Place bet

Skill: place-bet

Commit the team to a chosen direction — producing a structured bet.md the next step (map-capabilities) can reason against.

When to invoke

Run after any validation work (de-risk-intent, validation-notes.md) and before map-capabilities. Confirm options exist in some form; if not, this skill offers diverge-solutions first.

Procedure

1. Intake. Resolve output_dir via the three-tier config procedure: check repo-scope agentbundle-layout.toml [product] → user-scope → two-branch elicitation (docs/product/ is the designed default, not a constant). Reuse the active [shaping_queue] item slug; when invoked standalone, ask which slug to write to. Never mint a new slug. When multiple candidate slug paths exist under <output_dir>/shaping/, surface them and ask before proceeding. Look for <output_dir>/shaping/<slug>/. Check for any *solution* or *options* file. Check for validation-notes.md. The solutions file lookup uses a glob heuristic until diverge-solutions ships and canonicalises the filename — update both skills in the same PR when that happens.

2. Options intake. If a solutions artifact is found: surface its options as the structured set; ask the PE to select or override. If absent: offer to run diverge-solutions first — name the impact: "Without structured comparable options, the rationale and risks-accepted in the betting table are less defensible." If the PE declines, continue with free-form: ask for options considered and the chosen direction. Accept any prior options source — diverge-solutions, explore-options, external research, or informal notes. Check validation: if no validation-notes.md, no de-risk-intent output, and no stated validation is present in any form — name the gap and ask whether to proceed or validate first; an unvalidated bet is an accepted risk, not a silent default. Otherwise when only validation-notes.md is absent — continue without it; the file is never required.

3. Populate the betting table. With the PE, fill:

• option: chosen direction name/summary
• option-source: artifact path, or free-form for informal notes
• confidence: high / medium / low
• appetite: time budget; name a number rather than "open" where possible
• rationale: why this option over the alternatives
• risks-accepted: explicit list; fold in any validation-notes findings
• assumptions: what must be true for the bet to pay off
• kill-condition (optional): the result that would reverse this decision; fold in from validation-notes.md when found, else leave blank
• next-step: pointer to map-capabilities (auto-filled)

4. Emit bet.md. Realpath-expand and symlink-resolve the write path; reject .. escapes and any symlink chain that exits the intended root; surface the resolved absolute path before writing. Write to <output_dir>/shaping/<slug>/bet.md. Re-running overwrites the prior file — this is the intended revision flow. Frontmatter: type: bet, slug, date, option, option-source, confidence, appetite. Body sections: Option chosen, Rationale, Risks accepted, Assumptions, Kill condition (optional), Next step (pointer to map-capabilities), Suggested workspace.toml transition.

5. Suggest workspace.toml transition. Print the TOML snippet including the slug; direct the PE to capture-work or manual edit. Do not write to workspace.toml.

Anti-patterns to refuse

Never write to workspace.toml. Never write to a literal hardcoded path. Never run diverge-solutions inline — offer it; let the PE decide. Never block when no options artifact exists — offer and degrade gracefully. Never produce a brief.