Research

Skill contextwtf/context-skills/skills/research

Discover and analyze prediction markets on Context MarketsFrom its SKILL.md

Install

npx -y skills add contextwtf/context-skills --skill research

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SKILL.md

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Research Skill

Discover markets, analyze prices, interpret oracle signals, simulate trades, and monitor activity — all read-only.

Prerequisites

Context MCP server running (npx context-markets-mcp)
No API key or private key needed for read-only tools
Portfolio analysis requires API key + private key

Shared Foundations

Market Basics

Markets are binary YES/NO contracts priced 1–99 cents. Price = implied probability (65c YES = 65% chance).
Statuses: active (trading open), pending (awaiting resolution), resolved (outcome determined), closed (no longer trading).
YES price + NO price ≈ 100 cents.

Oracle

The AI oracle evaluates markets independently of trading. context_get_oracle and ctx.markets.oracle() return evidence, summary, and confidence context. Numeric oracle quotes come from ctx.markets.latestOracleQuote(marketId) or ctx.markets.oracleQuotes(marketId), not from context_get_oracle.

Divergence < 5 cents — noise, ignore
Divergence 5–10 cents — monitor, may be opportunity
Divergence > 10 cents — significant, likely mispricing

Read-Only MCP Tools (8)

context_list_markets · context_get_market · context_get_quotes · context_get_orderbook · context_simulate_trade · context_price_history · context_get_oracle · context_global_activity

Portfolio MCP Tools (requires auth)

context_get_portfolio · context_get_balance

SDK Methods

const ctx = new ContextClient();  // no auth needed for reads

// Discovery
ctx.markets.list(params?: SearchMarketsParams)
ctx.markets.get(id: string)

// Price data
ctx.markets.quotes(marketId)
ctx.markets.orderbook(marketId, params?)
ctx.markets.fullOrderbook(marketId, params?)  // both YES and NO sides
ctx.markets.priceHistory(marketId, params?)

// Oracle
ctx.markets.oracle(marketId)
ctx.markets.latestOracleQuote(marketId)
ctx.markets.oracleQuotes(marketId)
ctx.markets.requestOracleQuote(marketId)

// Simulation
ctx.markets.simulate(marketId, { side, amount, amountType })

// Activity
ctx.markets.activity(marketId, params?)
ctx.markets.globalActivity(params?)

CLI Commands

context markets list             Search and filter markets
context markets get <id>         Market details
context markets quotes <id>      Current bid/ask/last
context markets orderbook <id>   Orderbook depth
context markets simulate <id>    Preview a trade
context markets price-history    Historical prices
context markets oracle <id>      Oracle evidence summary
context markets oracle-quotes    Oracle quote history
context markets activity <id>    Market activity feed
context markets global-activity  Cross-market activity

Available Workflows

Workflow	When to use
market-scanner	Find interesting markets by volume, trend, or liquidity
mispricing-finder	Identify oracle vs market price divergence
portfolio-analysis	Review positions, P&L, and claimable winnings
activity-monitor	Track trading volume and market movements

References

Markets API — Search params, method signatures, return types
Oracle System — Oracle resolution, quotes, mispricing detection
Price Data — Quote structure, spread analysis, price history
Simulation — Trade simulation parameters and interpretation