Earnings watch

Skill luiseiman/dotforge/stacks/trading/skills/earnings-watch

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npx -y skills add luiseiman/dotforge --skill earnings-watch

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Quick post-earnings analysis for portfolio holdings. Beat/miss, key metrics, thesis impact, estimate revision. Triggers on "earnings update", "quarterly results", "Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 results", "post-earnings".

SKILL.md

2.6 KB, as published. Nobody here has run it

Earnings Watch

Fast-turnaround post-earnings analysis focused on thesis impact. NOT a full initiation report — assumes you already know the company.

Step 1: Data Collection

CRITICAL: Training data is outdated. ALWAYS search for current data.

Write down today's date
Web search: "[Company] latest earnings results [current year]"
Verify earnings release date is within last 3 months
Collect: earnings release, 10-Q/10-K, call transcript, guidance

For CEDEARs: fetch the underlying US company's earnings, then calculate impact on CEDEAR price considering CCL.

Step 2: Beat/Miss Analysis

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Delta	Beat/Miss
Revenue			$ / %
EPS			$ / %
[Key metric 1]
[Key metric 2]

Lead with the headline: "AAPL Q3: Revenue beat by $2.1B (+3%), EPS beat by $0.12 (+8%)"

Step 3: Key Takeaways

3-5 bullet points, prioritized by thesis relevance:

What was NEW (not rehashing known info)
What management said about forward guidance
Any change in capital allocation (buybacks, dividends, capex)
Segment/geography surprises

Step 4: Thesis Impact

Map results to thesis pillars:

Pillar	Pre-Earnings Status	Post-Earnings Impact	Updated Status
		Strengthened/Weakened/Unchanged

Verdict: Thesis intact / Thesis weakened / Thesis broken

Step 5: Estimate Revision

Metric	Old Estimate	New Estimate	Change	Reason
FY Revenue
FY EPS
Target Price

Step 6: Action

Rating change: Maintain / Upgrade / Downgrade
Position action: Hold / Add on dip / Trim / Exit
Conviction: High / Medium / Low
Next catalyst: [event + date]

Output Format

Concise markdown. 500-1000 words max. Tables for data, prose for analysis.

═══ EARNINGS WATCH: [TICKER] Q[N] [YEAR] ═══
Headline: [beat/miss summary]
Thesis impact: [intact/weakened/broken]
Action: [hold/add/trim/exit]
Next catalyst: [event on date]

Notes

Speed over depth — publish within 24h of earnings
If earnings are from a CEDEAR underlying, include CCL-adjusted impact
Always cite source and date for every number
If guidance was lowered, that's more important than the backward-looking beat