Assumption mapping

Assumption Mapping

Generate and categorize assumptions underlying a product strategy.

When to Use

Early in product development to surface and document what you're betting on.

The Framework

Organize assumptions into four categories:

Category	Focus	Example Questions
Desirability	Will users want this?	Problem severity, willingness to pay, switching triggers
Feasibility	Can we build it?	Technical risks, data needs, integrations, security
Viability	Will it make money?	Pricing, margins, retention, unit economics
Usability	Can users use it?	Task success, learnability, error tolerance

The Process

1. Gather Inputs

Document:

• Product description
• Core problem being solved
• Target user

2. Generate Assumptions

For each category, create at least 5 assumptions:

Format:

• Statement: "We believe that [specific, falsifiable claim]"
• Impact if wrong: [concrete consequence]

Good example:

• Statement: "We believe that SMB admins will pay $20/user/month if onboarding drops below 30 minutes"
• Impact if wrong: Premium pricing underperforms due to insufficient WTP

3. Quality Check

Each assumption should be:

• Specific (include numbers, segments, timeframes)
• Testable (you could run an experiment)
• One idea per assumption (no compound claims)

Output

Four lists of 5+ assumptions each:

• Desirability assumptions
• Feasibility assumptions
• Viability assumptions
• Usability assumptions

Each with statement and impact if wrong.

When Not to Use

Do not use this skill when the request is unrelated, low-stakes, or better handled by a simpler direct response.