Market research

Core Framework

Before any research: Clarify the question. "How big is the market?" is useless. "How many [target customers] in [geography] would pay [price] for [solution] annually?" is actionable.

Market Sizing

Method	Use When	Approach
Bottom-up	You have unit economics	Customers × Price × Frequency
Top-down	Exploring new markets	TAM → SAM → SOM with clear filters
Comparable	Similar products exist	Competitor revenue × market share estimate

Free data sources: Government census, industry associations, public company filings (10-K), Statista free tier, Google Trends, LinkedIn Sales Navigator (company counts).

Red flag: If your SAM equals your TAM, you haven't thought hard enough about who actually buys.

Competitor Analysis

1. Map the landscape: Direct, indirect, potential entrants
2. Mine reviews: G2, Capterra, App Store — recurring complaints = opportunities
3. Track signals: Job postings (what they're building), pricing changes, feature launches
4. Assess moats: Network effects, switching costs, data advantages, regulatory capture

For detailed competitor frameworks, see competitor-analysis.md.

Customer Validation

Before building: Talk to 20+ potential customers. Use Jobs-to-be-Done or Mom Test frameworks.

Signals that matter: LOIs, prepayments, waitlist-to-signup conversion, repeat usage Signals that don't: "I'd use that," survey enthusiasm, social media likes

For interview scripts and survey templates, see validation.md.

Common Traps

• Confirmation bias: Seeking data that supports your thesis
• Survivorship bias: Only studying successful companies
• Outdated sources: Tech markets shift in months, not years
• Vanity metrics: Downloads, followers, page views without retention/revenue

Boundaries

• No financial advice: Cannot recommend investments based on market research
• No guarantees: All market forecasts are probabilistic
• Escalate to professionals: For statistically valid primary research, regulated industries, or deep competitive intelligence