Technical analysis

Technical Analysis

Prompt-first skill. Follow the method below with your own reasoning to produce the Thinking Card. scripts/analyze.py is OPTIONAL — run it for exact indicator math, but the analysis is valid without it. The script implements exactly this method.

Role & objective

You are the Chair of a six-member DSE Technical Committee. Goal: turn a daily price history into one weighted technical score (−1..+1), a rating, and clear reasoning.

When to use

"Analyze the chart for GP", "is BEXIMCO technically bullish?", "what do RSI and MACD say?", "run technical analysis", "momentum/trend read". Pair with momentum-screen for trade setups, or feed the score into signal-synthesizer.

Inputs you need

Gather via the dse-data-acquisition skill:

• ohlcv — daily bars, oldest-first. Need ≥30 bars; ≥200 for the full moving-average stack (else flag limited_history_<200_bars).
• (optional) microstructure — circuit_state (limit_up/limit_down), floor_price.

If fewer than 30 bars are available, stop and say so — do not analyse a stub series.

Method — score each member in −1..+1, then weight

1. Trend (weight 0.25)

• Price above 200-day SMA → +0.3; below → −0.3.
• MA stack 50 > 150 > 200 → +0.3.
• ADX(14) ≥ 25 → +0.4 if +DI ≥ −DI, else −0.4. ADX < 25 → weak/no trend (0).

2. Momentum & oscillators (weight 0.22)

• RSI(14) 40–70 → +0.25; >70 → −0.15; <40 → −0.2.
• MACD line above signal → +0.25; below → −0.2.
• ROC(12) > 0 → +0.2; ≤ 0 → −0.2.
• MFI(14) within 20–80 → +0.1.

3. Volume & flow (weight 0.20)

• OBV slope rising (last ~10 bars) → +0.3; falling → −0.2.
• Relative volume vs 20-day avg ≥ 1.5× → +0.3; < 0.7× → −0.1.

4. Levels (weight 0.13)

• Distance to 60-bar support < 8% above → +0.3.
• Within 3% of 60-bar resistance → −0.2.

5. Chart pattern (weight 0.12)

• Price ≥ 40-bar high → +0.5 (breakout); range ratio < 0.12 → +0.1 (tight coil); price ≤ 40-bar low → −0.5.

6. Candlestick — latest bar (weight 0.08)

• Hammer (lower wick > 2× body, up bar) → +0.4; shooting star → −0.4; bullish engulfing → +0.3.

Clamp every member to [−1, +1].

Scoring rubric

composite = 0.25·trend + 0.22·momentum + 0.20·volume + 0.13·levels + 0.12·pattern + 0.08·candlestick

Rating: ≥0.5 strong_bullish · ≥0.15 bullish · −0.15..0.15 neutral · ≤−0.15 bearish · ≤−0.5 strong_bearish.

Chair (agreement vs conflict): members >0.15 are "bulls", <−0.15 "bears". Both present → conflict_penalty 0.2 (stand-aside, not a weak buy); none decisive → 0.1; one-sided → 0.

Confidence = clamp(0.55 + 0.4·|composite| − conflict_penalty − (0.15 if <200 bars), 0.1, 0.95).

Output (emit this Thinking Card)

{ "skill": "technical-analysis", "ticker": "..", "mode": "momentum", "as_of": "..",
  "score": 0.0, "confidence": 0.0, "rating": "..",
  "sub_scores": { "trend": 0.0, "momentum_oscillator": 0.0, "chart_pattern": 0.0,
                  "candlestick": 0.0, "levels": 0.0, "volume_flow": 0.0 },
  "chair_note": "..", "key_metrics": { "rsi_14": 0, "adx_14": 0, "macd_hist": 0 },
  "reasoning": ["..."], "flags": ["..."],
  "disclaimer": "Educational analysis only. Not financial advice." }

DSE pitfalls

• Circuit / floor price: if microstructure.circuit_state is limit_up/limit_down or floor_price is set, add flag microstructure_circuit_or_floor and treat momentum as unreliable.
• <200 bars: flag limited_history_<200_bars and cut confidence (−0.15).
• Thin liquidity: low relative volume weakens any breakout — don't over-weight it.

Optional precision helper

python3 scripts/analyze.py --input data.json --pretty
python3 scripts/analyze.py --input ../_fixtures/sample_input.json --pretty

Returns the same Thinking Card with exact sub_scores and key_metrics. Use it to verify your hand computation; if they disagree, trust the script's math and explain the gap.

Worked example

250 bars, price above a rising 50>150>200 stack, ADX 27 (+DI leading), RSI 58, MACD line > signal, OBV rising, volume 1.6× the 20-day average → trend ≈ +1.0, momentum ≈ +0.7, volume ≈ +0.6 → composite ≈ +0.55 → strong_bullish, confidence ≈ 0.77.

References

Formulas and DSE caveats: references/INDICATORS.md. Output is educational analysis only, never financial advice.