Campfire era

Campfire Era

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For Users: How to Use This Skill

What it does

Campfire Era asks a single uncomfortable question about every holding in your portfolio: is this built for the world we're entering, or the world we just left?

The 40-year bond bull market ended. The era of falling rates, expanding PE multiples, and zero cost of capital is over. We are entering a structural inflationary regime — where hard assets, pricing power monopolies, dollar earners, and real infrastructure outperform, while long-duration paper, high-PE story stocks, and import-dependent businesses underperform.

Campfire Era scores every holding on five dimensions and produces two numbers per holding:

• IER (Inflation Era Rating) — how well this holding is structurally positioned for the new macro regime, on a 0–10 scale. A gold miner scores near 10. A long-duration bond fund scores near 0.
• ARJUN (Adaptive Real-time Judgement for Indian Underlyings and Nifty) — a second, separate score measuring how each holding performs right now, in the current Hormuz crisis environment: oil at $100+, rupee weak, FIIs selling. IER tells you if a holding is built for the decade. ARJUN tells you if it's built for this year.

Together they produce a single combined label per holding — from 🎯 CONVICTION HOLD (strong on both) to 🔴 EXIT BOTH ERAS (weak on both) — and a portfolio-level recommendation: The One Trade.

How to start

Type /campfire-era in the chat. That's it.

If you have Zerodha connected, your live holdings are pulled automatically. If not, paste your portfolio as a list — tickers, amounts, or just the top holdings. Equal weighting is assumed if you don't provide weights.

What you get

The Campfire Era Report — a single HTML file with 10 sections:

1. Scores Dashboard — Equity book, MF book, and combined IER with rating band
2. Dimension Breakdown — Hard Asset, Earnings Quality, Pricing Power, Currency Protection, New Economy Infrastructure scores with gap flags
3. Holding-by-Holding Scores — Every position scored and labelled: 🎯 CONVICTION HOLD through 🔴 EXIT BOTH ERAS
4. Inflation Era Champions — Top 3 holdings with sizing verdict
5. Era Mismatches — Bottom 3 holdings with exit/reduce actions
6. Gap Analysis — For each dimension below 6.5, specific additions with sizing
7. MF Book Deep Dive — Fund-by-fund IER with flags (locked, SEBI cap, mismatch, champion)
8. Dual Scenario — Holdings that shift 0.5+ points on a ceasefire; kill switch list
9. The Era Narrative — 5–7 sentences on what this portfolio does well, where it's exposed, and the single most important investor decision
10. The One Trade — The single highest-impact swap, with exact IER improvement quantified

Parameters you can set

Campfire Era asks four things before scoring. You can answer them upfront or let it use defaults:

Parameter	Options	Default
Portfolio Type	EQUITY / MF / COMBINED	COMBINED
Scenario	WAR / CEASEFIRE / DUAL	WAR (May 2026)
Time Horizon	SHORT (1–2yr) / MEDIUM (3–5yr) / LONG (7–10yr)	MEDIUM
ARJUN war-context layer	ON / OFF	ON for Indian portfolios

Zerodha live data

Campfire Era connects to Zerodha Kite MCP for live holdings. One-time setup:

1. Open claude.ai → click your profile → Customize
2. Go to Connections or MCP Servers
3. Add: https://mcp.kite.trade/mcp
4. Authenticate with your Zerodha credentials
5. Run /campfire-era — live data activates automatically

If you don't use Zerodha

Paste your holdings directly. Any format works — a screenshot description, "COALINDIA 20%, HDFCBANK 15%...", or a CSV paste. Campfire Era will work with whatever you provide.

What it doesn't do

It doesn't execute trades, place orders, or modify your account. All scores are research tools — not SEBI-registered investment advice.

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For Skill Authors: Framework Reference

Overview

Campfire Era is a macro regime portfolio scoring skill. It scores any equity or mutual fund portfolio on structural alignment with the new inflationary era (post-2020 bond bull market end), overlays a war-context ARJUN layer for Indian portfolios, and produces a 10-section report with the single most impactful trade recommendation.

Core principle: Every holding earns its place or doesn't. The IER score is unsentimental — a gold ETF outscores a long-duration bond fund regardless of what the user paid for either.

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Step 0: Establish Four Parameters

Before scoring, determine:

A. Portfolio Type

• EQUITY: Individual stocks — use Step 2A
• MF: Mutual funds — use Step 2B
• COMBINED: Both — score each separately, combine at end

B. Scenario Mode

• WAR MODE (default May 2026): Hormuz closed, oil $100+, rupee ₹95+
• CEASEFIRE MODE: Hormuz reopening, oil dropping toward $85, rupee recovering
• DUAL: Show WAR and CEASEFIRE scores side by side

C. Time Horizon

• SHORT (1-2 years): Emphasise near-term earnings, war-context, kill switches
• MEDIUM (3-5 years): Balance war recovery with structural inflation era — DEFAULT
• LONG (7-10 years): Pure inflation era alignment; war noise irrelevant

D. ARJUN Integration

• ON (default for Indian portfolios): Combine ARJUN war scores with IER
• OFF: IER only

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Step 1: Get the Portfolio

Kite MCP connected: Run kite:get_holdings and kite:get_positions. Extract symbol, current_value, weight%.

Manual: Accept list with optional weights. Equal-weight if not provided.

Separate equity from MF holdings. Score each book independently.

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Step 2A: Score Each EQUITY Holding

Use references/scoring-tables.md for pre-scored stocks. Apply rubric below for anything not listed.

Five Dimensions

HAS — Hard Asset Score (0-10)

Score	Description
9-10	Direct hard asset: gold, silver, crude, copper, coal in ground
7-8	Hard asset transport, storage, physical infrastructure
6-7	Lends against hard assets or owns physical networks
4-5	Real estate, manufacturing with significant asset base
2-3	Service businesses, light asset model
0-1	Pure financial, paper asset, long-duration instrument

EQS — Earnings Quality Score (0-10)

Score	Description
9-10	Sub-10x PE, high dividend yield, proven cash flows
7-8	10-20x PE, growing real earnings
5-6	20-35x PE, visible growth path
3-4	35-80x PE, story multiple
0-2	>80x PE, pre-revenue, or loss-making

PPS — Pricing Power Score (0-10)

Score	Description
9-10	Monopoly/duopoly, essential service, zero substitutes
7-8	Strong brand moat or regulated returns
5-6	Competitive but differentiated
3-4	Commodity price-taker
0-2	Government-controlled pricing or import-dependent

CPS — Currency Protection Score (0-10)

Score	Description
9-10	Hard currency revenue or literal foreign asset
7-8	Majority USD/hard currency revenues
5-6	Mixed domestic + export
3-4	Pure domestic but can reprice in inflation
0-2	Pure domestic rupee, can't reprice

NIS — New Economy Infrastructure Score (0-10)

Score	Description
9-10	Core DC/AI infra, defence, water, grid modernisation
7-8	Healthcare, financial infrastructure, insurance
5-6	Consumer staples, essential services
3-4	Old economy cyclicals with partial new era relevance
0-2	Disrupted sectors, pure aviation, legacy models

IER Formula

IER = (HAS×0.25) + (EQS×0.20) + (PPS×0.20) + (CPS×0.20) + (NIS×0.15)

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Step 2B: Score Each MF Holding

Use category-level IER proxies. If top holdings are available, adjust accordingly.

MF Category	IER	Notes
Gold ETF / Gold Fund	9.1	Best inflation era MF category
Silver ETF / Silver Fund	8.5	Physical deficit + war premium
Commodity Fund	7.5	Hard assets, diversified
International Fund (US/Nasdaq)	7.1	Dollar hedge + AI infrastructure
International Fund (Taiwan/Korea)	7.3	Semiconductor supercycle
Infrastructure Fund	6.9	Grid, roads, physical assets
Defence Fund	6.6	Defence supercycle
Pharma/Healthcare Fund	6.4	Inflation-resistant demand
PPFCF (Parag Parikh Flexi Cap)	6.2	International equity buffer + quality tilt
Multi Asset Fund	5.6	Moderate alignment, diversified
IT/Tech Fund (India)	5.6	Dollar earner but AI disruption risk
Flexi Cap (generic)	5.5	Holdings-dependent
Large Cap (domestic)	5.0	FII re-rating risk
Banking / Financial Services Fund	4.8	Rupee-denominated, rate-sensitive
Mid Cap	4.8	Higher risk, mixed alignment
ELSS (equity-linked savings)	4.6	Locked, mixed — flag illiquidity
Small Cap	4.0	Liquidity risk in inflation
Debt Fund (short duration)	2.8	Rupee paper
Liquid Fund	3.2	Cash equivalent, inflation erodes
Debt Fund (long duration)	2.0	WORST inflation era instrument

Special cases:

• Zerodha Silver ETF FoF: Score 8.5 — physical silver deficit, war premium
• Motilal S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100 MF: Score 7.1 — dollar hedge, AI infra, SEBI cap breached so flag as no-add
• SBI ELSS: Score 4.6 — locked, treat as illiquid, note lock-in period
• Nippon Taiwan MF: Score 7.3 — semiconductor supercycle, AI supply chain

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Step 3: Apply Time Horizon Modifier

After base IER, apply adjustments:

SHORT (1-2 years)

• +1.0: Active war beneficiaries (GESHIP, MCX, Gold ETFs, Muthoot, Coal India)
• -1.0: Ceasefire rotation holds (HDFC Bank pre-deal, Maruti pre-deal)
• -0.5: Long-gestation infrastructure (HAL, POWERGRID multi-year order execution)
• Kill switch stocks = 0 regardless

MEDIUM (3-5 years) — DEFAULT

• No adjustments. Base IER applies.

LONG (7-10 years)

• +1.0: New economy infrastructure (CGPOWER, BEL, POWERGRID, VA Tech Wabag, Apollo Hospital)
• +0.5: Reinvestment compounders (MCX, Muthoot, HDFC Bank post-ceasefire)
• -1.0: War-specific thesis stocks (GESHIP drops to ~5.5 — freight normalises)
• -1.5: Structurally disrupted by AI (generic IT outsourcing)
• -1.0: Any MF with SEBI international cap breached — flag as no-add even if IER is high

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Step 4: Portfolio IER Calculation

Portfolio IER = Σ (holding weight% × adjusted IER)

Calculate:

1. Equity book IER
2. MF book IER
3. Combined IER (weighted by book sizes — e.g., if equity is 37% and MF is 63% of total portfolio)

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Step 5: Generate the Dashboard

IER Rating Bands

Score	Rating
8.0–10.0	🏆 INFLATION ERA CHAMPION
6.5–7.9	✅ INFLATION READY
5.0–6.4	⚡ TRANSITIONING
3.5–4.9	⚠️ ERA MISMATCH
0–3.4	🔴 DEFLATION ERA HOLDOVER

Output format

Read references/dashboard-template.md before generating any HTML. It specifies the exact design tokens, section layout, score bar colors, card styles, table formatting, and conditional rendering rules.

The output is a single self-contained HTML file: campfire-era-report.html

All 10 report sections are rendered in this file. Do not print the report as plaintext in chat.

Sections to include:

1. Scores Dashboard — hero score cards with bars and one-line verdict
2. Dimension Breakdown — five rows with 120px bars and gap flags
3. Holding-by-Holding Scores — full table sorted by IER descending
4. Inflation Era Champions — top 3 cards with green left-edge accent
5. Era Mismatches — bottom 3 cards with red left-edge accent
6. Gap Analysis — one card per dimension below 6.5; "no gaps" card otherwise
7. MF Book Deep Dive — (skip if EQUITY-only)
8. Dual Scenario — (skip if WAR or CEASEFIRE only)
9. The Era Narrative — prose card
10. The One Trade — prominent bordered card

After presenting the file, follow with a one-paragraph inline summary: combined IER, rating band, the one trade, and the most important gap dimension (if any).

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Step 6: Ceasefire Adjustments (CEASEFIRE or DUAL mode)

Score Drops on Ceasefire

Holding	IER Change	Reason
GESHIP	-2.5	War freight premium disappears
Gold ETFs / SGBMAY28	-1.5	Gold corrects 15-20% on peace
MCX	-0.8	Energy derivative volumes fall
MUTHOOTFIN	-0.3	Gold correction reduces collateral
COALINDIA	-0.5	Energy security narrative weakens
OILINDIA	-1.0	Lower oil price

Score Rises on Ceasefire

Holding	IER Change	Reason
HDFCBANK	+1.8	FII re-entry, maximum re-rating beta
INDIGO (re-entry only)	+2.5	Jet fuel crash → earnings explosion
MARUTI	+1.5	Auto pent-up demand
TATA STEEL	+1.2	Global industrial recovery
HINDCOPPER	+1.0	Industrial demand recovery
TITAN	+1.8	Gold corrects → jewellery volumes explode
KALYAN JEWELLERS	+1.5	Same as Titan
APOLLOHOSP	+0.5	Consumer healthcare recovers

Ceasefire Neutral

POWERGRID, BEL, HAL, CGPOWER, VA Tech Wabag, IT exporters, pharma exporters — structural, not war-specific.

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Step 7: ARJUN Framework (Full Definition)

ARJUN = Adaptive Real-time Judgement for Indian Underlyings and Nifty

ARJUN is a war-context portfolio scoring system designed for the Iran-Hormuz crisis environment (Feb 28, 2026 onwards). It scores every Indian holding on five war-specific dimensions, each 0–10. It is separate from IER — IER measures structural inflation era alignment, ARJUN measures near-term war-context performance. Together they form the complete dual-lens framework.

ARJUN's Five Dimensions

OES — Oil Exposure Score (0 to +10, can be negative)

How does this holding benefit or suffer from oil at $107/bbl?

Score	Meaning	Examples
+8 to +10	Direct upstream oil winner — revenues rise with crude	Oil India, ONGC, GESHIP (freight = f(oil disruption))
+5 to +7	Indirect oil beneficiary	Coal India (substitute energy), MCX (crude derivative volumes)
0 to +4	Oil-neutral or marginal impact	IT exporters, pharma, gold NBFCs
-3 to -1	Moderate oil cost exposure	Reliance (O2C drag), Tata Steel (energy inputs)
-7 to -4	Severe oil cost exposure, limited pricing power	Aviation, paints, fertilisers, logistics
-10 to -8	Existential oil cost crisis, government-controlled pricing	OMCs (HPCL, BPCL, IOC) losing ₹35/litre diesel

FDS — FII Dependency Score (0 to 10)

How much does this stock need FII capital to re-rate? Lower is better in war mode (FIIs are selling ₹2 lakh crore).

Score	Meaning	Examples
0–2	No FII dependence — government-contracted, PSU, or DII-owned compounder	Coal India, POWERGRID, BEL, HAL
3–4	Low FII dependence — strong domestic institutional ownership	Muthoot, MCX, NTPC
5–6	Moderate FII dependence — FII re-rating helpful but not required	Bharti, TCS, Infosys
7–8	High FII dependence — valuation driven by FII sentiment	HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, large-cap private banks
9–10	Entirely FII-dependent — only re-rates when FIIs return	High-PE consumer discretionary, premium fintech

Note: FDS is inverted for ARJUN composite — a score of 0 (no FII dependence) is WAR POSITIVE.

RSS — Rupee Sensitivity Score (+10 to -10)

Does rupee at ₹96/USD help or hurt this holding?

Score	Meaning	Examples
+8 to +10	Dollar earner — every rupee depreciation = direct NAV gain	GESHIP, MON100, MAFANG, Gold ETFs, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma
+4 to +7	Partial dollar exposure — some natural hedge	Tata Steel, Hindalco, Reliance, Navinfluor
0 to +3	Domestic but can reprice inputs	Coal India, MCX, Bharti, Muthoot
-3 to -1	Domestic revenues, some import exposure	HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI
-7 to -4	Imports significantly, limited pass-through	Paints, electronics assembly, auto components
-10 to -8	Massive importer with no pricing power	Fertilisers, LNG importers, pure import-dependent

GAS — Geopolitical Alpha Score (0 to 10)

Does India-Pak cold war, Hormuz crisis, or defence supercycle directly drive this stock's earnings?

Score	Meaning	Examples
9–10	Primary earnings driver is geopolitical — order book grows with crisis	HAL (₹2.22L crore order book), BEL, Mazagon Dock, GESHIP
7–8	Strong geopolitical tailwind — meaningful earnings acceleration	Data Patterns, MTAR Tech, Oil India
4–6	Moderate — benefits from geopolitical environment indirectly	MCX (war drives volumes), Coal India (energy security)
1–3	Tangential — crisis is noise, not signal	IT exporters, pharma, FMCG
0	Zero geopolitical alpha — domestic demand driven	Housing finance, consumer staples, pure retail

CRS — Ceasefire Risk Score (0 to 10)

How much does this holding suffer when Hormuz reopens and oil falls to $85?

Score	Meaning	Examples
9–10	KILL SWITCH — immediate manual exit required on deal	GESHIP (freight collapses), IndiGo (was kill switch, now exited)
7–8	High ceasefire risk — position should be reduced on deal	MCX (energy volumes fall), gold ETFs (gold corrects)
4–6	Moderate ceasefire risk — thesis partly weakens	Muthoot (gold correction), Coal India (energy security narrative weakens)
1–3	Low ceasefire risk — structural, not war-dependent	POWERGRID, BEL, IT exporters, pharma
0	Zero ceasefire risk — benefits from peace	HDFC Bank, Maruti, Titan, IndiGo re-entry

ARJUN Composite Calculation

Step 1: Convert FDS to war-positive form: FDS_WAR = 10 - FDS Step 2: Normalise OES to 0-10 scale: OES_NORM = (OES + 10) / 2 Step 3: ARJUN_COMPOSITE = (OES_NORM + FDS_WAR + RSS_NORM + GAS) / 4

Where RSS_NORM = (RSS + 10) / 2

Step 4: UNIFIED SCORE = (IER × 0.60) + (ARJUN_COMPOSITE × 0.40)

ARJUN Pre-Scored Key Holdings

Stock	OES	FDS	RSS	GAS	CRS	ARJUN_C	Notes
GESHIP	+9	2	+10	10	10	9.4	Maximum war alignment
COALINDIA	+6	1	+3	5	4	7.9	Energy security PSU
MCX	+5	3	+3	7	7	7.1	War volume monopoly
MUTHOOTFIN	+2	3	+5	4	4	6.8	Gold proxy
GOLDETFS	+3	0	+10	6	8	8.1	Hard currency gold
SGBMAY28	+3	0	+10	6	8	8.1	Tax-free redemption at 2028 maturity — hold to term if present
HAL	+3	2	+2	10	1	7.3	Defence pure play
BEL	+2	2	+2	9	1	6.9	Defence electronics
HDFCBANK	-2	9	-3	0	0	2.9	Ceasefire play
INDIGO	-9	5	-5	0	10	1.1	KILL SWITCH — exit
HPCL/BPCL	-10	4	-6	0	3	0.8	Uninvestable in war
MON100	+2	0	+10	3	2	7.5	Dollar hedge
BHARTIARTL	+1	5	+2	2	1	5.4	Domestic compounder
POWERGRID	+2	2	+1	3	1	5.3	Structural, low war alpha

Interpretation Matrix (IER × ARJUN)

IER	ARJUN_C	Unified	Label	Action
≥7	≥7	≥7.0	🎯 CONVICTION HOLD	Full position, size up if underweight
≥7	4–6.9	5.8–7.0	📅 ERA COMPOUNDER	Hold through war, long-term
≥7	<4	<5.8	🌅 ERA HOLD / WAR DRAG	Hold for decade, ignore war noise
5–6.9	≥7	5.8–6.9	⚡ WAR BOOST	War inflating score — watch ceasefire
5–6.9	4–6.9	5.0–6.0	⚖️ BALANCED	Neutral — neither era champion nor war star
<5	≥7	4.2–5.8	⏰ WAR TRADE ONLY	Exit on ceasefire, not a decade hold
<5	<4	<4.0	🔴 EXIT BOTH ERAS	Wrong for war AND new era — exit now

Apply this matrix to every holding. The label is the single most actionable output per stock.

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Step 8: India-Specific Adjustments

Always apply to Indian portfolios:

• Gold duty floor 15% = permanent +1 CPS for all gold-linked businesses
• DII ₹31,000 crore/month SIP floor = +0.3 EQS for Nifty 50 components
• Rupee at ₹96+ = +1 CPS for all dollar earners
• RBI financial repression = -1 CPS for pure rupee long-duration instruments
• SEBI $7B international MF cap breached = flag all international MF as no-add

Kill Switch Override

Flag explicitly regardless of score:

• INDIGO in war mode → IER override to 2.7, flag EXIT
• GESHIP on ceasefire → flag kill switch active
• OMCs always → uninvestable in war mode, flag explicitly
• SGBMAY28 → if present in portfolio, never sell regardless of IER; note tax-free redemption at 2028 maturity under Indian tax law — applies to any holder

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Reference Files

• references/dashboard-template.md — HTML layout spec, design tokens, section-by-section rendering rules (read before generating HTML)
• references/scoring-tables.md — Pre-scored Indian and global stocks (read before scoring)
• references/era-context.md — Macro evidence base for the new inflationary era