Skill

Prediction Market Settlement Skill

Extends: solana-dev-skill

An addon skill for Claude Code covering safe settlement of prediction markets, parametric/event derivatives, and outcome-resolved programs on Solana. This is distinct from price-oracle safety (Pyth/Switchboard live price reads) — it covers trusting a claim about a past event (a match result, a stat threshold, a parametric trigger) and paying out funds against that claim without getting drained.

When Claude Should Load This Skill

Load when the user is:

• Building or reviewing a prediction market, parlay, or outcome-derivative program
• Verifying off-chain data (sports stats, election results, weather data) against an on-chain claim
• Implementing a Merkle-proof based settlement instruction
• Designing dispute/challenge windows before payout
• Resolving a market using a price oracle as a fallback or threshold check
• Reviewing a settlement instruction for manipulation or replay risk

Do NOT load for: generic price-oracle reads with no settlement/payout step (use solana-dev-skill or the oracle-safety skill instead), generic DeFi swaps/lending (use sendai/jupiter skills), token launches (use token-launch skill).

Skill Files

File	Load when...
merkle-outcome-verification.md	Verifying an off-chain attestor's signed Merkle root against a claimed leaf on-chain
dispute-windows.md	Designing the challenge period, who can challenge, what happens on a successful challenge
pyth-fallback-resolution.md	Falling back to a live price oracle when there's no off-chain attestor, or resolving a price-threshold market
settlement-account-patterns.md	Designing the Anchor PDA/escrow/vault structure that holds funds until resolution
anti-manipulation.md	Reviewing for stale roots, replay, attestor key compromise, late-attestation attacks
resources.md	Links to reference implementations, audits, and further reading

Core Principles (always apply)

1. Never pay out on an unverified claim. Every settlement instruction must trace back to either a verified Merkle proof against a stored root, or a verified oracle account — never a bare instruction argument.
2. Every resolution path needs a dispute window, even a short one. Instant finality on event-outcome data is the single most common exploit vector in this category.
3. Treat the attestor key like an oracle key. Compromise/rotation procedures apply the same scrutiny as a price-feed authority.
4. Settlement is the last line of defense, not the first. Validate market state, expiry, and one-shot resolution (no double-settlement) before touching funds.

Relationship to Core Skills

This skill assumes solana-dev-skill's programs-anchor.md and security.md are already loaded. It does not duplicate generic Anchor account-constraint guidance — only settlement-specific patterns.