Diagnose

Problem Analysis — Orchestrator

Strategy — Step 1 of 4. Defines the business problem, builds falsifiable reasoning via testable hypotheses, and identifies root-cause with evidence-backed tests.

Core Question: "What's actually causing this, and what does the evidence prove?"

Why this skill exists, Watanabe MECE philosophy, 3-tree-type calibration, always-cold-start rationale, 10-gate quality summary, Inconclusive-is-valid philosophy, external-factor 6-factor rationale, when NOT to use: references/playbook.md [PLAYBOOK].

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Critical Gates — Read First

1. Problem statement MUST be: "[Metric] is [current] instead of [target]." No vague business problems. If the user says "things aren't going well," interview for the specific metric, current value, and target value before dispatching any agent.
2. Do NOT skip external factors — 30%+ of problems have external root-causes. The external-check-agent runs in Layer 1 alongside the tree builder. Skipping it leads to treating a symptom when the cause is environmental.
3. If/Then/Because format required — hypotheses without "because" are unfalsifiable. The "because" clause is the reasoning mechanism. Without it, a rejected hypothesis teaches nothing and the tests prove nothing.
4. Do NOT confirm hypotheses without evidence — "seems likely" is not Confirmed. Every verdict must cite a specific data point that matches or contradicts the "then" clause. Inconclusive is a valid verdict. When multiple causes changed in the same window, a matching timeline is correlation, not confirmation: a Confirmed verdict must cite evidence that DISCRIMINATES it from the co-timed alternatives (an A/B null, a per-capita/per-segment normalization, a same-segment-flat reading), and must rule out a composition/mix-shift artifact (every segment flat but the blended metric moved → the cause is the mix, not any within-segment factor). No discriminating evidence → Inconclusive. Never distribute the gap across un-discriminated candidates or invent a cause to reach ~100%.

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Before Starting

Apply the before-starting-check [PLAYBOOK], then run the diagnose-specific pre-flight per references/procedures/before-starting.md [PROCEDURE] — mode resolution (Cold Start STILL fires under --fast), canonical-path check, prior-run staleness signal, then Pre-Dispatch entry.

Pre-Dispatch detail (always-cold-start contract, 4-question Cold Start prompt, read order, Write-back map Q1-Q4 → goals.md verbatim): references/procedures/pre-dispatch.md [PROCEDURE].

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Artifact Contract

• Path: docs/forsvn/canonical/research/DIAGNOSE.md (canonical singleton — the current diagnosis of record; re-run overwrites in place and bumps version. Prior runs live in git history, NOT as concurrent files.)
• Lifecycle: canonical; type: canonical; review_surface: none; decision_state: not_required (diagnose stays un-gated)
• Frontmatter: skill, version (integer, increment on re-run), date, status, stack: research, review_surface: none, id: diagnose, type: canonical, keywords: [diagnose, root-cause, hypothesis-tree, metric-decline, if-then-because]. Schema in references/_shared/artifact-contract-template.md.
• Required body sections (cross-stack contract — load-bearing): Phase 1 (Problem Statement, Logic Tree, MECE Check, External Factor Scan 6-row table) · Phase 2 (Hypotheses with If/Then/Because + 6 sub-fields each) · Phase 3 (Verdict Table + Root Cause Statement) · Next Step block. Full schemas + Logic Tree code-fence + Verdict Table columns in references/format-conventions.md [PROCEDURE]. Optional: Known Issues · Change Log.
• Side effects (mandatory on PASS / done_with_concerns): Goals write-back (Q1 Metric, Q2 Current, Q3 Target append to experience/goals.md; Q4 Tried NOT persisted — lives in the canonical record only). Re-run overwrites DIAGNOSE.md in place and bumps version; no .v[N].md siblings. Mechanics: references/procedures/dispatch-mechanics.md.
• Consumed by: prioritize (Root Cause feeds Initiative "because" clauses — recommended input, not a hard gate); plan-funnel (Root Cause baselines feed Target Table); plan-campaign (Root Cause + Verdicts filter channel-level execution); future diagnose re-runs (prior tree as context).
• Cross-stack contract: Phase 1/2/3 schemas + Verdict Table columns + Next Step block + Logic Tree code-fence — schema changes require atomic consumer update (see anti-patterns.md "Cross-stack contract drift").

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Agent Manifest

#	Agent	Layer	Focus
1	tree-builder-agent	L1 (parallel)	MECE logic tree (Math/Issue/Yes-No) — 2-3 levels, ≥3 leaves
2	external-check-agent	L1 (parallel)	6-factor external scan via WebSearch (competitor, market/seasonal, platform, regulatory, technology, macro)
3	hypothesis-agent	L2 (sequential)	If/Then/Because formation; ranked by testability (speed × gap explained)
4	data-mapper-agent	L2 (sequential)	Data requirement table (deciding data, source, owner, confirming, rejecting)
5	verdict-agent	L2 (sequential)	Evidence evaluation + root cause statement with gap %s summing to ~100%; 3-strikes escalation
6	critic-agent	L2 (final)	10-point quality gate (rubric + failure routing in agents/critic-agent.md). Max 2 rewrite cycles

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Routing + Dispatch

Two routes; chosen after Cold Start (the 4 questions always fire) and echoed in confirmation:

Route	When	Graph
B — Full Analysis (default)	Non-trivial metric decline or strategic problem	L1 parallel (tree-builder + external-check) → merge → L2 sequential (hypothesis → data-mapper → [Data Gathering Pause] → verdict → critic)
A — Quick Diagnosis	User provides data inline AND problem clearly internal AND user CONFIRMS skipping external scan (preserves Critical Gate 2)	hypothesis → data-mapper → Data Gathering Pause → verdict → critic

Data Gathering Pause is NON-SKIPPABLE in both routes. Verdicts without evidence are speculation; critic Gate 9 will FAIL.

Mechanics (Route Selection, Layer 1/2 spawn, merge, Pause handling, critic FAIL routing, Inconclusive Handling, 3-strikes escalation, post-write side effects, chain position, skill deference): references/procedures/dispatch-mechanics.md [PROCEDURE]. Load at Layer 1 dispatch entry.

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Anti-Patterns

references/anti-patterns.md [ANTI-PATTERN] — 13-pattern catalog (covered by critic gates 1-10 in agents/critic-agent.md plus 3 Additional Checks for correlation/3-strikes/external-factors) + 2 cross-cutting failures (cross-stack contract drift + goals write-back skipped). Re-read before any output ships.

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Durable Rules (protected)

<!-- SLOW_UPDATE_START --> <!-- No pinned rules yet. Populate via the slow-update workflow (see references/slow-update-fence.md). Each pinned rule must (a) be procedural not instance-specific, (b) be earned from a regression or critic-flagged failure, (c) cite the artifact / decision record that justified pinning. --> <!-- SLOW_UPDATE_END -->

Completion Status

Every run ends with explicit status:

• DONE — root causes traced via MECE tree, hypotheses validated against data, verdict written, critic PASS
• DONE_WITH_CONCERNS — root causes identified but data validation thin (small sample, estimated baselines, or inconclusive evidence); verdict notes confidence and what would strengthen it
• BLOCKED — metric/baseline cannot be obtained from any source (data unavailable, access denied, or measurement undefined); analysis would be speculation
• NEEDS_CONTEXT — problem statement missing the metric+current+target triad required for dispatch; ask the user before invoking agents

Next Step

After verdict + root cause ship: hand to prioritize for initiative selection (Root Cause Statement is a recommended input, not a hard gate). For metric-tracking initiatives, also feed plan-funnel baselines. Re-run diagnose when the metric shifts significantly or new data surfaces (operator-judgment, not auto-flagged).

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References

• references/playbook.md [PLAYBOOK] — philosophy, 3-tree calibration, when NOT to use
• references/format-conventions.md [PROCEDURE] — artifact template, Phase 1/2/3 schemas, Logic Tree code-fence, Next Step block
• references/anti-patterns.md [ANTI-PATTERN] — 13 patterns + 2 cross-cutting failures
• references/procedures/{before-starting, pre-dispatch, dispatch-mechanics}.md [PROCEDURE] — pre-flight, Cold Start, routes, Pause handling
• references/_shared/{before-starting-check, mode-resolver, pre-dispatch-protocol, hypothesis-framework, artifact-contract-template}.md
• references/_shared/execution-policy.md — session execution profile (single-vs-multi)
• references/examples/diagnose-walkthrough.md [EXAMPLE] — full Route B walkthrough on signup decline (10 critic gates traced)
• references/{watanabe-framework, logic-tree-examples}.md — MECE methodology + 4 worked trees (SaaS churn, e-commerce, content ROI, B2B pipeline)
• research-skills/CLAUDE.md — stack-level conventions