Design referral

Design Referral — Orchestrator

Referral — designs a viral / referral loop as loop mechanics + K-factor and cycle-time math + CAC-bounded incentive economics + a falsifiable trigger, scored by a quantitative critic. Capability metadata: routing.yaml. Methodology, philosophy, scope: references/playbook.md [PLAYBOOK].

Core question: "What is the actual K-factor this loop produces (invites/user × conversion-per-invite), is the cycle time short enough to compound, and does the incentive cost stay under the CAC it replaces?"

Critical Gates — read first

1. Compute K, don't assert it. K = (invites sent per active user) × (conversion rate per invite). A loop without this math is a wish. Estimate each input with a labeled basis (benchmark / analog / measured); never present a guessed K as fact. K ≥ 1 = viral; 0.3–1 = a real assist that lowers blended CAC; < 0.15 with a costly incentive = kill.
2. Cycle time is half the engine. Compounding depends on K AND on how fast one cycle completes (invite → new user → new user invites). A K of 0.5 at a 3-day cycle beats a K of 0.7 at a 60-day cycle. Both must be stated.
3. The incentive must be CAC-bounded. Total incentive cost per acquired user (both sides of a double-sided reward) must be less than the paid CAC it displaces AND fit unit economics (LTV, margin). An incentive that costs more than buying the user is a loss; the economist agent FAILs it.
4. The trigger fires at a real share-worthy moment. The loop asks for the referral right after the user got value (the activation/aha moment), not on signup. A trigger with no value-realized precondition is begging, and converts near zero.
5. No fraud-blind loop, no fake scarcity, no autonomous payout. The design names the abuse vector (self-referral, fake accounts, incentive farming) and its guard. It never fabricates scarcity. It outputs a design; it never disburses a reward or moves money — payout is human-owned + out of scope.

Quality Gate — 6 dimensions

Full rubric + Pass/Fail bands: references/rubric.md [PROCEDURE]. Critic agent: agents/critic.md.

• Gate: Total ≥30/42 AND every dim ≥4/7. Below either → FAIL, route to the named agent, max 2 rewrite cycles.
• Dimensions: Loop-math soundness · Cycle-time realism · Incentive economics · Trigger placement · Mechanic falsifiability · Fraud/abuse guard.

Before Starting

Per references/_shared/before-starting-check.md. Recommended context:

Artifact	Source	Required?
research/product-context.md	research-icp	Recommended — the value moment (the share trigger) + unit economics
research/icp-research.md	research-icp	Recommended — who the user would refer + the social context
docs/forsvn/artifacts/marketing/design-lifecycle/*.md	design-lifecycle	Optional — the activation event the referral trigger fires after
.forsvn/performance/*.tsv	measure-results	Optional — measured CAC the incentive must beat

Pre-Dispatch + Mode

Run canonical Pre-Dispatch (references/_shared/pre-dispatch-protocol.md). Needed dimensions: product has retention/PMF (HARD precondition — a leaky product virally spreads churn) · the share-worthy moment (the trigger) · loop-type (one-sided / double-sided / milestone / collaborative-native) · unit economics (CAC-to-beat, LTV, margin) · incentive idea (or "recommend one"). Missing retention-evidence OR no share moment → BLOCK. Full Cold Start + Missing-Input Hard Blocks: references/procedures/pre-dispatch.md.

Mode (references/_shared/mode-resolver.md): budget: deep. --fast collapses to a single inline pass (one loop variant, K-math + economics inline, no rewrite loop). --fast does NOT skip Cold Start, Critical Gates 1-5, the retention precondition, or the no-payout gate.

Agents + Routes

4 sub-agents (loop-architect → incentive-economist + mechanic-copy → critic) across Layer 1 loop design → Layer 2 economics + mechanic → critic gate. Two routes — A (design a new loop), B (called by another skill). Full manifest + dispatch graph: references/agent-manifest.md [PROCEDURE].

Artifact Contract

• Path: docs/forsvn/artifacts/marketing/design-referral/[loop-type]-[date]-[slug].md
• Lifecycle: pipeline — re-run on incentive change, measured-K update, or unit-economics shift.
• Frontmatter + body order + the K-factor math block schema: references/format-conventions.md [PROCEDURE].
• Consumed by: measure-results (the loop's measured K + payback close the loop), plan-campaign (referral as a selected channel).

Anti-Patterns

references/anti-patterns.md [ANTI-PATTERN]. Re-read before any loop ships: asserted-K-without-math, ignoring cycle time, incentive-costs-more-than-CAC, trigger-on-signup-not-value, referral-on-a-leaky-product, fraud-blind incentive, fake scarcity, double-sided reward that breaks margin.

Durable Rules (protected)

<!-- SLOW_UPDATE_START --> <!-- No pinned rules yet. Populate via the slow-update workflow (references/slow-update-fence.md). --> <!-- SLOW_UPDATE_END -->

Completion Status

• DONE — loop mechanics + K/cycle math + incentive economics + trigger + fraud guard written, critic PASS.
• DONE_WITH_CONCERNS — loop complete but with estimated (not measured) K inputs or thin unit economics; flagged in the artifact.
• BLOCKED — product lacks retention evidence (referral would spread churn); needs a retention/PMF decision first.
• NEEDS_CONTEXT — no unit economics available to bound the incentive; recommend measure-results / product-context first.

Worked Example

End-to-end double-sided loop (B2B reporting tool, K computed from labeled inputs, 3 loop variants compared on K × cycle-time × incentive-cost, CAC-bounded reward, fraud guard, critic PASS with a cycle-0 FAIL the critic caught): references/examples/referral-walkthrough.md [EXAMPLE].

References

• references/{playbook, rubric, format-conventions, anti-patterns, agent-manifest, loop-models, incentive-economics}.md
• references/procedures/pre-dispatch.md [PROCEDURE]
• references/examples/referral-walkthrough.md [EXAMPLE]
• agents/{loop-architect, incentive-economist, mechanic-copy, critic}.md
• references/_shared/{pre-dispatch-protocol, before-starting-check, mode-resolver, marketing-foundations}.md