023 assumption analysis

Skill jabrena/plinth/skills/023-assumption-analysis

Use when a framed and root-caused problem needs its assumptions made explicit before design or planning begins — explicit Assumptions, Unknowns, and a Validation plan. This should trigger when an issue's Assumption Analysis point of view needs evaluation, or when a maintainer directly asks to surface hidden assumptions and unknowns before committing to an approach. Part of Plinth ToolkitFrom its SKILL.md

Install

npx -y skills add jabrena/plinth --skill 023-assumption-analysis

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SKILL.md

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Assumption Analysis

Guide production of explicit Assumptions, a list of Unknowns, and a Validation plan for a problem under exploration. This is an interactive SKILL.

What is covered in this Skill?

Surfacing assumptions implicit in the problem frame and root-cause findings
Distinguishing an assumption (believed true, not yet verified) from an unknown (not yet known either way)
Ranking assumptions and unknowns by impact and confidence
Defining a validation plan that names how and when each risky assumption or unknown will be checked
Feeding assumption and unknown findings into 024-context-mapping and the remaining Functional Specification lenses

Constraints

Make assumptions and unknowns explicit before they become undiscussed risk. When this technique is orchestrated by another workflow, the orchestrator owns clarifying-question sequencing; when applied standalone, ask directly.

MUST read references/023-assumption-analysis.md before applying Assumption Analysis guidance
MUST state each assumption as a falsifiable claim believed true but not yet verified
MUST distinguish assumptions (believed true) from unknowns (not yet known either way)
MUST rank assumptions and unknowns by impact if wrong and by current confidence
MUST define a validation plan naming how and when each high-impact, low-confidence assumption or unknown will be checked
MUST NOT invent an assumption, unknown, or validation step when the available content is vague or ambiguous; flag the gap for a clarifying question instead

When to use this skill

Surface the assumptions behind this problem
List the unknowns for this issue
Build a validation plan for these assumptions
Apply assumption analysis before design begins
Draft the Assumption Analysis section of a Functional Specification

Workflow

Read the Reference

Read references/023-assumption-analysis.md, then review the problem frame and root-cause findings for implicit beliefs.

Surface Explicit Assumptions

State each assumption as a falsifiable claim believed true but not yet verified.

List Unknowns

List facts that are not yet known either way, distinct from assumptions.

Rank by Impact and Confidence

Rank assumptions and unknowns by impact if wrong and by current confidence, prioritizing high-impact, low-confidence items.

Define the Validation Plan

Name how and when each high-priority assumption or unknown will be validated.

Report the Assumption Analysis

Report the Assumptions, Unknowns, and Validation plan, and flag any item left open pending a clarifying answer.

Reference

For detailed guidance, examples, and constraints, see references/023-assumption-analysis.md.