform at market open (10am AEST) or after close (4pm AEST). The ASX announcements page is the primary source.
• For small/mid-cap ASX stocks with 1-3 analysts, a "beat" or "miss" vs. thin consensus is less meaningful than for large-caps. Note this explicitly.
• Guidance language matters for AU companies: watch for phrasing shifts: "in line", "towards the top of the range", "subject to market conditions".
• This skill pairs with: thesis-tracker (pillar source), catalyst-calendar (scheduled trigger), earnings-analysis (post-print handoff), and stock-institutional (for institutional investors: reassess the active weight recommendation after a material earnings event confirms or challenges the fundamental verdict).

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Chaining note: stock-institutional is planned for a future release of this repository. The earnings workflow in this repo is complete without it.