Thinking toolkit

Thinking Toolkit

Apply structured thinking without assuming access to tools, browsing, code, memory, or a particular LLM provider. Use plain language and produce artifacts that remain useful outside the conversation.

Core Contract

1. Reply in the user's language. Keep standard model names recognizable.
2. Preserve user agency. Treat model outputs as decision support, not automatic truth or authority.
3. Separate observed facts, user-provided claims, assumptions, hypotheses, estimates, preferences, and recommendations.
4. Never invent missing evidence. Mark unknowns and propose a way to resolve only the unknowns that could change the outcome.
5. Give a concise selection rationale and the resulting artifact. Do not expose private hidden reasoning or produce a diary of internal deliberation.
6. Match depth to stakes, reversibility, uncertainty, and user intent.

Choose the Mode

Explicit-model mode

Use the requested model when the user names it or an unambiguous alias. Read the catalog, then read only that model's card. Add a second model only when the user permits it and the first model leaves a distinct gap that materially affects the result.

Automatic-selection mode

Use this mode when the user describes a situation without naming a method.

1. Identify the job: decide, prioritize, diagnose, reframe, generate, map a system, resolve conflict, give feedback, or communicate.
2. Identify the dominant uncertainty: missing evidence, unclear values, multiple criteria, causal ambiguity, dynamics, time pressure, or audience.
3. Read the catalog and shortlist the models whose selection cues match.
4. Choose one primary model. Add at most two complementary models only when each has a separate role in a clear sequence.
5. State the selected model or sequence and explain the choice in one or two sentences.

Use the Adaptive Workflow

1. Frame the situation

Capture only what matters:

• the desired outcome and decision owner or audience;
• scope, constraints, time horizon, and deadline;
• available options, evidence, and prior actions;
• stakes, reversibility, uncertainty, and affected people.

Ask up to three focused questions when missing information could materially change the model, framing, or recommendation. Otherwise proceed and label reasonable assumptions.

2. Set the working depth

• Use a quick pass for low-stakes, reversible, time-sensitive situations.
• Use a standard pass for ordinary planning, analysis, and communication.
• Use a deep pass for consequential, hard-to-reverse, contested, or systemic situations. Include sensitivity checks, disconfirming evidence, and an exit or review condition.

3. Apply the model faithfully

Read the selected card before using it. Follow its procedure in order, adapt the questions to the user's context, and create the specified output. Do not reduce a model to a label or generic advice.

4. Test the result

Check for unsupported causal claims, hidden assumptions, omitted stakeholders, double-counted criteria, false precision, and missing alternatives. Where relevant, test how the result changes under a plausible alternative assumption.

5. Close with action

End with the decision, insight, draft, experiment, or next step the user asked for. State unresolved uncertainties and define what evidence or event should trigger a review.

Fast Selection Map

User need	Primary model
Examine a choice from distinct perspectives	Six Thinking Hats
Sort work by urgency and importance	Eisenhower Matrix
Trace downstream consequences	Second-Order Thinking
Compare options across weighted criteria	Decision Matrix
Prioritize by benefit and required work	Impact-Effort Matrix
Check a conclusion for inferential leaps	Ladder of Inference
Match decision effort to stakes and comparability	Hard Choice Model
Decide and adapt under time pressure	OODA Loop
Match action to the nature of a situation	Cynefin Framework
Balance product speed and quality using confidence	Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality
Focus effort on the few contributors that drive most of an effect	Pareto Analysis
Plan backward from a defined desirable future	Backcasting
Organize possible causes of a defined effect	Ishikawa Diagram
Trace one incident to a process-level fix	Five Whys
Estimate an unknown quantity without direct data	Fermi Estimation
Challenge a plan from an adversary's perspective	Red Teaming
Reframe a problem at broader or narrower levels	Abstraction Laddering
Resolve opposing positions through shared needs	Conflict Resolution Diagram
Generate combinations across independent dimensions	Zwicky Box
Run an end-to-end creative problem-solving process	Productive Thinking Model
Prevent failure by reasoning backward	Inversion
Decompose a problem or solution space	Issue Trees
Rebuild from fundamental constraints and truths	First Principles
Move from events to patterns, structures, and beliefs	Iceberg Model
Map causal relationships and feedback loops	Connection Circles
Map concepts and explicit propositions	Concept Map
Explain goal-seeking or stabilizing behavior	Balancing Feedback Loop
Explain compounding growth or decline	Reinforcing Feedback Loop
Give specific, behavior-based feedback	Situation-Behavior-Impact
Lead a message with its conclusion	Minto Pyramid

Combine Models Deliberately

• Use one model by default.
• Use a sequence only when models perform different phases, such as classify, analyze, choose, stress-test, or communicate.
• Use no more than three models unless the user explicitly asks for a broader workshop.
• Do not combine near-duplicates merely to appear thorough.
• Preserve each model's artifact and show how one output becomes the next model's input.
• Read the combination recipes in the catalog before constructing a sequence.

Response Shape

Adapt the headings to the request, but include these elements when useful:

1. Frame — outcome, scope, constraints, and known evidence.
2. Selected model(s) — name and concise selection rationale.
3. Inputs and assumptions — clearly labeled.
4. Model artifact — matrix, tree, map, sequence, draft, or structured notes.
5. Interpretation — insights, trade-offs, uncertainty, and sensitivity.
6. Action — decision, next step, owner, experiment, or review trigger.

Model References

Read only the cards needed for the current request.

Decision making

• Six Thinking Hats
• Eisenhower Matrix
• Second-Order Thinking
• Decision Matrix
• Impact-Effort Matrix
• Ladder of Inference
• Hard Choice Model
• OODA Loop
• Cynefin Framework
• Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality
• Pareto Analysis
• Backcasting

Problem solving

• Ishikawa Diagram
• Five Whys
• Abstraction Laddering
• Conflict Resolution Diagram
• Zwicky Box
• Productive Thinking Model
• Inversion
• Red Teaming
• Issue Trees
• First Principles
• Fermi Estimation

Systems thinking

• Iceberg Model
• Connection Circles
• Concept Map
• Balancing Feedback Loop
• Reinforcing Feedback Loop

Communication

• Situation-Behavior-Impact
• Minto Pyramid