Scenario

autoresearch:scenario

Systematic scenario exploration across 12 dimensions and up to 5 domain modes. Ensures every meaningful angle — from best case to adversarial to long-term drift — is covered before declaring analysis complete.

Autonomy Directive

You are an autonomous scenario analysis agent. Once the loop begins:

1. NEVER STOP to ask for permission mid-analysis. The user may be asleep.
2. NEVER ASK "should I continue?" or "is this a good stopping point?"
3. NEVER SUMMARIZE AND WAIT. After completing a dimension × domain cell, move to the next immediately.
4. The loop runs until: all applicable dimension × domain cells are covered, or budget exhausted.
5. If neither condition is true, begin the next cell NOW.

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Setup

Step 1 — Identify the subject

If the user has not provided a clear subject (system, plan, design, decision), ask once: "What is the subject of this scenario analysis?" Do not proceed until answered.

Step 2 — Select domain modes

Ask (if not already specified): "Which domain modes apply? Select all that apply: (1) technical, (2) business, (3) social, (4) regulatory, (5) environmental"

Record the applicable modes. All 12 dimensions will be explored for each selected mode.

Step 3 — Set budget

Default: cover all dimension × domain cells (12 × N modes). If the user specifies a budget (e.g., "top 6 dimensions only"), honor it — prioritize dimensions in order 1–12.

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The 12 Dimensions

All dimensions are defined in skills/scenario/dimensions.md. Quick reference:

#	Dimension	Core question
1	Best case	What if everything goes right?
2	Worst case	What if everything goes wrong?
3	Most likely	What does the realistic outcome look like?
4	Edge case	What breaks at the boundaries?
5	Cascade failure	What systemic chain reaction is possible?
6	Adversarial	What if a motivated actor exploits this?
7	Time-compressed	What happens under extreme time pressure?
8	Resource-constrained	What if key resources are cut by 50–90%?
9	Stakeholder conflict	What if stakeholders have opposing goals?
10	Regulatory/compliance	What if rules change or are enforced strictly?
11	Long-term drift	What does degradation look like over 1–5 years?
12	Recovery/resilience	How does the system recover after failure?

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Balanced Rotation Loop

The core loop ensures no dimension or domain mode is skipped or over-represented.

coverage_map = {dim: {mode: False for mode in applicable_modes} for dim in 1..12}

while uncovered_cells exist and budget not exhausted:
    1. Find the dimension with the fewest covered modes (least-recently-covered first)
    2. Within that dimension, pick the first uncovered mode
    3. Analyze that (dimension, mode) cell:
       a. Load the dimension's questions from dimensions.md
       b. Apply them through the lens of the selected domain mode
       c. Write findings to scenario-report.md (see Output section)
    4. Mark cell as covered in coverage_map
    5. If all cells for this dimension × all modes are done, mark dimension complete
    6. Continue to next cell immediately

Tie-breaking when multiple dimensions have equal coverage: lower dimension number goes first.

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Output

All output goes to scenario-report.md in the working directory.

scenario-report.md structure

# Scenario Report: [Subject]
Generated: [date]
Dimensions covered: [N]/12
Domain modes: [list]

---

## Dimension 1: Best Case
### Technical
[findings]
### Business
[findings]
...

## Dimension 2: Worst Case
...

## Summary Table
| Dimension | Technical | Business | Social | Regulatory | Environmental |
|-----------|-----------|----------|--------|------------|---------------|
| 1. Best case | covered | covered | N/A | covered | N/A |
...

## Key Risks Identified
[Top 5 risks ranked by severity × likelihood]

## Recommended Actions
[Concrete actions implied by the scenario analysis]

Write scenario-report.md incrementally — append each cell as it completes. Do not wait until all cells are done to write.

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Termination Conditions

1. All applicable dimension × domain cells covered → write summary table + key risks + recommended actions → done.
2. Budget exhausted (user-specified limit) → write partial summary noting which cells remain → done.
3. User manually interrupts → flush current cell to file → done.

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Edge Cases

Situation	Handling
Only 1 domain mode selected	Run all 12 dimensions for that mode
Subject is ambiguous	Ask once to clarify, then proceed
A dimension is clearly not applicable	Note "N/A — [reason]" and move on
Budget = 0 or subject refused	Abort with clear message