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Jie data analysis

Skill brycewang-stanford/Awesome-Journal-Skills/Journal-of-International-Economics-Skills/skills/jie-data-analysis

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Use when building or auditing the empirical analysis for a Journal of International Economics (JIE) manuscript — constructing bilateral trade panels, estimating PPML gravity, running open-economy panels and local projections, calibrating/estimating structural models, and producing the robustness suite international-economics referees expect. Strengthens the analysis; it does not fabricate results.

SKILL.md

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Data Analysis (jie-data-analysis)

When to trigger

  • Assembling a bilateral trade panel or a cross-country macro/finance panel
  • Choosing the gravity estimator and fixed-effect structure
  • Deciding which robustness checks an international-economics referee will demand
  • Disciplining a structural open-economy or trade model against the data

Empirical norms at JIE

JIE referees come from international trade or international macro/finance and apply that field's conventions. Match them.

Data construction

  • Trade: build bilateral product-level flows from UN Comtrade or the cleaned BACI (CEPII); merge gravity covariates from the CEPII Gravity database (distance, contiguity, common language, RTAs); tariffs/NTMs from WITS/TRAINS or WTO. Keep zeros — they are informative and PPML uses them.
  • International macro/finance: assemble panels from IMF IFS/BOP/DOTS, BIS, the External Wealth of Nations (Lane–Milesi-Ferretti), Penn World Table; sovereign-debt/default histories from established crisis datasets.

Estimation

  • Gravity → PPML (ppmlhdfe, fixest::fepois) with importer×time, exporter×time, and pair fixed effects; report the trade elasticity.
  • Cross-country macro panels → fixed effects with care for dynamic-panel bias (xtabond2/xtdpdgmm where lagged dependent variables matter); cluster appropriately.
  • Dynamics → local projections (lpirf) for pass-through and impulse responses; VAR/BVAR where warranted.
  • Structural → solve and calibrate/estimate (Dynare for DSGE; exact-hat algebra for trade counterfactuals); report targeted and untargeted moments.

Robustness suite (referees will ask)

  • Alternative fixed-effect structures and samples; alternative trade-cost proxies.
  • Sensitivity to the trade elasticity (and, for macro, to risk aversion / discount factor).
  • Modern DID estimators if any staggered policy timing is involved.
  • Design-based inference for shift-share exposure; multi-way clustering for dyadic data.
  • Counterfactual robustness to the elasticities that cannot be pinned down precisely.

Execution bridge (StatsPAI / Stata MCP)

Run the battery, don't just enumerate it. Full map: execution-with-mcp. JIE is international trade/macro; cross-country/firm panels — emphasize identification and clustering.

  • Many outcomes / specifications: romano_wolf (step-down FWER) or benjamini_hochberg.
  • OVB sensitivity: oster_delta / sensemakr.
  • Inference: wild_cluster_bootstrap (few clusters), twoway_cluster / conley.
  • Re-fit off one handle: audit_result(result_id) lists missing checks + the exact suggest_function for each.
  • Exhibits: etable / did_summary_to_latex from the handle — no retyped numbers.

Decisive checks in the body, exhaustive battery in the appendix. JF execution walkthrough.

Checklist

  • Data sources documented and merge keys (ISO country, HS product, year) clean
  • Zeros retained for gravity; PPML used with multilateral-resistance FE
  • Estimator matched to data structure (dyadic, dynamic panel, time series, structural)
  • Inference matched to the design (multi-way / design-based / cluster-robust)
  • Economic magnitudes (elasticities, welfare, pass-through) reported, not just significance
  • Robustness to key elasticities and specifications shown
  • Every number traceable to a script for the replication deposit

Anti-patterns

  • Log-OLS gravity dropping zeros (biased per Santos Silva–Tenreyro)
  • Single-clustered standard errors on dyadic trade data
  • A structural model matched to one moment and declared validated
  • Reporting stars without the trade/welfare/pass-through magnitude
  • Ad hoc analysis with no script trail, breaking the mandatory replication deposit later

Referee-pushback patterns and the JIE-specific fix

The objections an international-economics referee raises most, with the move that resolves each. Each maps to a concrete change in the empirical section.

  • "Gravity estimates without multilateral resistance / still on log-OLS." Fix: re-estimate with PPML (ppmlhdfe/fepois), importer×time and exporter×time fixed effects, pair fixed effects for policy effects; keep zeros; report the elasticity, not just significance.
  • "Trade-policy variable is endogenous — RTAs form where trade is already growing." Fix: pair fixed effects to absorb time-invariant selection, pre-trend event study, phase-in/anticipation modelled, and a falsification on flows the policy should not touch.
  • "Shift-share exposure may proxy a local trend." Fix: state whether identification rests on exogenous shares or shifts, use Adao–Kolesar–Morales or Borusyak–Hull–Jaravel inference, and show exposure is uncorrelated with pre-period trends.
  • "Quantitative model is not disciplined by the data." Fix: tabulate targeted vs untargeted moments, report counterfactuals under a range of trade elasticities, and show the headline result is not an artifact of one un-pinned-down parameter.
  • "Inference ignores dyadic dependence." Fix: multi-way (exporter and importer) clustering, not a single cluster dimension.

Worked micro-example (illustrative numbers)

A gravity panel of bilateral manufacturing trade, 60 countries × 20 years, asking whether an RTA raises members' trade. Log-OLS on positive flows returns an RTA coefficient of, say, 0.55 (about a 73% increase). Re-estimating in PPML with importer×time, exporter×time, and pair fixed effects — retaining the ~30% of dyad-years with zero trade — the coefficient falls to roughly 0.20 (about 22%). That drop is the textbook Santos Silva–Tenreyro pattern: log-OLS over-weighted small positive flows and discarded informative zeros. Multi-way clustering on exporter and importer widens the standard error enough that the honest takeaway is "a modest, precisely-bounded RTA effect," not the inflated log-OLS number. (Figures illustrative, chosen to show the mechanism.)

Output format

【Data】sources + unit (dyad-year / country-year / firm-year)
【Estimator】PPML+FE / dynamic panel / local projection / structural
【Inference】multi-way / design-based / cluster-robust
【Magnitudes】[elasticity / welfare / pass-through reported]
【Robustness done】[FE structures, elasticity sensitivity, modern DID, ...]
【Robustness missing】[...]
【Next step】jie-contribution-framing or jie-tables-figures

Supplementary resources

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