Equity research report

Equity Research Report

Purpose: Produce a full sell-side-style research report for a single ticker with a clear recommendation, price target, and probability-weighted scenarios.

Trigger: User asks for a comprehensive equity analysis, full research report, trading ideas, or "banker-style" writeup on a ticker.

Data Sources

Follow this order — do not ask the user which source to use:

1. Context first: Check <stock_context> and <acquired_data> for financials, news, sector, peers, and existing thesis. Use what is already loaded.
2. Fetch if missing — call in parallel where possible:
   • INCOME_STATEMENT — revenue, gross profit, EBIT, net income (annual, 5yr)
   • CASH_FLOW — OCF, capex, FCF (annual, 5yr)
   • BALANCE_SHEET — debt, equity, cash
   • EARNINGS — EPS history, surprises, forward estimates
   • OVERVIEW — sector, description, peers, dividend history
   • get_technical_indicators — RSI, MACD, 50/200-day MAs, 52-week range
   • get_news — recent headlines (last 30 days)
   • get_analyst_estimates — consensus price target, range, rating distribution
3. Web search (if tools missing specific data):
   • Search in parallel: recent earnings, options flow, insider filings, analyst upgrades/downgrades, sector rotation data.
4. Ask only if both fail: use request_user_input asking for the specific missing values.

Process

1. Research — Execute in Parallel

• Financial performance: revenue growth, margins, key KPIs with exact numbers and YoY/QoQ timeframes.
• Market positioning: peer valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/B), competitive analysis.
• Advanced intelligence: technical levels, options flow (put/call ratios, unusual activity, IV trends), insider filings (Form 4, dollar amounts, executive names), institutional ownership changes.

2. Build the Report — Sections in Order

Executive Summary

• Clear BUY / SELL / HOLD with conviction level (High/Medium/Low).
• 12-month price target with % upside/downside from current price.
• 1–2 sentence investment thesis: primary catalyst + risk-reward characterisation.

Fundamental Analysis

• Recent financial metrics: revenue growth %, margins (gross/operating/net), FCF yield — all with specific numbers and timeframes.
• Peer comparison: P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S vs sector median with named competitors.
• Forward outlook: management guidance, analyst consensus EPS/revenue estimates.

Catalyst Analysis

• Near-term (0–6 months): earnings dates, product launches, regulatory decisions — include specific dates where known.
• Medium-term (6–24 months): strategic initiatives, market expansion, competitive shifts.
• Event-driven: M&A potential, index inclusion/exclusion, spin-offs, capital returns.

Valuation & Price Targets

• Analyst consensus: $X (range $low–$high).
• Bull case $X — state the specific assumption (e.g. margin expansion, market share gain).
• Base case $X — consensus assumptions, stable execution.
• Bear case $X — risk scenario (e.g. competition, margin compression).
• Probability weighting: Bull X% / Base Y% / Bear Z% summing to 100%.

Risk Assessment

• Company risks: competitive threats, regulatory exposure, execution risk, leverage.
• Macro risks: rate sensitivity, economic cycle, sector rotation impact.
• Position sizing: X%–Y% allocation based on beta / volatility / conviction.
• ESG: flag only if material to institutional ownership.

Technical Context & Options Intelligence

• Current price vs 52-week range; distance from 50-day and 200-day MA.
• Key support and resistance levels (specific prices).
• Volume patterns: accumulation or distribution signal.
• Options flow: put/call ratio, unusual block activity, IV level vs historical, term structure skew.
• Momentum: RSI (overbought/oversold), MACD signal.

Market Positioning

• Stock performance vs sector ETF and S&P 500 over 1M / 3M / YTD (specific %).
• Sector rotation trends affecting the position.
• Relative strength vs closest peers.

Insider Signals

• Recent insider buy/sell transactions: name, role, dollar amount, date.
• Share buyback programme status and remaining authorisation.
• Institutional ownership trend: latest 13F changes (add/reduce/new/exit).
• Pattern interpretation: what the insider behaviour signals about management conviction.

3. Recommendation Summary Table

Metric	Value
Rating	BUY / SELL / HOLD
Conviction	High / Medium / Low
Price Target	$X
Timeframe	12 months
Upside/Downside	X%
Suggested Position	X%–Y%

Output Standards

• Use institutional terminology: EBITDA, EV/Sales, FCF yield, WACC, beta.
• All financial metrics must include specific numbers; no vague qualitative statements without data.
• Price targets must show the upside/downside calculation.
• Cite analyst firms by name when referencing price target updates.
• Include both bullish and bearish scenarios — no one-sided reports.
• Keep each section tight and scannable: short paragraphs or bullet lists.
• End every report with: "This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice. All investments carry risk of loss."

Output Format

The entire research report must be formatted as a thesis-ready markdown document. Write all sections listed under "Build the Report" above in order. The complete report goes into the thesis field of the JSON output.

Thesis Field Rule: Always populate the thesis field in the JSON output with the complete equity research report following the structure above. Include:

• Executive Summary with BUY/SELL/HOLD and price target
• Fundamental Analysis with specific financial metrics
• Catalyst Analysis with dated events
• Valuation & Price Targets (bull/base/bear)
• Risk Assessment
• Technical Context & Options Intelligence
• Market Positioning
• Insider Signals
• Recommendation Summary Table

This is an advanced skill — thesis upserting is mandatory. Never return empty thesis field. ⚠️ Extended thinking is discarded — copy the complete report into the thesis field; it is the ONLY output that reaches the Thesis panel.

Escalate / Hand-off

• If thesis meets high-conviction long criteria → escalate to deep-fundamental-underwriting for full intrinsic value model.
• If significant downside risk identified → escalate to capital-preservation-protocol.
• If insider/senator signal is anomalous → surface to user before final recommendation.