NioPD PM risk analysis

Risk Analysis Skill

This skill conducts systematic risk identification and mitigation planning using probability-impact assessment.

Theoretical Foundation

Risk Assessment Matrix

	Low Impact	Medium Impact	High Impact
High Probability	Medium	High	Critical
Medium Probability	Low	Medium	High
Low Probability	Low	Low	Medium

Risk Categories

Category	Examples
Technical	Performance, integration, security
Schedule	Dependencies, estimation, resources
Resource	Skills, availability, budget
External	Vendors, regulations, market
Business	Strategy changes, stakeholder alignment

Risk Response Strategies

• Avoid: Change plan to eliminate risk
• Mitigate: Reduce probability or impact
• Transfer: Shift to third party (insurance, vendor)
• Accept: Acknowledge and monitor

When to Use

• Project kickoff
• Sprint planning
• Launch preparation
• Quarterly reviews
• Major decisions

Instructions

Step 1: Identify Risks

For each category, brainstorm:

• "What could go wrong?"
• "What are we assuming will go well?"
• "What has caused problems before?"

Step 2: Assess Each Risk

Risk	Probability	Impact	Score	Category
[Risk]	H/M/L	H/M/L	[P×I]	[Type]

Step 3: Prioritize

Focus on:

• High probability × High impact
• Issues with no current mitigation
• Risks outside our control

Step 4: Develop Mitigations

For priority risks:

• Mitigation Strategy: [How to reduce]
• Owner: [Who is responsible]
• Trigger: [When to escalate]
• Contingency: [If risk materializes]

Step 5: Create Monitoring Plan

• What indicators signal risk increase?
• How often to review?
• Who monitors each risk?

Step 6: Generate Report

File path: 02-reports/[YYYYMMDD]-risk-analysis-v0.md

Risk	P	I	Mitigation	Owner	Status
[Risk]	H/M/L	H/M/L	[Action]	[Who]	🟢/🟡/🔴

Output Specifications

• File Naming: [YYYYMMDD]-risk-analysis-v0.md
• Location: 02-reports/
• Template: references/risk-analysis-template.md

Related Skills

• niopd-pm-dependencies: Dependency risks
• niopd-dt-scenarios: Future scenarios
• niopd-pm-release: Release risks
• niopd-pd-experiment: Validation planning