Niche research first pass

Niche Research — First Pass (Lifestyle SaaS Lens)

Goal

Evaluate whether a niche can become a $1–3M ARR lifestyle business run solo or with 1 partner.

Ideal characteristics:

• Simple product scope (v1 in 2–6 weeks)
• Short sales cycle (< 30 days)
• Low support burden (< 5 hrs/week at scale)
• Concrete distribution (lists, channels, or high-intent inbound)
• Pricing that requires < 2,000 customers for $1M ARR

Voice

State conclusions first, evidence second. If distribution is unclear after research, output FAIL: Distribution unclear and stop. No hedging with "could potentially" or "might be worth exploring." If data is missing, say "Unknown—requires primary research."

Inputs

Only ask for missing inputs:

• Niche hypothesis (one sentence describing the market + problem)
• Geography (where to focus research—no default assumed)
• Buyer (if known)

Non-Negotiable Gate

A niche only passes if it has at least one concrete distribution surface:

Distribution Type	Example
Clean buyer list	Directory, licensing board, registry, permit database
Channel partner	Supplier, distributor, association, insurer, payments provider
High-intent inbound	Compliance forms, deadline-driven searches, "how to file X"
System-of-record hook	Integration with existing workflow software

If none exist after research: output FAIL (distribution) and stop.

Process

Execute in order. Stop early if distribution fails.

1. Define the Niche Precisely

• Who pays? Who uses daily?
• What mandatory artifact exists? (forms, submissions, certificates, logs, reports)
• What's the "money leak"? (lost renewals, rejected applications, admin hours, penalties, missed revenue)

2. Identify the Paperwork Wedge

• What exact document/packet/submission is unavoidable?
• What deadlines exist? (annual, quarterly, event-triggered)
• Who gets blamed when it's wrong or late?

3. Competitor & Crowding Check

• Direct niche tools (name, pricing, market position)
• Generic substitutes (PDFs, spreadsheets, Jobber, HubSpot, email)
• Government/industry portals acting as system-of-record
• Funded players in adjacent spaces

4. Distribution Map

Must be concrete—no "we could try LinkedIn."

• List sources (actual URLs or database names)
• 1–2 plausible channel partners
• Inbound keywords indicating urgency (with search volume if available)
• Integration hooks (what software do they already use?)

If unclear after research: FAIL: Distribution unclear. Cannot proceed.

5. Founder Fit Check

• Do you have natural access to these buyers? (former industry, network, geography)
• Would you enjoy 50+ sales calls with this persona?
• Is this a market you'd still care about in 3 years?
• Any ethical/personal hesitations?

Note: This section requires founder input. Flag if not provided.

6. Buildability & Support Load

• Can core v1 be built in 2–6 weeks by a solo dev?
• If regulated/integrated workflow: add 4–8 week buffer
• If jurisdiction sprawl (state-by-state rules): add research time per region
• Any liability or compliance certification required?
• Edge case density: low / medium / high

7. Pricing for Lifestyle Outcome

Tier	ARPA	When Acceptable
Preferred	$150–$500/mo	Default target
Acceptable	$80–$150/mo	Only if churn < 3%/mo AND distribution is cheap
Avoid	< $50/mo	Only if distribution is nearly free (viral, marketplace)

8. Revenue Quality

• Contract structure: monthly / annual / multi-year
• Payment behavior: prepaid / net-30 / invoice-heavy industries
• Expansion path: per-seat / usage-based / upsell tiers

9. Market Size (Conservative)

• Count payers using best available proxy (licenses, permits, businesses)
• Calculate path to $1M ARR: (target ARPA) × (customers needed)
• Calculate path to $3M ARR: (target ARPA) × (customers needed)
• Note key assumptions

10. Defensibility Check

At least one should be present:

• Data/workflow lock-in: Does usage create switching cost?
• Relationship moat: Are buyers sticky once onboarded?
• Distribution exclusivity: Can you lock up a channel?
• Speed moat: Can you ship fast enough to stay ahead?

11. Verdict + Kill Criteria

• Pursue: Clear distribution + viable pricing + buildable scope
• Hold: Promising but missing one key signal
• Kill: No distribution OR requires > 3,000 customers OR unbuildable scope

Include:

• Must-have signals to proceed
• 7-day validation plan

---

Output

Filename: Niche_FirstPass_<slug>.md

# Niche First Pass: <Title>

## TL;DR Verdict

- **Verdict:** Pursue / Hold / Kill
- **Why:** (3 blunt bullets)

## The Wedge

(One sentence: sellable workflow + mandatory artifact + outcome)

## Customer Profile

| Role | Description |
|------|-------------|
| Paying customer | |
| Daily user | |
| Trigger moment | |

## Workflow Today (As-Is)

1. 
2. 
3. 

## Pain / Money Leak

- **Time waste:**
- **Errors/rejects:**
- **Compliance risk:**
- **Revenue leak:**

## Existing Solutions

### Direct Niche Tools
| Tool | Pricing | Notes |
|------|---------|-------|
| | | |

### Substitutes
- 

## Distribution (Must Be Specific)

- **List source:** (actual URL/database)
- **Channel candidate:**
- **Inbound keywords:** (with volume if known)
- **Integration hook:**
- **Distribution risk:**

## Founder Fit

- [ ] Natural access to buyers
- [ ] Would enjoy 50+ sales calls with this persona
- [ ] Would care about this market in 3 years
- [ ] No ethical/personal hesitations

*Fit score: Strong / Moderate / Weak / Unknown*

## Buildability

| Factor | Assessment |
|--------|------------|
| Core v1 timeline | 2–6 weeks / 6–12 weeks / 12+ weeks |
| Regulatory buffer needed | Yes / No |
| Jurisdiction sprawl | None / Moderate / Severe |
| Edge case density | Low / Medium / High |
| Support load estimate | < 5 hrs/wk / 5–15 hrs/wk / 15+ hrs/wk |

### MVP Scope

**Must-have:**
- 

**Nice-to-have:**
- 

**Explicit non-goals:**
- 

## Pricing

- **Recommended tiers:**
- **Expected ARPA:**
- **Why it's fair:**

## Revenue Quality

- **Contract structure:**
- **Payment behavior:**
- **Expansion path:**

## Market Size (Conservative)

- **Payers in target geography:**
- **Total US payers:**
- **Path to $1M ARR:** X customers × $Y ARPA
- **Path to $3M ARR:** X customers × $Y ARPA
- **Key assumption:**

## Defensibility

| Moat Type | Present? | Notes |
|-----------|----------|-------|
| Data/workflow lock-in | | |
| Relationship moat | | |
| Distribution exclusivity | | |
| Speed moat | | |

## Biggest Entry Risks

1. 
2. 
3. 

## Kill Criteria

- If we don't hear X in 10 calls → kill
- If pricing won't clear $Y → kill
- If compliance/portal makes it redundant → kill

## 7-Day Validation Plan

| Day | Activity | Success Signal |
|-----|----------|----------------|
| 1 | | |
| 2–3 | | |
| 4–5 | | |
| 6–7 | | |