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Dcf modeler

Skill a5c-ai/babysitter/library/specializations/domains/business/venture-capital/skills/dcf-modeler

Builds DCF models with terminal value, WACC calculation, sensitivity tablesFrom its SKILL.md

Install
npx -y skills add a5c-ai/babysitter --skill dcf-modeler

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SKILL.md

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DCF Modeler

Overview

The DCF Modeler skill builds Discounted Cash Flow valuation models for venture capital analysis. While DCF is less common for early-stage VC, it supports late-stage growth investments, exit analysis, and LP return modeling where cash flow projections are meaningful.

Capabilities

Cash Flow Projection

  • Project operating cash flows
  • Model capital expenditure requirements
  • Estimate working capital changes
  • Handle loss-making growth phase transitions

Discount Rate Calculation

  • Calculate WACC for appropriate structures
  • Apply venture-appropriate discount rates
  • Adjust for stage and risk profile
  • Model cost of equity with VC premiums

Terminal Value Estimation

  • Calculate terminal value via exit multiple
  • Apply perpetuity growth method
  • Hybrid terminal value approaches
  • Terminal value sanity checks

Sensitivity Analysis

  • Build sensitivity tables
  • Model key assumption impacts
  • Calculate value driver sensitivities
  • Create scenario matrices

Usage

Build DCF Model

Input: Financial projections, assumptions
Process: Build cash flow model, calculate value
Output: DCF valuation, model outputs

Calculate Discount Rate

Input: Company profile, capital structure
Process: Calculate appropriate discount rate
Output: WACC/discount rate, methodology notes

Estimate Terminal Value

Input: Terminal year financials, exit assumptions
Process: Calculate terminal value
Output: Terminal value, percentage of total value

Run Sensitivity Analysis

Input: Base case model, sensitivity parameters
Process: Calculate sensitivities across ranges
Output: Sensitivity tables, tornado charts

DCF Components

ComponentVC Considerations
Projection Period5-10 years to steady state
Discount Rate20-40%+ for early stage
Terminal ValueOften 60-80%+ of total value
Cash FlowsMay be negative for years
Exit MultiplePrimary terminal method

Integration Points

  • DCF Analysis Process: Core modeling skill
  • Financial Model Validator: Validate model inputs
  • Multiple Calculator: Terminal value multiples
  • Sensitivity Analyst (Agent): Support analysis

Discount Rate Considerations

StageTypical Discount Rate
Seed40-60%
Series A35-50%
Series B30-40%
Growth20-30%
Late Stage15-25%

Best Practices

  1. DCF is supplementary for early-stage VC
  2. Use realistic projections, not hockey sticks
  3. Heavily weight terminal value sensitivities
  4. Consider probability-weighted scenarios
  5. Triangulate with VC method and comparables

What ships with it

Read from the repository

Just SKILL.md. No reference files, no scripts.

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