Fundamental context

Fundamental Context

Gather fundamental context for: $ARGUMENTS

Overview

• Implementation status: code-backed
• Local entry script: <bundle-root>/fundamental-context/run.py
• Primary purpose: add best-effort growth, earnings, institution, capital-flow, and dragon-tiger context around one symbol without pretending complete coverage
• Research layer: fundamental data collection (Stage 2: Data Collection & Quality Assurance, Stage 3: Data Cleaning & Normalization, Stage 4: Feature Engineering - Fundamental subset)
• Workflow stages: stage 2 Data Collection & Quality Assurance and stage 3 Data Cleaning & Normalization for non-price data
• Local executor guarantee: query the current adapter set, surface status fields and source chains, and return partial blocks rather than crash on unsupported paths

Use When

• The user wants deeper non-price context after or alongside market analysis.
• The user wants capital-flow or dragon-tiger hints before forming a view.
• The user wants a compact fundamental block without the full narrative layer.

Do Not Use When

• The user only wants price or technical interpretation. Use market-analyze or technical-scan.
• The user wants the full report bundle. Use market-brief.
• The user wants a reusable multi-block market snapshot. Use stock-data.
• The user expects full point-in-time fundamental warehousing or guaranteed cross-provider completeness. This skill does not guarantee that locally.

Inputs

• Normal case: one stock symbol.
• If symbol is omitted, the skill may reuse last_symbol from the same execution context.
• Capability note:
  • richer results depend on the optional provider stack being available
  • current blocks are adapter-driven and best-effort
  • the agent should say whether the request requires strict as-of correctness that this local path may not fully guarantee

Execution

Step 1: Define fundamental data requirements

Before collecting fundamental data, clarify what is needed:

Fundamental data categories:

• Financial statements (income, balance sheet, cash flow)
• Growth metrics (revenue, earnings, margins)
• Valuation metrics (P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA)
• Profitability metrics (ROE, ROA, gross margin, net margin)
• Capital structure (debt/equity, interest coverage)
• Institutional ownership and changes
• Capital flow (northbound, margin trading, dragon-tiger)
• Sector and industry classification

Data quality requirements:

• Point-in-time correctness (no look-ahead bias)
• Restatement handling (use as-reported or as-restated consistently)
• Reporting lag (announcement date vs. period end date)
• Fiscal period alignment (quarterly, annual, TTM)
• Unit consistency (yuan, millions, billions)

A-share specific requirements:

• CSRC industry classification
• ST/*ST status and history
• Suspension history and reasons
• Dragon-tiger list appearances (institutional vs. retail)
• Northbound (Stock Connect) flow
• Margin trading balance and changes
• Pledge ratio (share pledging by major shareholders)

Step 2: Collect fundamental data with status tracking

Run the local executor and track data availability:

python3 <bundle-root>/fundamental-context/run.py <symbol>

Status model interpretation:

• ok: Adapter returned complete and meaningful block
• partial: Only some expected fields available (specify which)
• not_supported: Local path does not currently support the block
• stale: Data available but outdated (specify age)
• error: Adapter failed (specify error type)

For each data block, document:

• Status (ok/partial/not_supported/stale/error)
• Source chain (which provider/adapter)
• Data freshness (as-of date)
• Completeness (% of expected fields present)
• Known limitations (missing fields, stale data, etc.)

Step 3: Validate and clean fundamental data

Apply systematic validation and cleaning:

Financial Statement Validation

Income statement checks:

• Revenue >= 0 (negative revenue is rare, flag for investigation)
• Gross profit <= Revenue (gross margin <= 100%)
• Operating profit consistency (revenue - COGS - opex)
• Net income consistency (operating profit + non-operating - tax)
• EPS calculation: net income / weighted average shares

Balance sheet checks:

• Assets = Liabilities + Equity (accounting identity)
• Current assets >= 0, Current liabilities >= 0
• Total equity can be negative (flag as distressed)
• Book value per share: total equity / shares outstanding
• Working capital: current assets - current liabilities

Cash flow checks:

• Operating cash flow vs. net income (quality of earnings)
• Free cash flow: operating CF - capex
• Cash flow from financing (debt issuance, equity issuance, dividends)
• Cash balance change = sum of three cash flow categories

Cross-statement validation:

• Net income (income statement) flows to equity (balance sheet)
• Depreciation (income statement) flows to accumulated depreciation (balance sheet)
• Capex (cash flow) flows to PP&E (balance sheet)
• Dividends (cash flow) reduce retained earnings (balance sheet)

Growth Metrics Calculation

Revenue growth:

• YoY growth: (revenue_t - revenue_{t-4}) / revenue_{t-4} (quarterly)
• QoQ growth: (revenue_t - revenue_{t-1}) / revenue_{t-1}
• CAGR: (revenue_latest / revenue_earliest)^(1/years) - 1
• Growth consistency: % of quarters with positive YoY growth

Earnings growth:

• EPS growth YoY, QoQ, CAGR (same formulas as revenue)
• Earnings surprise: (actual EPS - consensus EPS) / |consensus EPS|
• Earnings quality: operating CF / net income (>1 is good)

Margin trends:

• Gross margin: (revenue - COGS) / revenue
• Operating margin: operating profit / revenue
• Net margin: net income / revenue
• Margin expansion/contraction over time

Valuation Metrics Calculation

Price multiples:

• P/E ratio: price / EPS (use TTM or forward)
• P/B ratio: price / book value per share
• P/S ratio: market cap / revenue
• EV/EBITDA: enterprise value / EBITDA

Valuation context:

• Historical percentile (current P/E vs. 5-year range)
• Sector relative (P/E vs. sector median)
• Growth-adjusted (PEG ratio: P/E / earnings growth rate)
• Quality-adjusted (P/E vs. ROE, margin, cash flow quality)

A-share valuation considerations:

• A-share vs. H-share premium/discount (if dual-listed)
• Sector rotation effects (growth vs. value cycles)
• Policy sensitivity (regulatory risk premium)
• Liquidity premium (large cap vs. small cap)

Profitability and Efficiency Metrics

Return metrics:

• ROE: net income / average equity
• ROA: net income / average assets
• ROIC: NOPAT / invested capital
• ROE decomposition (DuPont): net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier

Efficiency metrics:

• Asset turnover: revenue / average assets
• Inventory turnover: COGS / average inventory
• Receivables turnover: revenue / average receivables
• Days sales outstanding (DSO): 365 / receivables turnover

Capital structure:

• Debt/Equity ratio
• Interest coverage: EBIT / interest expense
• Net debt: total debt - cash
• Net debt / EBITDA (leverage ratio)

Institutional and Capital Flow Analysis

Institutional ownership:

• Total institutional ownership %
• Changes in institutional ownership (QoQ)
• Top institutional holders and their changes
• Foreign institutional ownership (QFII, RQFII)

Northbound (Stock Connect) flow:

• Cumulative northbound holdings
• Daily/weekly/monthly northbound flow
• Northbound ownership % of float
• Northbound flow vs. price correlation

Margin trading:

• Margin trading balance (融资余额)
• Margin trading balance change (daily, weekly)
• Margin trading balance / market cap
• Margin trading sentiment (increasing = bullish, decreasing = bearish)

Dragon-tiger list (龙虎榜):

• Appearance frequency (how often on list)
• Net buying by institutions vs. retail
• Hot money (游资) activity patterns
• Institutional seat identification (券商营业部)

Share pledging:

• Total shares pledged by major shareholders
• Pledge ratio (pledged shares / total shares)
• Pledge risk (if stock price falls, forced liquidation risk)
• Changes in pledge ratio over time

Step 4: Synthesize fundamental context

Organize fundamental data into coherent narrative:

Part 1: Business and Financial Overview

• Company name, sector, industry (CSRC classification)
• Business description (main products/services)
• Market cap, shares outstanding, float
• Latest financial period (Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4, year)
• Data freshness and completeness status

Part 2: Growth Profile

• Revenue growth (YoY, QoQ, CAGR)
• Earnings growth (YoY, QoQ, CAGR)
• Growth consistency and quality
• Growth drivers (organic vs. acquisition, margin expansion, etc.)
• Growth outlook (consensus estimates if available)

Part 3: Profitability and Efficiency

• Margin trends (gross, operating, net)
• Return metrics (ROE, ROA, ROIC)
• Efficiency metrics (asset turnover, inventory turnover, DSO)
• Profitability vs. sector peers
• Quality of earnings (cash flow vs. net income)

Part 4: Valuation Assessment

• Current valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA)
• Historical valuation context (percentile vs. 5-year range)
• Sector relative valuation (vs. median, vs. peers)
• Growth-adjusted valuation (PEG ratio)
• Valuation interpretation (cheap/fair/expensive, with caveats)

Part 5: Capital Structure and Financial Health

• Debt/Equity ratio and trend
• Interest coverage and debt service ability
• Net debt / EBITDA (leverage)
• Working capital and liquidity
• Financial distress signals (negative equity, covenant violations, etc.)

Part 6: Institutional and Capital Flow

• Institutional ownership and recent changes
• Northbound flow trends and ownership
• Margin trading balance and sentiment
• Dragon-tiger list activity and patterns
• Share pledging risk assessment

Part 7: A-Share Specific Context

• ST/*ST status and risk
• Suspension history and reasons
• Regulatory environment and policy sensitivity
• Sector rotation and market regime effects
• A-H premium/discount (if applicable)

Part 8: Data Quality and Limitations

• Status of each data block (ok/partial/not_supported/stale)
• Source chain and provenance
• Known data gaps and missing fields
• Point-in-time correctness caveats
• Restatement risk and reporting lag

Step 5: Frame fundamental context honestly

When delivering results, maintain strict discipline:

Explicit status disclosure:

• State which blocks are ok, partial, not_supported, or stale
• List specific missing fields for partial blocks
• Identify source chain for each data block
• Specify data freshness (as-of date) for each block

Interpretation boundaries:

• Separate reported data from derived metrics
• Separate derived metrics from qualitative interpretation
• Label heuristic interpretations explicitly
• Do not convert partial data into strong conclusions

Fundamental analysis caveats:

• "Valuation appears cheap based on P/E, but this does not account for [growth, quality, risk factors]"
• "ROE is high, but leverage is also high, increasing financial risk"
• "Revenue growth is strong, but cash flow is weak, suggesting quality concerns"
• "Institutional ownership is increasing, but this is descriptive, not predictive"

A-share specific caveats:

• "Dragon-tiger list activity suggests retail speculation, not institutional conviction"
• "Northbound flow is positive, but represents only X% of float"
• "Margin trading balance is high, increasing downside risk if sentiment reverses"
• "Share pledging ratio is elevated, creating forced liquidation risk"

Step 6: Run the local executor

python3 <bundle-root>/fundamental-context/run.py <symbol>

Output Contract

• Minimum local executor output: human-readable text beginning with 基本面上下文.
• Core fields: fundamentals status, capital-flow status, dragon-tiger flag, growth metrics, earnings summary, institution changes, and sector-flow leaders when available.
• Side effects: updates session memory for the current execution context.
• Caller-facing delivery standard:
  • Eight-part structure: Business overview, growth profile, profitability, valuation, capital structure, institutional/capital flow, A-share context, data quality
  • Explicit status disclosure: State which blocks are ok/partial/not_supported/stale with specific missing fields
  • Source chain transparency: Identify data source and provenance for each block
  • Data freshness: Specify as-of date for each data block
  • Interpretation boundaries: Separate reported data, derived metrics, and qualitative interpretation
  • Fundamental analysis caveats: Explicit limitations on valuation, growth, and quality conclusions
  • A-share specific caveats: Dragon-tiger interpretation, northbound flow context, margin trading risk, pledge risk
  • No strong conclusions from partial data: Acknowledge incompleteness rather than overselling
  • Point-in-time correctness caveats: State when data may not be strictly point-in-time correct

Failure Handling

• Parse and argument errors: non-zero exit with a readable 命令错误 message.
• Missing optional providers: fail open into partial or not_supported blocks instead of crashing.
• Missing symbol with no reusable session symbol: readable guidance instead of a traceback.
• If only one non-price block is available, acknowledge the incompleteness rather than implying a full context sweep.
• Stale data: report age and recommend refresh if critical to decision.
• Restatement detected: flag and explain impact on historical comparisons.
• Missing critical fields: list specific gaps and impact on analysis.

Key Rules

• Fundamental blocks are best-effort and fail-open by design.
• Partial data is acceptable; hidden incompleteness is not.
• Keep the distinction between provider output and analyst interpretation visible.
• When point-in-time correctness is central to the decision, recommend a stricter data workflow instead of overselling this block.
• Status disclosure is mandatory. Always state ok/partial/not_supported/stale for each block.
• Source chain must be identified. State which provider/adapter supplied each block.
• Data freshness must be specified. State as-of date for each block.
• Valuation conclusions must be qualified. "Appears cheap" is not the same as "is cheap."
• Growth metrics must include quality assessment. Revenue growth without cash flow is a red flag.
• Capital flow interpretation must be cautious. Northbound buying is descriptive, not predictive.
• A-share specific risks must be highlighted. Dragon-tiger, margin trading, pledging, ST status.
• Do not convert partial adapter response into strong fundamental verdict.

Composition

• Often complements market-analyze, decision-support, and market-brief.
• Can be one component inside broader analysis or stock-data workflows.
• Should be combined with technical-scan for hybrid technical-fundamental analysis.
• Feeds into decision-support for position sizing based on fundamental quality.
• Used by analysis skill to support thesis with fundamental evidence.