Research market

Market Research — Orchestrator

Strategy track entry point. Maps market landscape, competitors, identifies gaps and opportunities. Capability metadata (route triggers, prerequisites, load map, artifact contract) lives in routing.yaml. Agent table + 3 routes + Research Checkpoint: references/agent-manifest.md. Methodology + four failure modes + when NOT to use: references/playbook.md.

Core question: What does the market look like, and where are the gaps worth filling?

Critical Gates — load first

1. Sources >18 months old → flag as historical, not current. Don't present stale data as current intelligence.
2. TAM/SAM/SOM without methodology is a guess. Every estimate needs method (top-down/bottom-up), source, and confidence.
3. Adjacent competitors are the highest threat — never skip the adjacent check. Biggest threats come from adjacent categories expanding in.
4. Never rely on training data for positions or pricing — use WebSearch. Competitor data changes constantly; verify live.

Before Starting

Apply references/_shared/before-starting-check.md. Then:

• Mode resolution (references/_shared/mode-resolver.md). budget: deep. --fast forces Route A (Quick Validation) — skip sizing + opportunity agents; consumer-landscape optional; critic gate collapses to single pass. --deep forces Route C. Cold Start STILL fires under --fast when context is missing — --fast does NOT authorize scoping a market with no specified category (Critical Gates 1-4 floor).
• references/_shared/execution-policy.md — session execution profile (single-vs-multi)
• Read .forsvn/index/manifest.json — find any prior id:market-research at docs/forsvn/canonical/research/MARKET.md (re-run signal); check id:product-context resolves (recommend research-icp first if missing).
• Run Pre-Dispatch per references/procedures/pre-dispatch.md — Warm Start with product+B2B/B2C pre-fill OR Cold Start 5-question prompt, Write-back map (Q1 → product.md; Q2+Q4 → business.md; Q3 → goals.md; Q5 → audience.md — all 5 Q's persist), route selection (A/B/C).

Quality Gate — 10 operator bullets (11 in critic-agent)

Critic agent verifies before delivery. 11th item (Feature matrix Stakes/Diff classification) is critic-agent-only. Full canonical rubric in agents/critic-agent.md.

• Every claim cites source (URL or publication name)
• Competitor table: ≥3 competitors with quantified size/growth signals
• Feature comparison: ≥5 capabilities relevant to category
• Gaps & Opportunities: ≥3 distinct opportunities with evidence
• Each Top 3 opportunity: evidence source, window, risk, and "why now"
• Market trends: ≥2 quantified data points (%, $, growth rates)
• No source >18 months presented as current without historical flag
• Confidence level stated with justification
• Adjacent competitors section populated — never skipped
• TAM/SAM/SOM (if present) shows methodology, not just numbers

Artifact Contract

• Path: docs/forsvn/canonical/research/MARKET.md (canonical singleton; id: market-research).
• Lifecycle: canonical — edited in place by humans; on re-run overwrite docs/forsvn/canonical/research/MARKET.md in place and increment the integer version: (prior versions live in git history; never create a .v[N].md sibling under canonical/).
• Frontmatter: skill, version (integer artifact version), date (ISO-8601), status, stack (=research), review_surface (=html — the forsvn-preview review module renders the themed preview while decision_state: pending), id (=market-research), type (=canonical), keywords, decision_state. See references/_shared/artifact-contract-template.md for the v3 schema.
• Required body sections (in order — cross-stack contract): Scope · Market Trends · Market Sizing (if applicable per route) · User & Consumer Landscape · Competitive Landscape (6 sub-sections: Overview / Adjacent / Feature Comparison / Pricing / Positioning Map / Community & Mindshare) · Gaps & Opportunities (Gap Analysis 4-dimension + Top 3 Opportunities) · Limitations & Confidence · Next Step. Full template (~90 lines) + Scope Calibration tables: references/format-conventions.md.
• Optional sections: Known Issues (when critic FAILed twice and artifact ships with [REVIEWER NOTE] annotations).
• Side effects (mandatory on PASS / done_with_concerns):
  • Write docs/forsvn/canonical/research/MARKET.md.
  • Experience write-back per Write-back map: Q1 → experience/product.md; Q2+Q4 → experience/business.md; Q3 → experience/goals.md; Q5 → experience/audience.md. All 5 Q's persist (unlike research-icp's Q5 routing-only).
  • On re-run, overwrite docs/forsvn/canonical/research/MARKET.md in place and increment the integer version: (no .v[N].md sibling).
• Consumed by: prioritize (Top 3 Opportunities feed Initiative evidence + Difficulty informs Effort scoring) · research-icp (Underserved Segments inform persona scoping) · architect-system (Competitive Landscape informs build-vs-buy) · plan-campaign (Positioning Map + Top 3 anchor messaging; Community & Mindshare informs channel mix) · fundraising deck preparation (Market Sizing + Competitive Landscape Overview + Top 3 — the "market" slide source).
• Cross-stack OUTPUT contract: Artifact Template structure + 8 required sections + 6 Competitive Landscape sub-sections + Top 3 Opportunities 6-column schema + Adjacent Competitors 5-column schema + Gap Analysis 4-dimension format + Next Step block are load-bearing — schema changes require atomic update of 5+ consumers.

Chain Position

Previous: none (Strategy track entry point) | Next: prioritize, research-icp (both downstream).

Foundational role: research-market and diagnose are the two entry points of the Strategy track (parallel-with each other). research-market creates the canonical market record that prioritize, architect-system, plan-campaign, and fundraising deck preparation consume.

Re-run triggers: new market entry, major competitor launch/pivot, fundraising, quarterly for fast-moving categories.

Skill deference: MARKET landscape and gaps → this skill. WHO the customer is, what they feel → research-icp. A METRIC underperforming → diagnose. Know the problem, need SOLUTIONS → prioritize.

Routing

Three routes (A / B / C) — chosen at Pre-Dispatch (Q3 why-now classification or auto-inferred). Full route graphs + Research Checkpoint mechanics + Critic FAIL routing: references/agent-manifest.md. Spawn mechanics + Single-Agent Fallback + post-write side effects + chain position: references/procedures/dispatch-mechanics.md.

Anti-Patterns

Read references/anti-patterns.md before output ships — 11 patterns (8 from original + 3 cross-cutting: cross-stack contract drift, experience write-back skipped/partial, scope-blind critic evaluation). Per-pattern detection + bad/good examples + agent ownership.

Durable Rules (protected)

<!-- SLOW_UPDATE_START --> <!-- No pinned rules yet. Populate via the slow-update workflow (see references/slow-update-fence.md). Each pinned rule must (a) be procedural not instance-specific, (b) be earned from a regression or critic-flagged failure, (c) cite the artifact / decision record that justified pinning. --> <!-- SLOW_UPDATE_END -->

Completion Status

• DONE — all 4 Layer 1 streams complete (trends, sizing, competitor, consumer-landscape), opportunities ranked, critic PASS.
• DONE_WITH_CONCERNS — partial coverage (sizing data thin or estimated); opportunities listed with confidence flags.
• BLOCKED — category undefined or too broad to size; needs user-supplied scope narrowing before any agent can dispatch.
• NEEDS_CONTEXT — research/product-context.md absent and product not described; recommend research-icp first or interview the user.