Evaluate scenarios

EXECUTE NOW

Target: $ARGUMENTS

Parse immediately:

• empty → evaluate all scenarios in tests/scenarios/
• a scenario name → evaluate only that scenario
• compare → evaluate all and compare against a previous run if one exists

This harness measures operational overhead: the framework instructions an agent must read on top of the task's own content. The unit is the fork, not the operation — every cp-skill-* runs context: fork, so each fork pays its overhead from a fresh context. See kb/notes/feasibility-is-the-heaviest-forks-net-load.md for the model.

1. Discover scenario files

ls tests/scenarios/*.md

Read each scenario. Each has a ## Forks section with one subsection per fork; each fork has a table of loads: load | kind | source | hops, where kind is overhead, content, or spared.

2. Config (override via $ARGUMENTS, e.g. notesize=3000 candidates=4 budget=50000 agents_per_fork=on)

Knob	Default	Meaning
notesize	2,000 B	average note/body read
candidates	3	content notes opened where a fork prospects bodies
spared_bodies	3	bodies an index or description-listing read lets a fork skip
index_size	3,000 B	one curated index read or scoped description listing
validate_out	500 B	bytes a commonplace-validate run returns into context
budget	50,000 B	usable-window soft ceiling for the feasibility flag (overhead + content + room to reason)
agents_per_fork	off	if on, add AGENTS.md overhead to every fork, not only where the scenario lists it (the "is AGENTS.md re-injected?" assumption)

3. Measure overhead bytes (per fork)

For each overhead row, read the file named in source and measure it:

wc -c < {source-path}

Measure each distinct file once and reuse the number, but add it to every fork that lists it — do not amortize across forks. A commonplace-validate (or other tool) source contributes validate_out bytes and 1 hop, not a file measurement. An index given as a concrete path is measured with wc -c like any file; index_size applies only to a generic unnamed index or scoped listing the scenario does not path. (Complete dir-index.md listings no longer exist in the repo — ADR 025; a legacy scenario that lists one should be re-costed as a scoped rg listing.)

Common overhead sources: AGENTS.md, the target COLLECTION.md, the type-spec (kb/types/*.md), the invoked skill body (kb/instructions/cp-skill-*/SKILL.md), and curated tag indexes.

4. Estimate content and spared bytes (per fork)

• content row: notesize per body, times the count implied by the hop range (use the midpoint). A row marked "the insight"/"already in session" with hops 0 contributes its rough size if stated, else notesize.
• spared row: a negative credit, spared_bodies × notesize minus the index_size that replaced them (the index or listing read is already counted as overhead).

5. Count hops (per fork)

Sum the hops column per fork; a range (2-4) uses its midpoint. Track overhead-hops and content-hops separately so the cost signal can report overhead hops.

6. Compute the two signals (per scenario)

• Net load per fork = overhead bytes + content bytes − spared credit (bytes); net hops = overhead + content hops.
• Feasibility signal = the single heaviest fork by net bytes — report that fork, its net bytes and net hops, and flag it if net bytes exceed budget.
• Cost signal = overhead bytes summed across all forks (gross — the spared credit applies only to feasibility), and overhead hops summed across all forks.

7. Output

## Scenario Overhead Report

Generated: {date}    Config: {knobs used}

### {Scenario} (frequency: {freq})

| Fork | Overhead B / hops | Content B / hops | Spared B | Net B | Net hops |
|------|-------------------|------------------|----------|-------|----------|
| 1 orchestrator | ... | ... | — | ... | ... |
| 2 cp-skill-write | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 3 cp-skill-connect | ... | ... | — | ... | ... |
| **Feasibility (heaviest fork)** | | | | **{B} ({fork})** {⚠ if > budget} | **{hops}** |
| **Cost (Σ overhead, gross)** | **{B} / {hops}** | | | | |

Overhead sources measured: {file: bytes, ...; note any counted in multiple forks}

{repeat per scenario}

### Summary

| Scenario | Freq | Feasibility (heaviest fork B / hops) | Cost (Σ overhead B / hops) |
|----------|------|--------------------------------------|----------------------------|
| ... | ... | ... | ... |

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Worst feasibility across scenarios | {scenario / fork — bytes} |
| Frequency-weighted overhead cost | {Σ (cost × weight); common=1.0, occasional=0.3, rare=0.1} |

### Observations
- which fork drives feasibility, and how close it is to `budget`
- which overhead source dominates the cost sum (re-paid skill bodies? re-read COLLECTION.md?)
- what would cut each signal (merge forks lowers cost but raises feasibility; sparing more content lowers feasibility only)
- any fork flagged over `budget`

8. Verify plausibility

Sanity-check against the live files, not remembered typical sizes — artifact sizes drift as the system evolves, so a hand-maintained range goes stale. Whenever a size drives a verdict or looks surprising, re-run wc -c on the actual artifact (AGENTS.md, the COLLECTION.md, the type spec, the skill body) and use that number.

One structural anchor that scales rather than drifts: a scoped rg description listing costs roughly 150 B per matching note — it grows with the slice, not the collection.

START NOW. Read the scenarios, measure overhead per fork, emit the per-scenario fork tables and the feasibility + cost signals.