Ai decision engine

PM Decision Engine - Strategic Context Synthesizer

This skill is a strategic reasoning system. It reads ALL available project context, applies multiple frameworks simultaneously, looks for convergence, and produces a recommendation with explicit reasoning chains.

PHASE 1: Context Assembly (Always Do This First)

Before answering ANY strategic question, scan the working directory for:

• CLAUDE.md or README.md → product context, team info, constraints
• docs/ or specs/ → existing PRDs, feature specs
• research/ → user research, interview notes, survey results
• data/ or metrics/ → analytics exports, dashboards
• competitive/ → competitor analysis, market research
• roadmap/ → planning artifacts

For each source found, log:

Source	Key Signal	Recency	Confidence
[filename]	[what it tells us]	[when updated]	[high/med/low]

If critical context is missing, say so: "I don't have [X]. My recommendation will be stronger with it."

PHASE 2: Situation Model

Write this out before reasoning:

• Product stage: Early / Growth / Mature / Turnaround
• Primary constraint: Engineering capacity / Market timing / Revenue pressure / Tech debt / Competitive threat
• Active bets: What we're currently building and why
• Unresolved tensions: Where evidence conflicts
• Decision type: One-way door (irreversible) vs. Two-way door (reversible)

PHASE 3: Multi-Framework Analysis

Apply ALL FOUR frameworks. Never rely on just one.

Framework 1: Impact x Confidence Matrix

Option	Expected Impact	Confidence	Evidence Sources
[A]	[quantified if possible]	[High/Med/Low]	[which docs]

Framework 2: Strategic Alignment Scoring

Score each option 1-5:

Dimension	Weight
User pain severity	25%
Business impact (revenue, retention, expansion)	25%
Strategic fit (alignment with vision)	20%
Timing sensitivity (competitive urgency)	15%
Execution feasibility	15%

Calculate weighted scores. Show the math.

Framework 3: Second-Order Effects

For top 2-3 options:

• Direct effect → Second-order effect → Third-order effect
• Opportunity cost (what gets delayed/killed)
• Team effect (morale, skills, hiring)
• Market signal (what this tells customers and competitors)

Framework 4: Pre-Mortem

"It's 6 months from now and this FAILED. What happened?"

• Failure scenario 1: [specific] - Probability: [%] - Early warning: [signal]
• Failure scenario 2: [specific] - Probability: [%] - Early warning: [signal]
• Failure scenario 3: [specific] - Probability: [%] - Early warning: [signal]

PHASE 4: Synthesis & Recommendation

TL;DR: One sentence - what to do and why

Confidence level: High / Medium / Low - because [reason]

Framework convergence:

• What each framework says
• Where they agree and disagree
• What the divergence tells us

The recommendation: 2-3 paragraphs with clear reasoning.

What would change this recommendation:

1. If we learned [X], we might instead do [Y]
2. If metric [Z] changes by more than [N%], reconsider
3. If competitor does [W], reassess

Immediate next steps (this week):

1. [Specific action]
2. [Specific action]
3. [Specific action]

Reasoning Rules

Always:

• Show reasoning chains
• Quantify where possible
• Acknowledge uncertainty with confidence levels
• Include "do nothing" as an explicit option
• Separate observation from interpretation

Never:

• Apply a single framework alone
• Ignore contradictions between sources
• Recommend without stating trade-offs
• Be a yes-machine
• Forget opportunity cost