Thesis tracker

Skill luiseiman/dotforge/stacks/trading/skills/thesis-tracker

Track and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist. Maintains scorecard of pillars, catalysts, and conviction level. Triggers on "update thesis", "thesis check", "is my thesis intact", "add data point", "review positions".From its SKILL.md

Install

npx -y skills add luiseiman/dotforge --skill thesis-tracker

Assembled from the repository path, not quoted from the project. Check it against their README if it does not work.

One thing to look at

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SKILL.md

3.1 KB, 748 tokens by cl100k_base, as published. Nobody here has run it

Thesis Tracker

Maintain investment theses with structured tracking of pillars, evidence, and catalysts.

Step 1: Load or Create Thesis

New thesis — collect:

Ticker + market (BYMA/US/crypto)
Direction: Long or Short
Core thesis: 1-2 sentences (e.g., "Long GGAL — margin expansion from rate normalization + deposit growth as inflation drops")
3-5 key pillars (supporting arguments)
3-5 key risks (what invalidates the thesis)
Catalysts with dates (earnings, regulatory, macro events)
Target price + time horizon
Stop-loss trigger (price or fundamental)
Position size (% of portfolio)

Existing thesis: load from project files or ask user for current state.

Step 2: Pillar Scorecard

Maintain running scorecard:

Pillar	Original Expectation	Current Status	Evidence	Trend
Revenue growth >15%	On track	Q3 was 18% YoY	10-Q filed 11/8	Stable
Margin expansion	Behind	EBITDA margin flat	Earnings call	Concerning
Catalyst pending	Watching	Reg decision delayed	Press release	Watch

Trend values: Confirming / Stable / Concerning / Broken

Step 3: Update Log

For each new data point:

Date: when it happened
Event: what changed (earnings, macro, competitor, regulatory)
Impact: which pillar affected, how (strengthens/weakens/neutral)
Action: hold / add / trim / exit
Conviction: High / Medium / Low (updated)

Step 4: Catalyst Calendar

Date	Event	Ticker	Expected Impact	Status
				Pending/Done/Missed

Step 5: AR-Specific Tracking (if applicable)

For CEDEARs:

Track underlying ADR price + CEDEAR price + CCL implicit
Calculate premium/discount vs theoretical parity
Flag when premium >5% or discount >3%

For bonds (soberanos/corporativos):

Track TIR, duration, paridad
Spread vs benchmark (US Treasury or similar)
Next coupon date and amortization schedule

For CCL/MEP:

Track spread (CCL - MEP) / MEP
Settlement dates (T+1 vs T+2)
Parking requirement compliance

Step 6: Thesis Health Summary

Output format:

═══ THESIS: [TICKER] — [LONG/SHORT] ═══
Core: [thesis statement]
Conviction: [High/Medium/Low] (was: [previous])
Pillars: [N/M on track]  Risks: [N/M active]
Next catalyst: [event] on [date]
Last updated: [date]

⚠️ ALERTS:
- [pillar X] showing weakness: [evidence]
- [catalyst Y] missed deadline

Important Notes

Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming
If >50% of pillars are Concerning or Broken → force re-evaluation
Quarterly review mandatory even if nothing dramatic happened
For portfolio-wide review: show all theses sorted by conviction, flag any with deteriorating trend
A thesis without a falsification condition is not a thesis — reject it

What ships with it

Read from the repository

Just SKILL.md. No reference files, no scripts.