Kelly finance

Kelly Finance

Overview

Use this skill as a practical FP&A and corporate-finance modeling desk. It builds clean three-statement models, turns assumptions into forecast tables, audits model logic, and explains finance outputs in English or Chinese.

For spreadsheet file creation or editing, also use the local spreadsheet/xlsx tooling if available. This skill owns the finance logic, modeling structure, checks, and presentation standard.

Default interaction mode: App UI. Unless the user explicitly asks for chat-only handling, generate or load the local model snapshot, start/reuse the local app with app/start.sh, and give the actual local URL. Use chat-only mode only when the user says "纯聊天", "chat only", "不要打开 UI", or similar.

Boundary

• The skill may build local workbooks, inspect local workbook/export files, normalize assumptions, write local model snapshots, and draft model-review recommendations.
• The app reads and writes local files only. It must not connect to banks/accounting systems, send files, mutate ERP records, move money, or change external systems.
• Treat financial models and assumptions as sensitive. Do not commit config.local.json, env files, app/.data/, private workbook exports, statements, customer/vendor data, or execution reports.
• Any external action, such as sending a model to investors or changing source-of-truth books, is approval-required and executed outside the app by the agent after human review.

Local App

Start the model review desk with:

skills/kelly-finance/app/start.sh

The app uses local HTTP on 127.0.0.1, preferring ports 3000 through 4000, or KELLY_FINANCE_UI_PORT when set.

Views:

• #/overview: model KPI dashboard, forecast table, and top model checks.
• #/checks and #/checks/<id>: review queue for formula ties, model quality issues, and delivery notes. Users can approve, request changes, block, or dismiss each check.
• #/workbook: generated workbook path and tab contract.
• #/settings: sanitized config summary, onboarding marker, lock, and data provider.

Demo mode:

• ?demo=1 opens a deterministic offline model for screenshots and review.
• lang=en or lang=zh forces UI chrome language.
• Demo responses never read or write files under app/.data/; demo decisions stay in the browser.

File Contract

Read references/finance-ui-schema.md before editing the app, scripts, or generated model snapshots.

Primary local files:

• app/.data/model_snapshot.json: canonical model dashboard and check queue.
• app/.data/decisions.json: user verdicts and notes keyed by check id.
• app/.data/agent_tasks.json: queued agent work for changes_requested checks.
• app/.data/execution_report.json: dry-run/apply handoff report for approved checks.
• app/.data/onboarding.json: onboarding completion marker.
• app/.data/agent.lock: temporary lock while the skill generates or executes.
• config.local.json: private company/model defaults, ignored by git.

Use node scripts/validate_ui_schema.ts app/.data/model_snapshot.json before relying on a snapshot in the UI.

Default Workflow

1. Clarify the model purpose only when needed: fundraising, board reporting, budget, acquisition, cash runway, lender package, or operating plan.
2. Identify the business model: SaaS, marketplace, ecommerce, services, consumer app, asset-heavy, or generic operating company.
3. Ask for missing high-impact inputs, but proceed with clearly labeled assumptions when the user wants speed.
4. Build or review the three statements in this order: assumptions, income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, checks.
5. Keep formulas auditable: drivers on assumptions tabs, calculations in schedules/statements, no hardcoded constants hidden inside formulas.
6. Add checks before presenting: balance sheet balances, cash roll-forward ties, net income flows to retained earnings, depreciation ties to PP&E, debt schedule ties to interest/debt balances, and working capital changes tie to balance-sheet movements.
7. Summarize key outputs: revenue, gross margin, EBITDA, net income, ending cash, cash runway, debt, free cash flow, and any broken checks.
8. Start/reuse the App UI and route the user to #/checks for human review unless the user asked for chat-only.

Create A Three-Statement Template

Use scripts/build_three_statement_model.py for a dependency-free Excel starter model:

python3 skills/kelly-finance/scripts/build_three_statement_model.py \
  --output /tmp/three_statement_model.xlsx \
  --company "ExampleCo" \
  --start-year 2026 \
  --years 5 \
  --currency USD \
  --base-revenue 1000000

The script creates an .xlsx workbook with:

• Assumptions: operating, working-capital, capex, debt, tax, dividend, and opening balance assumptions.
• Income Statement: revenue through net income.
• Balance Sheet: cash, working capital, PP&E, debt, equity, and balance check.
• Cash Flow: CFO, capex, financing, dividends, and ending cash.
• Checks: high-level model-integrity checks.

After generating, open or inspect the workbook when possible. If the user needs a polished investor-facing model, add formatting, scenario cases, and relevant operating schedules after the starter model is created.

Review Or Repair A Model

When reviewing an existing workbook:

• Preserve user formulas and formatting unless asked to rebuild.
• First map sheets, time axis, linked statements, hardcodes, and check rows.
• Find the actual source of a mismatch before changing formulas.
• Use a separate Checks or Audit tab if the workbook lacks one.
• Never force a balance-sheet plug without labeling it and explaining why it is temporary.

Use references/three-statement-modeling.md for the review checklist, forecast-driver conventions, and model quality bar.

Modeling Standards

• Use positive revenue and expense rows with clear sign labels; cash-flow outflows should be negative.
• Separate historical actuals from forecast periods when actuals are supplied.
• Use named scenarios or assumption columns for base/downside/upside cases instead of duplicating whole models.
• State whether currency values are units, thousands, or millions.
• Mark estimates as assumptions, not facts.
• Treat user financial data as sensitive. Do not commit private models, exports, statements, or customer/vendor-level finance data.

Common Outputs

• Three-statement forecast workbook.
• Lightweight cash runway model.
• Monthly budget or annual operating plan.
• SaaS metrics pack: ARR, MRR, churn, NRR, CAC, LTV, gross margin, burn, runway.
• Board/investor finance summary.
• Model audit report with broken checks and recommended fixes.