Financial modeling

Skill Mattakushi432/Claude-Code-Skills-Custom-DevTools-Pack/plugins/devtools-pack/skills/financial-modeling

A curated pack of custom Claude Code skills for developers — installable as a Claude Code plugin marketplace.

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npx -y skills add Mattakushi432/Claude-Code-Skills-Custom-DevTools-Pack --skill financial-modeling

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When to activate: financial model, P&L, cash flow projection, unit economics, SaaS metrics, ARR, MRR, churn, scenario analysis, sensitivity table, revenue forecast

SKILL.md

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Financial Modeling

Model Architecture

Tab Structure (Standard)

1. Assumptions   ← All inputs in one place
2. Revenue       ← Top-line build
3. COGS          ← Direct costs
4. OpEx          ← Operating expenses by department
5. P&L           ← Summary income statement
6. Cash Flow     ← Cash movements
7. Balance Sheet ← Assets / liabilities
8. KPIs          ← Dashboard metrics
9. Scenarios     ← Base / bull / bear
10. Sensitivity  ← Two-variable tables

Rule: Never hardcode numbers in formula cells. Every number must trace to Assumptions tab.

P&L Structure

Revenue
  - New ARR (new logos × ACV)
  - Expansion ARR (upsell + cross-sell)
  - Churned ARR (logo churn × ACV)
  = Net New ARR
  + Beginning ARR
  = Ending ARR
  ÷ 12
  = MRR

COGS
  - Hosting / infrastructure
  - Customer success salaries (if included)
  - Professional services
  = Gross Profit

Gross Margin % = Gross Profit / Revenue

Operating Expenses
  - Sales & Marketing (S&M)
  - Research & Development (R&D)
  - General & Administrative (G&A)
  = Total OpEx

EBITDA = Gross Profit - OpEx
EBITDA Margin % = EBITDA / Revenue

SaaS Metrics

ARR / MRR

ARR = MRR × 12
MRR = sum of all active subscription monthly values

Net Revenue Retention (NRR) = 
  (Beginning MRR + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) / Beginning MRR

Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) = 
  (Beginning MRR - Contraction - Churn) / Beginning MRR

Target benchmarks:
  NRR > 120% = Excellent (enterprise)
  NRR > 110% = Good (mid-market)
  NRR > 100% = Acceptable (SMB)
  GRR > 90%  = Healthy

Churn

Logo Churn Rate = Churned Customers / Beginning Customers
Revenue Churn Rate = Churned MRR / Beginning MRR
Monthly Churn → Annual Churn: 1 - (1 - monthly_churn)^12

Acceptable ranges:
  Enterprise SaaS: < 5% annual logo churn
  Mid-market:      < 10% annual logo churn
  SMB:             < 20% annual logo churn

Unit Economics

CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)

Blended CAC = (S&M spend in period) / (New customers acquired in period)

Fully-loaded CAC includes:
  - Sales salaries + commissions + benefits
  - Marketing spend (paid, events, content)
  - Marketing tools and tech stack
  - Sales tools (CRM, enrichment, sequencing)
  - Allocated overhead (rent, IT)

Payback Period (months) = CAC / (ACV/12 × Gross Margin %)
Target: < 18 months (SaaS), < 12 months (high-velocity)

LTV (Lifetime Value)

LTV = ACV × Gross Margin % / Annual Churn Rate

Example:
  ACV = $24,000
  Gross Margin = 75%
  Annual Churn = 10%
  LTV = $24,000 × 0.75 / 0.10 = $180,000

LTV:CAC Ratio:
  > 3x = Healthy
  > 5x = Strong
  < 2x = Unsustainable — fix CAC or churn first

Cash Flow Projection

Direct Method (13-Week Rolling)

Week | Beginning Cash | Cash In | Cash Out | Ending Cash
-----|----------------|---------|----------|------------
  1  |   $500,000    | $45,000 |  $80,000 |  $465,000
  2  |   $465,000    | $20,000 |  $75,000 |  $410,000
...

Cash In:
  + Customer collections (invoiced - DSO adjustment)
  + New bookings (when paid, not when signed)
  + Financing proceeds

Cash Out:
  - Payroll (bi-weekly)
  - Vendor payments (net-30 cycle)
  - Rent / utilities
  - One-time expenses

Runway Calculation

Monthly Burn = Total Cash Out (operating, not financing)
Net Burn = Monthly Burn - Monthly Revenue Collected
Runway = Cash Balance / Net Burn Rate

Include in burn: all operating expenses + capex
Exclude from burn: loan repayments (those reduce cash but aren't burn)

Scenario Analysis

Three-Scenario Template

Assumption          | Bear  | Base  | Bull
--------------------|-------|-------|------
New logos/month     |   5   |  10   |  18
ACV ($)             | 18K   |  24K  |  30K
Gross margin        |  68%  |  75%  |  78%
Annual churn        |  15%  |  10%  |   6%
S&M as % revenue    |  55%  |  40%  |  32%

Methodology: Hold one variable fixed, flex others proportionally. Name scenarios after a business assumption, not just "optimistic" — e.g., "Enterprise Pivot" vs "SMB Focus".

Sensitivity Table (Two-Variable)

                    Annual Churn Rate
ACV           5%      10%     15%     20%     25%
$15,000    $225K   $112K    $75K    $56K    $45K   ← LTV
$24,000    $360K   $180K   $120K    $90K    $72K
$36,000    $540K   $270K   $180K   $135K   $108K
$48,000    $720K   $360K   $240K   $180K   $144K

Build in Excel/Sheets using DATA TABLE (two-variable) or Google Sheets TABLE.

Key Benchmarks (SaaS 2024)

Metric	Seed	Series A	Series B	Public
ARR Growth	> 2x	> 2x	> 80%	> 30%
Gross Margin	> 60%	> 65%	> 70%	> 75%
Magic Number	> 0.5	> 0.75	> 1.0	> 1.0
Burn Multiple	< 3x	< 2x	< 1.5x	< 1x
NRR	> 100%	> 110%	> 115%	> 120%

Magic Number = Net New ARR / Prior Quarter S&M Spend Burn Multiple = Net Burn / Net New ARR

Model Checklist

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