Structured analytic techniques

Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) Index

SATs are formal methods that externalise analytical thinking, making it transparent, challengeable, and less susceptible to cognitive biases. Choose the right technique based on the analytical challenge.

When to Use SATs

• When the stakes are high (wrong answer = significant consequence)
• When multiple plausible explanations exist
• When cognitive biases are likely (confirmation, anchoring, availability)
• When you need to communicate your reasoning transparently
• When building on analysis from multiple analysts

Technique Categories

Diagnostic Techniques

Purpose: Evaluate existing analysis for quality and bias.

Technique	When to Use	Skill
Key Assumptions Check	Before or after any major assessment — surface and challenge unstated assumptions	key-assumptions-check
Quality of Information Check	When evidence quality is uncertain — assess source reliability and information gaps	Use source-assessment skill
Indicators Validation	When monitoring a developing situation — define observable markers of change	Part of horizon-scanning

Contrarian Techniques

Purpose: Challenge prevailing judgments and expose blind spots.

Technique	When to Use	Skill
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses	Multiple plausible explanations — systematically evaluate each against evidence	ach
Devil's Advocate / Red Team	When consensus is strong — deliberately argue the opposing position	red-team-analysis
What-If Analysis	Explore low-probability but high-impact scenarios	Part of horizon-scanning
High-Impact / Low-Probability	Ensure unlikely but catastrophic scenarios are considered	Combine threat-assessment + horizon-scanning

Imaginative Techniques

Purpose: Generate new ideas, hypotheses, and indicators.

Technique	When to Use	Skill
Brainstorming	Generate hypotheses, IOC types to collect, detection approaches	No dedicated skill — apply freely
Scenario Development	Explore multiple futures for strategic planning	horizon-scanning
Indicators Generation	Define early warning indicators for a scenario	horizon-scanning

Decision Guide: Which Technique?

Are you evaluating WHO did something?
  → ACH (ach skill)

Are you assessing a THREAT?
  → Threat Assessment (threat-assessment skill)

Are you challenging your OWN analysis?
  → Key Assumptions Check (key-assumptions-check skill)

Are you challenging SOMEONE ELSE's analysis?
  → Red Team / Devil's Advocate (red-team-analysis skill)

Are you looking FORWARD (emerging threats)?
  → Horizon Scanning (horizon-scanning skill)

Are you unsure if your evidence is RELIABLE?
  → Source Assessment (source-assessment skill)

Do you have MULTIPLE plausible explanations?
  → ACH (ach skill)

Combining Techniques

For complex assessments, combine techniques:

1. Key Assumptions Check first (surface your assumptions)
2. ACH for the core analysis (evaluate hypotheses)
3. Red Team to challenge the result (stress-test conclusions)
4. Horizon Scanning for forward-looking implications