Idea validation

Idea Validation

Guide founders from raw idea to validated hypothesis with confidence to commit or kill.

Workflow

1. Diagnose Stage

Ask: "Where are you in the journey?"

Stage	Signals	Next Step
Raw idea	"I'm thinking about..."	→ Go to Step 2
Hypothesis	Has problem + solution defined	→ Go to Step 3
Interviewed	Talked to 5+ people	→ Go to Step 4
Testing	Has MVP/landing page	→ Go to Step 5

2. Shape the Hypothesis

Help founder articulate three components (Kevin Hale/YC framework):

1. Problem: What burning pain exists? Who has it?
2. Solution: What's the experiment/MVP?
3. Insight: Why will YOU win? (unfair advantage)

Unfair advantages to probe for:

• Founder-market fit (lived the problem, domain expertise)
• Market timing (20%+ annual growth)
• 10x better product possibility
• Built-in distribution/word-of-mouth
• Network effects potential

Output: One-sentence hypothesis in format:

"[Target customer] struggles with [problem] because [root cause]. We believe [solution] will work because [insight/unfair advantage]."

3. Validate the Problem

Quick Validation (60 min) — Tom Bilyeu Method

For rapid signal-checking before deep interviews:

Problem Hunt (15 min) Search Reddit, Twitter, Facebook groups, forums for:

• "Why is there no..."
• "I wish someone would make..."
• "I've tried 5 different solutions..."
• "Paying $X but it doesn't even..."

Collect 10 specific complaints. Can't find 10? Different problem.

Size Check (10 min) Google Trends + Keyword Planner:

• <1K monthly searches = Dead
• 1K-10K = Niche (can work)
• 10K-100K = Solid opportunity
• 100K+ = Major market

Competition Map (15 min) Find top 5 competitors. Check pricing pages + 1-star reviews.

• Pricing <$50/mo + bad reviews = struggling market
• Pricing $100+ with good reviews = profitable space

Look for patterns: "too complicated", "missing X feature" = your opening.

Deep Validation — Customer Interviews

How many conversations?

• B2C with uniform behavior: ~20 interviews
• B2B with varied buying patterns: 50+ interviews
• Keep going until clear patterns emerge

See references/interview-guide.md for question scripts and signal detection.

Critical rule: Anything short of "I want this!" is really "No thanks."

4. Assess Market Pull

Look for these "lightbulb moments" from successful founders:

Signal	Strength	Example
Polite interest	❌ Weak	"Sure, I'd check it out"
Unsolicited referrals	✅ Strong	People you didn't talk to reach out
Interrupted pitch	✅ Strong	"Wait, you can do WHAT?"
Pre-purchase on mockup	✅ Strong	Signed customers from Figma prototype
Inbound after launch	✅ Strong	133 leads in 72 hours (Pinwheel)

The Mom Test: Don't ask "Would you use this?" — ask "How have you tried to solve this before?" Past behavior > future predictions.

5. Test Before Building

Choose validation method based on idea type:

Idea Type	Validation Method
B2B SaaS	Sell on mockups/Figma before code
Consumer app	Simulate populated experience in Figma
Marketplace	Validate BOTH sides separately
Dev tools	Leverage personal network first, then SEO content

Nikita Bier principle: Do things that don't scale. Make it the BEST it could ever be manually. If it works, then automate. If you only launch the "scalable" version, you won't know if it failed due to concept or execution.

Landing page test (if applicable):

• Create page: "Finally, [solution] for [specific audience]"
• Run $20-50 in ads
• Conversion benchmarks:
  • <1% = Kill immediately
  • 2-5% = Test further
  • 5%+ = Build immediately

6. Decision Checkpoint

GO Signals

• People reaching out unprompted
• Strong reactions in interviews ("I need this")
• Pre-sales or LOIs on mockups
• Clear pattern in 20+ conversations
• You have an unfair advantage

PIVOT Signals

• Adjacent problem keeps coming up
• Different customer segment more excited
• Core insight valid, solution wrong

KILL Signals

• Lukewarm reactions after 20+ interviews
• Have to "convince" people of the problem
• Can't find 10 complaints in 15 min searching
• No unfair advantage identified
• Market too small (<1K searches, <$1B TAM)

Remember: If you have to ask "Do I have product-market fit?" — you don't. When you have it, you know.

Common Traps

See references/traps.md for the 7 deadly traps and how to avoid them.

Reference Files

• references/frameworks.md — All 5 validation frameworks in detail
• references/case-studies.md — 8 founder stories (Vanta, Flexport, etc.)
• references/interview-guide.md — Question scripts + what to listen for
• references/traps.md — 7 traps with detection and avoidance

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Adapted from Linas Beliūnas's The One-Person Unicorn founder skill set.