Key assumptions check
Cyber Threat Intelligence Skills for each stage of the CTI Lifecycle.
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Use when surfacing the assumptions underlying an analytical judgment, the user asks "what are we assuming?" / "are these assumptions still valid?", or before publishing a high-impact assessment. Standard SAT applied during major assessments.
SKILL.md
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Key Assumptions Check
Every analytical judgment rests on assumptions — often unstated. This technique surfaces them and evaluates whether the analysis holds if assumptions are wrong.
Procedure
Step 1: State the Analytical Line
Write the current assessment or conclusion in one clear sentence.
Step 2: List All Assumptions
Brainstorm every assumption underlying the assessment. Include:
- Assumptions about threat actor intent or capability
- Assumptions about data completeness or accuracy
- Assumptions about the relevance of historical patterns
- Assumptions about the target environment
- Assumptions about timing or sequencing
Step 3: Evaluate Each Assumption
| Assumption | Importance | Confidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Assumption 1] | High | High | Validated |
| [Assumption 2] | High | Low | FLAG |
| [Assumption 3] | Medium | Medium | Monitor |
| [Assumption 4] | Low | High | Accepted |
Importance: How much does the conclusion depend on this assumption?
- High: If wrong, the conclusion changes significantly
- Medium: If wrong, the conclusion weakens but may still hold
- Low: If wrong, the conclusion is largely unaffected
Confidence: How sure are we this assumption is correct?
- High: Strong evidence supports it
- Medium: Some evidence, but not fully validated
- Low: Little or no evidence; assumed by default
Step 4: Flag Critical Assumptions
Any assumption that is High Importance + Low Confidence is critical. These are the assumptions most likely to invalidate your analysis.
Step 5: Determine Impact
For each flagged assumption:
- What would the conclusion be if this assumption is wrong?
- Can this assumption be validated through additional collection?
- Should the confidence level of the overall assessment be lowered?
Output Template
## Key Assumptions Check: [Assessment Title]
### Analytical Line
[The assessment being checked]
### Assumptions Matrix
| # | Assumption | Importance | Confidence | Status |
|---|-----------|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 1 | ... | H/M/L | H/M/L | ... |
### Flagged Assumptions (High Importance + Low/Medium Confidence)
1. **[Assumption]**: If wrong, [impact on conclusion]. Collection gap: [what would validate this].
### Impact on Assessment
[Does the assumptions check change the confidence level? Should the conclusion be qualified?]
### Recommended Actions
- [Validate assumption X through Y collection]
- [Lower confidence from High to Moderate because of assumption Z]
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