Decision toolkit

Decision Toolkit

Structured frameworks for making better decisions. Choose the right tool for the decision type.

Framework 1 — RICE Prioritization

Use for: Feature prioritization, project backlog, competing initiatives.

Score each option:

RICE Score = (Reach × Impact × Confidence) / Effort

Reach:     How many people/units affected? (number per time period)
Impact:    Massive=3 / High=2 / Medium=1 / Low=0.5 / Minimal=0.25
Confidence: How sure are you? 100% / 80% / 50%
Effort:    Person-months to complete

Present as a ranked table. Note: RICE is a forcing function, not a truth machine — the assumptions matter more than the scores.

---

Framework 2 — Decision Matrix

Use for: Choosing between multiple options across multiple criteria.

Steps:

1. List options (rows)
2. List criteria (columns) — max 6
3. Assign weight to each criterion (total = 100%)
4. Score each option on each criterion (1-5)
5. Calculate weighted score
6. Identify winner — then sanity-check: does the winner feel right? If not, the weights are wrong.

Always state the most contested assumption in the weighting.

---

Framework 3 — Pre-Mortem

Use for: High-stakes decisions before commitment. Forces failure-mode thinking.

Instructions: "Imagine it's 12 months from now. This decision was made. It failed spectacularly. What happened?"

Generate 5-7 realistic failure scenarios. For each:

• Name the failure mode
• Probability estimate (rough)
• Early warning signal (what would you see in month 1-3?)
• Mitigation: what decision change would reduce this risk?

Then: does the decision still make sense given these failure modes?

---

Framework 4 — Second-Order Thinking

Use for: Decisions with complex ripple effects. Strategy, policy, architecture.

Structure:

FIRST-ORDER EFFECTS (immediate, obvious):
[What happens directly as a result of this decision]

SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS (3-12 months):
[What happens because of the first-order effects]

THIRD-ORDER EFFECTS (1-3 years):
[What happens because of the second-order effects]

MOST DANGEROUS ASSUMPTION:
[The one thing that, if wrong, reverses the recommendation]

---

Framework 5 — Build vs Buy vs Partner

Use for: Technology or capability acquisition decisions.

Evaluate across:

Dimension	Build	Buy	Partner
Time to value	Slowest	Fastest	Medium
Control	Maximum	Minimum	Shared
Cost structure	Capex upfront	Opex ongoing	Variable
Strategic differentiation	High	Low	Medium
Maintenance burden	Full	Vendor's	Shared

Decision rules:

• If it's core to your differentiation → Build
• If it's commodity infrastructure → Buy
• If you need speed + don't need control → Buy
• If you need capability you can't build in 6 months → Partner or Buy

---

Framework 6 — Reversibility Test

Use for: Any decision. The most underused filter.

Ask:

1. Is this decision reversible? (Can you undo it in <3 months at <20% cost?)
2. If YES → move fast, decide with 70% information, learn by doing
3. If NO → slow down, gather more information, apply pre-mortem

"If in doubt, make it reversible first."

---

Synthesis Protocol

After applying any framework:

1. Recommendation: State the decision clearly. No "it depends" without conditions.
2. Confidence: X% — what would raise or lower it?
3. Key assumption: The one thing that most determines the outcome.
4. Decision trigger: What specific signal in the next 30 days confirms or challenges this?

Source: adapted from glebis/claude-skills/decision-toolkit + standard decision frameworks