Diffusion release tracking

Skill kinhluan/skills/.agent-skills/diffusion-release-tracking

🚀 Professional Multi-Agent Skills

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Track where a feature sits on Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations bell curve and produce a Go/No-Go release recommendation. Use this skill when deciding whether to expand a feature rollout, evaluating adoption signals, or planning phased release milestones.

SKILL.md

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Diffusion Release Tracking

Track adoption position on Rogers' bell curve. Decide when to expand each Release phase.

The 4 Release Gates

[Ship] → [Innovator Gate] → [Early Adopter Gate] → [Chasm Gate] → [Majority Gate]
           ~2.5%               ~16%                   16→50%          50→100%
         flag on / internal    opt-in beta             beachhead        scale

Agent flow:

Identify which gate the feature is currently at — ask user or infer from rollout %
Collect signals for that gate only — do not ask about other gates
Assess each signal against threshold
Produce diagnosis + verdict + markdown report + next gate criteria

Gate 1: Innovator Gate

From: Ship (dark launch / internal flag on) To: Opt-in beta / first external users (~2.5%) Question: Is the feature stable and does it complete the core job?

Signal	Type	Go Threshold
P0/P1 bug count	Quant	0 P0, ≤2 P1
Core job completion rate	Quant	≥70% of attempts succeed end-to-end
Internal team feedback	Qual	"Usable, no blockers" from dogfood users
Dark launch error rate	Quant	≤1% server errors on feature path

Gate 2: Early Adopter Gate

From: Opt-in beta To: 5–20% phased rollout Question: Is there retention signal and do users advocate for the feature?

Signal	Type	Go Threshold
Feature activation rate	Quant	≥30% of exposed users trigger the feature at least once
Day-7 retention	Quant	≥25% of activators return and use the feature again by day 7
"Aha moment" confirmed	Qual	≥5 user interviews confirm the core value moment
Organic advocate signal	Qual	≥1 user shares, recommends, or references the feature unprompted

Gate 3: Chasm Gate ← Most Critical

From: 20% rollout To: 50% rollout Question: Is the whole product ready for pragmatic, risk-averse users?

The Chasm (Moore) is where most products die. Early Adopters tolerate rough edges; Early Majority demands a complete solution — docs, support, onboarding, proof.

Signal	Type	Go Threshold
Retention curve shape	Quant	Curve flattening after week 3, not still declining
NPS or CSAT	Quant	NPS ≥20 or CSAT ≥4/5
Whole product gaps	Qual	Docs, onboarding, and support sufficient for a non-technical user
Beachhead vertical	Qual	1 niche segment dominated completely before expanding to adjacent segments
Reference story	Qual	≥1 customer case study with real ROI numbers, not just quotes

Gate 4: Majority Gate

From: 50% rollout To: 100% rollout Question: Are unit economics and infrastructure ready for full scale?

Signal	Type	Go Threshold
Monthly churn	Quant	≤5% for B2B, ≤10% for consumer
Support ticket volume	Quant	Resolvable with current team without backlog growth
Scalability headroom	Quant	Infrastructure handles 3× current peak load
Pricing/standards fit	Qual	Late Majority objections (price, compliance, standards) addressed

Output Format

After collecting signals, produce this report:

## Rogers Diffusion Report — [Feature Name]
**Date:** YYYY-MM-DD
**Current Gate:** [Gate Name]
**Rollout:** X% of users

### Signal Assessment
| Signal | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| [signal name] | ✅/⚠️/❌ | [threshold vs actual value or observation] |

### Diagnosis
[2–4 sentences: current position on bell curve, which criteria are met or missing, primary risk to expansion.]

### Recommendation
**[✅ GO / ⚠️ CONDITIONAL GO / ❌ NO-GO]** — [one-sentence action].
[If not full GO: what to fix before next gate.]

### Next Gate Criteria
- [ ] [criterion 1]
- [ ] [criterion 2]

Verdict levels:

✅ GO — All gate criteria met. Expand rollout to next phase.
⚠️ CONDITIONAL GO — Majority met. Expand cautiously (hold at current %) while fixing gaps.
❌ NO-GO — Critical criteria missing. Do not expand rollout. Address gaps first.

Threshold Calibration Notes

Default thresholds are reasonable baselines. Agent should flag when context warrants adjustment:

B2B enterprise: Day-7 retention threshold may be lower (usage is weekly/monthly by nature)
Internal tooling: Advocate signal may be irrelevant; focus on job completion and error rate
Consumer viral product: Organic advocate signal is more critical, weight it higher
Regulated industry: Whole product gap check must include compliance/security sign-off

Integration with Ship≠Release Workflow

This skill operationalizes the Agile Delivery principle from business-product-leadership:

Ship = code behind feature flag (before Innovator Gate)
Release = advancing through gates by turning flags on for wider cohorts

For strategic context on JTBD, market positioning, and The Chasm theory, use the business-product-leadership skill.

DORA Prerequisite: Deployment Frequency

Before attempting phased gate advancement, assess DORA Deployment Frequency tier (use dora-core skill):

DORA DF Tier	Gate Strategy
Elite (on-demand)	Full gate strategy applies — iterate rapidly per gate
High (daily–weekly)	Gate iteration feasible — allow longer validation windows
Medium (weekly–monthly)	Plan gate windows months in advance; reduce gate count
Low (monthly+)	Fix DF first. Cannot run meaningful phased rollouts at this cadence

Low Deployment Frequency is a delivery bottleneck that makes Rogers gate validation impossible — by the time you gather signal, the market window has shifted.