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Risk warning catalysts

Skill spikeHongg/china-stock-research-skills/skills/risk-warning-catalysts

Open-source agent skills for China stock and A-share research: Chinese-first outputs, citation-first analysis, and orchestrated workflows.

Install
npx -y skills add spikeHongg/china-stock-research-skills --skill risk-warning-catalysts

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Build a source-backed monitoring system for risk signals and catalysts in an A-share company. Use this skill when turning static research into an update process covering orders, financing, governance, policy, operations, and sentiment. All outputs must include accessible source links.

SKILL.md

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Risk Warning Catalysts

Convert research into a live monitoring framework.

Non-Negotiable Rules

  • Every risk and catalyst must point to a public source and a monitorable trigger.
  • Distinguish confirmed events from watch items.
  • Use thresholds where possible, not vague language.
  • Do not turn monitoring points into valuation conclusions here.
  • Default every intermediate and final output to Simplified Chinese unless the user explicitly requests another language.

Read First

  • skills/shared/references/source-registry.md
  • skills/shared/references/citation-standard.md
  • skills/shared/references/analysis-pattern-selector.md
  • skills/shared/references/language-output-standard.md
  • skills/shared/templates/catalyst-calendar.md
  • skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/monitoring-dashboard.md
  • If the company is project-driven or asset-ramp sensitive, also load the matching shared overlay.
  • If the company is an IDC or AI-compute case, skills/shared/references/idc-heavy-asset-transition-overlay.md and skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/idc-monitoring-indicators.md are optional example overlays.

When to Use

  • Build a watchlist after a deep-dive report.
  • Track whether the thesis is improving or deteriorating.
  • Prepare a monthly or event-driven update process.

Workflow

  1. Pull the latest announcements and identify what changed since the last report.
  2. Map risks by category: execution, finance, governance, policy, customer, technology, litigation.
  3. Map catalysts by category: orders, policy, financing, asset disposals, utilization, margin improvement.
  4. Attach a threshold, expected evidence source, and review frequency to each item.
  5. Build a monthly dashboard and catalyst calendar.

Required Output

  • 事实: confirmed risks, confirmed catalysts, last update status
  • 解读: which factors matter most to the thesis and why
  • 待验证问题: which missing data points could change the signal
  • Dashboard: metric, threshold, latest value, source, next check date

Boundaries

  • Do not restate the full strategy review.
  • Do not recalculate all financial ratios unless needed for a monitor.
  • Do not produce target price or position sizing.

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