Prediction markets analysis

Skill OctagonAI/octagon-mcp-server/skills/prediction-markets-analysis

Generate Kalshi prediction market research reports or fetch structured event history. Use when the user mentions Kalshi, prediction markets, market probability, expected return, or event history.From its SKILL.md

Install

npx -y skills add OctagonAI/octagon-mcp-server --skill prediction-markets-analysis

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SKILL.md

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Prediction Markets Analysis

Use this skill for Kalshi event research and historical prediction market analysis.

When to use

The user shares a Kalshi market URL
The user wants a structured report on one prediction market event
The user wants event history across snapshots or runs

Query format

Generate a report for the Kalshi market <KALSHI_URL>.

For structured history retrieval:

Fetch historical data for the Kalshi event ticker <EVENT_TICKER>.

MCP calls

Report generation:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-prediction-markets-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Generate a report for the Kalshi market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcy/btc-price-range-eoy/kxbtcy-27jan0100"
  }
}

Structured history:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "prediction_markets_history",
  "arguments": {
    "event_ticker": "KXBTCY-27JAN0100",
    "limit": 50,
    "include_analysis": true
  }
}

Tool selection rules

Use octagon-prediction-markets-agent for analyst-style reports
Use prediction_markets_history for structured history, pagination, or time filtering
If the user wants guaranteed fresh data, set cache to false

Output expectations

Compare model probability to market probability
Highlight edge, expected return, and risk factors
Surface missing Kalshi URL immediately when absent

Follow-up prompts

"Refresh the report instead of using cache."
"Show the event history with analysis included."
"Summarize the largest drivers of divergence between model and market."