Crisis capital allocation

Crisis Capital Allocation

Purpose: Exploit dislocations while preserving survival.

Trigger: Market-wide stress event.

Inputs:

• Liquidity position
• Portfolio drawdown
• Volatility spike

Data Sources

Follow this order — do not ask the user which source to use:

1. Context first: Check <stock_context> and <acquired_data> for current drawdown magnitude, cash reserves, and volatility readings. If liquidity position and drawdown data are present → proceed directly to Process.
2. Fetch if missing: Call:
   • calculate_liquidity_profile — available cash and liquid asset buffer
   • GLOBAL_QUOTE (top 5 holdings) — current price and daily % move
   • TOP_GAINERS_LOSERS — market-wide stress signal (broad dislocation check)
3. Ask only if both fail: Call request_user_input asking for the specific missing field only (e.g. "Please provide your current cash balance and portfolio peak-to-trough drawdown").

Process:

1. Freeze non-essential activity.
2. Re-evaluate top 5 positions.
3. Rank opportunities by asymmetry.
4. Deploy capital selectively.

Output:

• Capital deployment plan
• Liquidity survival assessment

Output Format

Write a crisis capital allocation plan in markdown format:

## Crisis Capital Allocation Plan
**Analysis Date**: {Date}  
**Crisis Type**: [Market crash / Liquidity freeze / Sector collapse / Recession / Credit event]

### Market Conditions
- **S&P 500**: $X (-Y% from peak)
- **VIX**: X (panic level: [Low/Medium/High])
- **Credit Spreads**: X bps (vs normal Z bps)
- **Liquidity**: [Normal / Impaired / Frozen]

### Available Dry Powder
- **Cash Reserve**: $X (Y% of portfolio)
- **Liquidatable Positions**: [Tickers that can be sold without excessive loss]
- **Total Deployable Capital**: $X

### Opportunity Assessment

#### High-Conviction Ideas Now Trading Below Intrinsic Value
| Ticker | Intrinsic Value | Current Price | Discount | Upside |
|--------|-----------------|---------------|----------|--------|
| XXX | $X | $X | -Y% | +Z% |
| XXX | $X | $X | -Y% | +Z% |

#### Crisis-Specific Opportunities
[Dislocations unique to this event — forced selling, index rebalancing, margin calls, sector rotation]

### Deployment Plan

**Phase 1 (Immediate)**: Deploy X% of dry powder  
- {TICKER}: $X at $Y (Z shares)
- {TICKER}: $X at $Y (Z shares)

**Phase 2 (If market drops another -X%)**: Deploy X% of remaining dry powder  
- Lower entry prices, larger positions

**Phase 3 (Full capitulation)**: Deploy final X%  
- Maximum aggression at maximum pessimism

### Risk/Reward Analysis
- **Expected Return (probability-weighted)**: +X%  
- **Downside Risk**: -Y% (if market falls another -Z%)
- **Upside/Downside Ratio**: X:1

### Liquidity Survival Assessment
- **Minimum Cash Reserve Required**: $X (to survive X months without forced selling)
- **Current vs Required**: [Sufficient / Borderline / Insufficient]
- **Survival Horizon**: X months at current burn rate

### Behavioral Discipline Checklist
☐ Deploying into genuine undervaluation (not catching falling knife)  
☐ Sufficient liquidity to survive further drawdown  
☐ Position sizing accounts for volatility spike  
☐ No forced selling pressure on existing positions  
☐ Clear thesis — not just buying because "it's cheap"

### Action Summary
[One paragraph: deploy $X into {tickers}, staged over {timeframe}, targeting X% return with discipline to add more if market provides better entry.]

Thesis Field Rule: Always populate the thesis field in the JSON output with the complete crisis capital allocation plan. This is an advanced skill — thesis upserting is mandatory. ⚠️ Extended thinking is discarded — copy the complete analysis into the thesis field; it is the ONLY output that reaches the Thesis panel.