Analyze code churn

Analyze Churn

Analyze code churn and thrash patterns in a git repository. Produces a structured report with hotspot detection, rework vs. refactor classification, temporal coupling analysis, and severity-rated findings with investigation recommendations.

Input

$ARGUMENTS = analysis scope — time window (e.g., "30 days", "last sprint", "since v2.1"), optional path filter (e.g., "src/api/"), and optional focus area (e.g., "why is auth churning", "sprint-over-sprint comparison").

Process

1. Parse Scope

Extract from $ARGUMENTS:

• Time window: Default to 30 days if not specified. Accept natural language ("last sprint", "since January") and convert to --since/--after git flags.
• Path filter: If a directory or file pattern is specified, scope all git commands to that path. Default to the entire repository.
• Focus area: If a specific question is asked, tailor the analysis toward answering it. Otherwise, produce the full report.

If $ARGUMENTS is empty, use a 30-day window across the entire repository.

2. Establish Baseline

Run the baseline period (the window immediately preceding the analysis window) to enable trend comparison. For a 30-day analysis window, the baseline is the prior 30 days.

Gross churn (analysis window):

git log --numstat --format="" --no-merges --since="<start>" -- <path> \
  | awk '{a+=$1; d+=$2} END {print "added:", a, "deleted:", d, "gross:", a+d}'

Gross churn (baseline window):

git log --numstat --format="" --no-merges --since="<baseline_start>" --until="<start>" -- <path> \
  | awk '{a+=$1; d+=$2} END {print "added:", a, "deleted:", d, "gross:", a+d}'

Commit counts (both windows):

git rev-list --count --no-merges --since="<start>" HEAD -- <path>
git rev-list --count --no-merges --since="<baseline_start>" --until="<start>" HEAD -- <path>

Record the baseline metrics for trend comparison in Step 7.

3. Detect Hotspots

Identify files with the highest change frequency, weighted by size as a complexity proxy.

Change frequency (top 20):

git log --format=format: --name-only --no-merges --since="<start>" -- <path> \
  | grep -v '^$' | sort | uniq -c | sort -rn | head -20

Lines-based churn per file (top 20):

git log --no-merges --numstat --format="" --since="<start>" -- <path> \
  | awk '{files[$3]+=$1+$2; added[$3]+=$1; deleted[$3]+=$2} END {for(f in files) printf "%d\t+%d\t-%d\t%s\n", files[f], added[f], deleted[f], f}' \
  | sort -rn | head -20

Exclusions: Filter out auto-generated files from results before ranking:

• Lock files (package-lock.json, yarn.lock, Gemfile.lock, poetry.lock, go.sum, Cargo.lock, pnpm-lock.yaml)
• Build artifacts and compiled output
• Formatting-only changes (if detectable from commit messages)
• Files matching patterns in .gitignore that are tracked

Rank files by a composite hotspot score: change_frequency × log2(max(lines_churned, 1)). Use base-2 logarithm; floor lines_churned to 1 to avoid undefined values when a file has only renames or mode changes. The top 5 files are the hotspot list.

4. Detect Thrashing

Identify files modified with unusual frequency in short windows — a signal of rework, unclear requirements, or architectural coupling.

Files modified 5+ times in the last 7 days:

git log --format=format: --name-only --no-merges --since="7 days ago" -- <path> \
  | grep -v '^$' | sort | uniq -c | sort -rn | awk '$1 >= 5 {print}'

Files modified 3+ times in the last 3 days (tighter window for acute thrash):

git log --format=format: --name-only --no-merges --since="3 days ago" -- <path> \
  | grep -v '^$' | sort | uniq -c | sort -rn | awk '$1 >= 3 {print}'

Files appearing in both lists are thrashing candidates — flag for investigation.

5. Classify Changes (Rework vs. Refactor)

Use a 21-day age threshold to classify changes within the analysis window:

• New Code: Files created within the analysis window
• Refactor: Changes to code that was last modified more than 21 days ago (healthy maintenance)
• Rework: Changes to code that was last modified fewer than 21 days ago (potential waste signal — the same code was touched again before it had time to stabilize)

Rework detection procedure:

For each file in the hotspot list (Step 3), retrieve its commit dates within the analysis window:

# For each hotspot file, list commit dates within the analysis window
git log --format="%H %ad" --date=short --no-merges --since="<start>" -- <file> \
  | head -20

Walk the date-sorted output and compare consecutive commits to the same file. If two commits to the same file are fewer than 21 days apart, classify the later commit as rework. A file with only one commit in the window, or with all commits spaced more than 21 days apart, contributes zero rework commits.

Calculate:

• Rework rate = rework commits / total commits (across the analysis window)
• Compare against the baseline window's rework rate

Revert detection:

git log --oneline --grep="[Rr]evert" --no-merges --since="<start>" -- <path>

Reverts are the strongest rework signal. List each with the original commit it reversed.

6. Detect Temporal Coupling

Identify files that change together — a signal of hidden dependencies or architectural coupling when the files are in different modules.

git log --format='---' --name-only --no-merges --since="<start>" -- <path> \
  | awk '/^---$/{if(n>0){for(i=0;i<n;i++)for(j=i+1;j<n;j++)print files[i]"\t"files[j]}; n=0;next} /^$/{next} {files[n++]=$0}' \
  | sort | uniq -c | sort -rn | head -30

Coupling threshold: Flag pairs that appear together in >30% of either file's total commits during the window. Coupling between files in the same module is expected; coupling between files in different modules or layers is a signal.

For each flagged pair, note:

• Co-change count and percentage
• Whether the files are in the same module/directory
• Whether the coupling is expected (e.g., a component and its test file) or unexpected (e.g., a controller and an unrelated model)

7. Assess Severity

Apply severity ratings based on deviation from the project's own baseline, not industry averages.

Severity	Pattern	Action
Normal	Within baseline ±5%, early-sprint churn, expected refactoring	Monitor; note baseline for future comparison
Watch	5–10% above baseline, 1–2 hotspot files, mid-sprint	Mention in standup; check requirements clarity for affected files
Concerning	>10% above baseline for current + prior window, 3+ hotspot files	1:1s with contributors to the hotspot files; review affected PRs; assess deadline risk
Critical	Multiple reverts, same files thrashing 5+x/week, rework rate >2× baseline	Escalate delivery risk; recommend architecture review of affected area; consider scope reduction

Context modifiers (adjust severity interpretation):

• Early-stage/MVP: Higher churn is normal (25–40%). Widen the Normal band.
• Major refactoring in progress: Elevated churn is expected. Note it but don't alarm.
• Near a deadline: Even moderate churn elevation is more concerning.
• New team members: Expect temporary rework elevation in their areas.

Always state the modifier when applying it, so the reader understands why severity was adjusted.

8. Identify Root Cause Signals

For each finding rated Watch or above, map to likely root cause patterns:

Signal	Likely Root Cause	Investigation Path
Churn concentrated in 1–2 files	Architectural coupling or unclear ownership	Review temporal coupling data; check if file should be split
Churn scattered across codebase	Systemic issue (weak tests, unclear requirements)	Review test coverage trends; check story quality for affected work
Churn correlated with specific contributors	Knowledge gap or onboarding ramp	Review PR comments for guidance patterns; suggest pairing
Churn spiking near sprint end	Process problem (late requirements, scope creep)	Review story completion dates vs. sprint timeline
Revert patterns	Fundamental misalignment between intent and execution	Review the original PR and what it aimed to do vs. what happened
Unexpected temporal coupling	Hidden architectural dependency	Review whether the coupled files share a concept that should be extracted

Critical constraint: Never attribute churn to individual developer performance. Churn is a system signal. Frame contributor patterns as "areas where additional support may help" — not as individual performance issues.

9. Produce Report

Format the output using the template below.

Output

# Code Churn Analysis

**Repository**: [repo name]
**Analysis window**: [start] – [end] ([N] days)
**Baseline window**: [start] – [end] ([N] days)
**Path scope**: [path or "entire repository"]
**Generated**: [date]

## Executive Summary

[2–3 sentences: overall severity, key finding, primary recommendation. Lead
with the most important signal.]

## Trend Comparison

| Metric | Baseline | Current | Change |
|--------| --- | --- | --- |
| Gross churn (lines) | [N] | [N] | [+/-N%] |
| Commits | [N] | [N] | [+/-N%] |
| Rework rate | [N%] | [N%] | [+/-N pp] |
| Reverts | [N] | [N] | [+/-N] |

**Trend assessment**: [Normal / Elevated / Concerning — with brief rationale]

## Hotspot Files

| Rank | File | Changes | Lines Churned | Hotspot Score | Severity |
|------|------|---------|---------------|---------------|----------|
| 1 | [path] | [N] | [N] | [score] | [severity] |
| 2 | [path] | [N] | [N] | [score] | [severity] |

[Up to 10 files. Only include files with Watch severity or above, plus the
top 5 regardless of severity for context.]

## Thrashing Files

[Files modified 5+ times in 7 days or 3+ times in 3 days.]

| File | Changes (7d) | Changes (3d) | Status |
|------|-------------|-------------|--------|
| [path] | [N] | [N] | [Thrashing / Elevated / —] |

[If no thrashing detected, state "No thrashing patterns detected in the
analysis window." and omit the table.]

## Rework Classification

**Rework rate**: [N%] (baseline: [N%])

| Classification | Commits | Percentage |
|----------------|---------|------------|
| New code | [N] | [N%] |
| Refactor (>21 days) | [N] | [N%] |
| Rework (<21 days) | [N] | [N%] |

**Reverts**: [N] in analysis window

[List each revert with the original commit reference if any were found.]

## Temporal Coupling

[Pairs of files that change together above the 30% threshold.]

| File A | File B | Co-changes | Coupling % | Expected? |
|--------|--------|-----------|------------|-----------|
| [path] | [path] | [N] | [N%] | [Yes/No — brief reason] |

[If no unexpected coupling detected, state "No unexpected temporal coupling
detected." and omit the table.]

## Findings

[Ordered by severity, highest first. Each finding follows this structure:]

### [Finding title] — [Severity]

**Signal**: [What was detected — specific files, metrics, patterns]

**Likely root cause**: [From the root cause mapping table]

**Investigation path**: [Specific next steps to confirm or dismiss]

**Context modifiers**: [Any factors that adjust severity interpretation]

[Repeat for each finding rated Watch or above.]

## Recommendations

[Prioritized list of suggested actions. Each traces to a specific finding.]

1. **[Action]** — [Which finding this addresses]. [Specific next step.]
2. **[Action]** — [Finding reference]. [Next step.]

[Maximum 5 recommendations. If everything is Normal, state "No action items.
Current churn patterns are within baseline expectations." and omit the list.]

After the report, include a brief "Methodology Notes" section (outside the report body) explaining:

1. The 21-day rework window and why it was chosen (industry standard per LinearB, Code Climate)
2. That severity is calibrated against the project's own baseline, not industry benchmarks
3. Any files or patterns that were excluded and why
4. That churn metrics are signals for investigation, not verdicts — human context is required to interpret them correctly