Analyze us30

Skill mahmoud20138/Tradecraft/plugins/tradecraft/skills/analyze-us30

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npx -y skills add mahmoud20138/Tradecraft --skill analyze-us30

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Pre-configured combination command for US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average CFD) analysis. Runs the full pair-analyze pipeline tuned for US30's session-driven flow, earnings sensitivity, and Fed-rate reactivity. USE FOR - analyze US30, analyze Dow, analyze Dow Jones, US30 setup, trade US30, DJ30 plan.

SKILL.md

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Analyze US30 — Combination Command

Pre-configured wrapper around pair-analyze for US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average CFD) with index-specific calibration. Pick this when the user says "analyze US30" or "Dow setup" so defaults match how the index actually trades.

Invocation

/tradecraft:analyze-us30 [TIMEFRAME] [MODE]

# Examples
/tradecraft:analyze-us30              # defaults: H1, standard
/tradecraft:analyze-us30 H4 conservative
/tradecraft:analyze-us30 M15 scalp
/tradecraft:analyze-us30 D1 swing

Arguments are exposed via $ARGUMENTS. Symbol is locked to US30.

What This Wrapper Does

Binds symbol = US30 (also accepts broker variants: US30.cash, DJ30, YM, DOW — normalize before dispatch).
Applies US30-specific overrides (see below).
Delegates to the pair-analyze pipeline.
Returns the same JSON output contract as pair-analyze, plus a us30_context block.

US30-Specific Calibration

Aspect	Override vs. generic `pair-analyze`
Pip / point	1.0 USD per unit — price quoted to 1 decimal
Typical spread	1.0 – 3.0 during cash session; 4.0 – 10.0 overnight
Active sessions	US pre-market and cash session (12:00 – 21:00 UTC)
Dead zone	Asian session — wide spreads, low volume, gap risk
Volatility reference	H1 ATR(14) typically 60–160 pts; >250 = elevated
SL minimum	Max(structure-based, 0.8 × H1 ATR, 40 pts)
High-impact drivers	FOMC, CPI, NFP, ISM, mega-cap earnings (AAPL/MSFT/GS/UNH), yields
News gate buffer	15 min before / 45 min after red-folder USD events
Correlation to monitor	SPX (high positive), VIX (inverse), USTs (context), DXY (weak inverse)
Gap behavior	Weekend and overnight gaps are common — open positions past cash close at risk

Mode Defaults Adjusted for US30

Mode	Per-trade risk	Min R:R	Notes
conservative	0.5%	3.0	H4/D1 only; avoid FOMC week and earnings peaks
standard	1.0%	2.0	H1/H4; cash session only
aggressive	1.5%	1.5	H1/M15; first 90 min of US open, or post-FOMC trend
scalp	0.5%	1.5	M5/M15; cash session only — never overnight
swing	1.0%	3.0	H4/D1; align with SPX and breadth trend

Worked Example: US30 H4 conservative

Assume current price = 42180, D1 uptrend, H4 consolidation, FOMC minutes in ~18h.

Regime — D1 trend-up, H4 range-in-trend (42060 – 42230).
News gate — clear for an H4 setup; flag FOMC minutes for position management.
Structure — H4 CHoCH rejected at range top; bearish order block 42150 – 42220.
Liquidity — equal highs at 42200 untouched → likely sweep target, not entry.
Entry refinement — short 42180 after liquidity sweep of 42200 with M15 rejection.
Risk — SL 42250 (70 pts, above ATR and equal-highs sweep); $10k × 0.5% = $50. Using the common US30 CFD spec of $1 per index-point per 1.0 lot: lots = $50 / (70 × $1) = 0.71. If your broker uses a $10-per-point spec, the same risk gives 0.07 lots — verify from your broker's symbol info before sizing.
Plan — short 42180, SL 42250, TP1 41960 (3.1R, range bottom + buffer), grade A, confidence 0.74.

{
  "symbol": "US30",
  "timeframe": "H4",
  "mode": "conservative",
  "regime": "trend-up-h4-range",
  "bias": "short",
  "setup_grade": "A",
  "confluence": ["H4 CHoCH", "bearish order block", "equal-highs sweep", "SPX neutral"],
  "entry": 42180.0,
  "stop_loss": 42250.0,
  "take_profit_1": 41960.0,
  "risk_reward": 3.1,
  "position_size": {"lots": 0.71, "risk_pct": 0.5, "usd_per_point_per_lot": 1.0},
  "invalidation": "H4 close above 42250",
  "news_gate": {"clear_until": "19:00 UTC next day", "next_event": "FOMC Minutes"},
  "us30_context": {
    "atr_h4": 180.0,
    "spx_bias": "neutral",
    "vix": 14.8,
    "session": "NY afternoon",
    "spread": 1.5
  },
  "confidence": 0.74,
  "notes": "Short on sweep-and-reject of equal highs; manage into FOMC minutes next day"
}

Skip Conditions (US30-specific)

Do NOT emit a trade plan when:

Outside US cash session and mode is not swing (overnight spreads + gap risk)
Within 15 min before or 45 min after CPI, NFP, FOMC, ISM, or a Dow-30 mega-cap earnings print
VIX > 28 AND mode is not swing (regime = panic, intraday mean reversion is unreliable)
SPX breaking major level in the opposite direction (breadth divergence)
Spread > 5.0 at entry time

Validation Checklist

Symbol normalized to US30
SL ≥ max(structure, 0.8×ATR, 40 pts)
News gate checked for USD red-folder events AND DJIA earnings
SPX correlation not opposing the signal
Current session is US cash (or swing mode with explicit overnight plan)

Position Management Notes

US30 gaps weekends and frequently gaps overnight on earnings. If a trade must be held past cash close:

Reduce size by 50%
Move SL to breakeven only if structure supports it (do not tighten mechanically)
Log the gap risk in the trade journal (see trading-fundamentals journaling section)