Critical intuition

Critical Intuition & Sixth Sense

Stress-test existing ideas and detect hidden patterns. Backward-looking, convergent analysis — complements creative-problem-solving (forward-looking, divergent generation).

When to Use / Not Use

Use when:

• Reading between the lines on proposals, communications, or situations
• Identifying what is missing, hidden, or unstated
• Critically evaluating arguments, evidence, or reasoning
• Detecting early warning signs or red flags
• Synthesizing complex information under uncertainty
• "Something feels off" but you cannot articulate why

Do NOT use when:

• Generating new creative solutions -> use creative-problem-solving
• Brainstorming or strategic reframing -> use creative-problem-solving
• Building structured risk registers -> use risk-management
• Making final decisions between options -> use prioritization

Decision Tree

What kind of analysis do you need?
├── "What am I missing?" or "What could go wrong?"
│   └── Gap analysis + red flag detection (§Step 2, §Step 6)
├── "Read between the lines" on a document
│   └── Multi-level reading (§Step 1: surface, subtext, meta)
├── "Is this argument/evidence sound?"
│   └── Critical reasoning (§Step 3: argument structure, fallacies, evidence)
├── "How likely is this?" or "What should I believe?"
│   └── Probabilistic assessment (§Step 4: Bayesian, multiple hypotheses)
├── "Something feels off but I can't say why"
│   └── Intuitive synthesis (§Step 5: gestalt, micro-signals)
├── "What should I watch for going forward?"
│   └── Early warning detection (§Step 6: leading indicators, tipping points)
└── Need to GENERATE new ideas, not evaluate existing ones?
    └── Use creative-problem-solving instead

Seven-Step Analysis Process

Step 1: Multi-Level Reading

Level	What to Examine	Question
Surface	What is explicitly stated	"What are the obvious facts?"
Subtext	What is implied but not stated	"What assumptions are embedded? What's conspicuously absent?"
Meta	Why it's communicated this way	"What are the incentives? What power dynamics are at play?"

For techniques, read references/pattern-recognition.md.

Step 2: Signal Detection

• Pattern recognition: What patterns emerge? Signal vs. noise? Meta-patterns?
• Anomaly detection: What doesn't fit? Discontinuities? Unusually present or absent?
• Micro-signals: Timing variations, emphasis patterns, language hedging, topic avoidance
• Gap analysis: What information is missing that would normally be present?

For subtle signal detection, read references/sixth-sense.md.

Step 3: Critical Reasoning

• Argument structure: Identify premises and conclusions, evaluate logical validity, detect hidden assumptions
• Fallacy detection: Formal fallacies, informal fallacies, statistical fallacies, motivated reasoning
• Evidence evaluation: Source credibility, data quality, sample representativeness, confounding factors

For frameworks, read references/critical-thinking.md.

Step 4: Probabilistic Assessment

• Bayesian thinking: Prior probability → evidence strength → updated probability → residual uncertainty
• Multiple hypotheses: Generate alternatives, assess relative likelihood, identify discriminating evidence
• Confidence calibration: How confident should you be? What would change your mind?

Step 5: Intuitive Synthesis

• Gestalt perception: Combine disparate cues, see the whole picture, emergent understanding
• Cross-domain connections: Analogical reasoning, structural similarities, principle transfer
• Tacit knowledge: Pattern matching without explicit rules — gut feeling as compressed expertise

For synthesis techniques, read references/synthesis-frameworks.md.

Step 6: Early Warning Detection

• Leading indicators: Upstream signals, stress accumulation, resilience degradation, variance increases
• Trajectory sensing: Momentum assessment, inflection point detection, tipping point proximity
• Red flag clusters: Multiple small concerns, coincidence accumulation, pattern breaks

For details, read references/sixth-sense.md.

Step 7: Judgment Formation

• Information integration: Combine quantitative and qualitative, triangulate sources, weight by reliability
• Decision under uncertainty: Expected value, scenario analysis, robust options
• Metacognitive check: How confident am I? What biases might affect me? What am I missing?

Analysis Depth by Stakes

Stakes Level	Steps	Techniques
Low (minor, reversible)	Steps 1-2 + red flag scan	Surface + subtext reading, quick pattern check
Medium (significant, partially reversible)	Full 7-step process	All techniques, probabilistic assessment
High (irreversible, major consequences)	Full process + extended patterns	Multiple hypothesis testing, explicit metacognitive checks, counter-argument generation

Anti-Patterns

Anti-Pattern	Problem	Solution
Over-reading: finding signals that aren't there	Every proposal looks suspicious; alarming conclusions from ambiguous data	Calibrate confidence; distinguish high-confidence findings from speculation; require corroborating evidence
Analysis paralysis: too many hypotheses	10 possible interpretations but no recommendation	Force probabilistic ranking; assign relative likelihoods; identify discriminating evidence that would resolve ambiguity
Confirmation bias in direction	"Gut feeling" biases analysis toward confirming initial suspicion	Explicit metacognitive check: "What would change my mind?" Generate strongest counter-argument
Asking for validation not analysis	"Confirm this is a good plan" biases toward agreement	Ask "What am I missing?" or "What could go wrong?" instead
No artifact to analyze	"What do you think about acquisitions generally?" is theory, not analysis	Share the actual document, proposal, or situation details; subtext reading requires actual text
Paraphrasing instead of sharing originals	Paraphrasing already filters out the signals the skill would detect	Paste the full document; let the skill read between the actual lines
Skipping metacognitive check	Analysis blind to its own biases and gaps	Always complete Step 7: "What biases might affect me? What am I missing?"
Creative-problem-solving overlap	Trying to generate solutions with a critique skill	Generate with creative-problem-solving, then evaluate here; they are complementary opposites

Validation Checklist

Before finalizing judgment:

• Read at multiple levels (surface, subtext, meta)?
• Detected patterns and anomalies?
• Evaluated reasoning and evidence rigorously?
• Checked for cognitive biases?
• Synthesized multiple signals intuitively?
• Calibrated confidence appropriately?
• Acknowledged what you don't know?
• Judgment is actionable and well-grounded?

Integration

• creative-problem-solving — Generative counterpart: create ideas there, evaluate here
• risk-management — Structured risk frameworks that this skill's pattern detection feeds into
• systems-thinking — Deeper feedback loop analysis for what this skill identifies
• prioritization — Ranking the risks and opportunities this skill surfaces
• outcome-orientation — Define measurable criteria for monitoring early warning indicators

References

• references/pattern-recognition.md — Advanced pattern detection, signal vs. noise, anomaly detection
• references/critical-thinking.md — Argument analysis, logical structure, fallacy detection
• references/sixth-sense.md — Micro-signals, subtle energy shifts, early warning systems
• references/synthesis-frameworks.md — Multi-source synthesis, decision under uncertainty
• references/extended-patterns.md — Advanced techniques, red/green flag catalogs, output templates