Prediction market oracle research
Skill S3YED/appie-kit/skills/ecc/prediction-market-oracle-research
Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.From its SKILL.md
npx -y skills add S3YED/appie-kit --skill prediction-market-oracle-researchAssembled from the repository path, not quoted from the project. Check it against their README if it does not work.
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SKILL.md
2.1 KB, 381 tokens by cl100k_base, as published. Nobody here has run it
Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-securitybefore granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
What ships with it
Read from the repository
Just SKILL.md. No reference files, no scripts.
Gives 0 of the 12 instructions most research analysis skills give in 381 tokens
Counted across 1,213 of the 2,113 authors here whose files we hold, read 2026-09-06
- Cite sources for every important claimin 47 of 1213, across 38 files
- Separate facts from inferences and recommendationsin 21 of 1213, across 12 files
- Write findings to a markdown filein 19 of 1213
- Label every insight with a confidence levelin 18 of 1213, across 8 files
- Read product marketing context before asking questionsin 18 of 1213, across 8 files
- Rank themes by frequency and intensityin 16 of 1213, across 6 files
- Establish research mode before proceedingin 16 of 1213, across 6 files
- Segment survey responses by customer tier or tenurein 16 of 1213, across 6 files
- Categorize support tickets before analyzingin 16 of 1213, across 6 files
- Weight research sources from the last twelve monthsin 16 of 1213, across 6 files
- Use at least five data points per segmentin 15 of 1213, across 5 files
- Extract verbatim quotes for all research findingsin 15 of 1213, across 5 files
Grouped from the skills themselves: near-identical wordings counted once, and counted by distinct author, so one author publishing three of these counts once. Length counted with cl100k_base; the agent that loads this file may tokenize it differently.